DejaVu

When you watch the Russian tanks rolling over Georgia the only humanity in the scene comes from the faces of the soldiers and the bystanders watching.

The former group looks more mystified than triumphant, confusion clear on their faces. They don’t understand why they’re not being greeted with friendship and fraternal greetings.

The look on the faces of the bystanders is one of horror and terror; clearly they can’t believe what’s happening or cope with the consequences. I remember that look; I have seen it before.

I was in Czechoslovakia in 1968 when the Russians invaded that country putting an end to freedom that would imprison those wonderful people for another 21 years until the velvet revolution.

I was there for that first hopeful Spring that promised so much, but then resulted in a further quarter century of misery for Eastern Europe.

That invasion was supposedly about Communist solidarity but was all about the continuation of the Russian empire, and this invasion is exactly the same.

Now the Russians have confirmed to the representatives of the European Union and others that by today at noon the Russian troops would withdraw from Georgia to the semi-autonomous region of South Ossetia.

More ominously the Russians have stated that they are conducting a phased withdrawal of their soldiers and replacing them with “peacekeepers”. That sounds very much like an Orwellian euphemism. My grandmother’s description of old time cowboy films is apt, “same men, different hats!” she would laughingly shout.

As this article is written the Russian government spokesman announced that the French foreign minister had misunderstood their negotiations. The Russian forces would be withdrawing, but not necessarily by today at noon. The Russian actions become murkier, more worrying and worse with every passing hour.

Meanwhile the people of Georgia visited their churches on Sunday and prayed for a future free of their Russian occupiers.

GimletEyes

“Poland is making itself a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority.”

These are the extremely threatening words of General Nogovitsyn, Russia’s second highest-ranking military man. He was speaking after Poland has agreed with the Americans to host part of their missile shield in their country.

Obviously the Russians see the missile umbrella proposed by the Americans as a threat and are seeking to counter this with some good old- fashioned cold war rhetoric and rattling of sabers.

Over the weekend it became clear that Russian forces were now in control of various Georgian towns and cities despite the ceasefire it had agreed and signed. The agreement had allowed the Russians the right to patrol close to the ceasefire lines but it’s apparent that they are digging in and moving on wherever they feel its appropriate. Important centers like Gori and the countries main East to West highway are presently under Russian military occupation and their army are now within twenty miles of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital.

The future of this area of the world is clearly being driven by its history. Russia collectively remembers the almost ritualized humiliation it suffered at the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Its leadership is determined to reassert itself at the top of the power apex in the world. Russia sees itself as a super power and this is just the first step of the process of making the rest of the world understand this.

But this is more about Russia’s age-old spheres of influence and the geopolitical reassertion of their power. Putin and his Kremlin cronies see Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic States and the entire Caucasus region as part of their sphere of influence.

Last week, on the British television show, Newsnight, a Russian diplomat baldly stated, “If you think this Georgian side show is something wait until you see what’s going to happen in Ukraine!”

The threat is clear, the Russian bear has come out of hibernation and are fulfilling Vladimir Putin’s promise to the Russian people, that he was going to reassert their country’s will on the world.

Of course that’s really what the Russian invasion of Georgia is really all about. They have tested the West’s resolve to support their Georgian ally and found us wanting. The Russians know we are in the same mood as Neville Chamberlain at Munich. The Russians know they have an open goal in which to score. Will they decide to exploit the advantage?

America is making all the right noises, but as discussed previously in this column, there’s nothing concrete America can do militarily to resist these Russian actions. Unless America pulled out of Afghanistan or Iraq it just doesn’t have the spare capacity, the resources, or, let’s face it, the will, to take the Russians on.

America’s only other military options involve its navy and air force. All of us hope and believe they will not go strategically crazy with a disproportionately large-scale response. However a blockade or a small bombing run would be just a gesture that could, nevertheless, harvest much more serious reactions.

Much more likely is some concerted diplomatic pressure on Russia to behave. But Russia is clearly prepared to pay a diplomatic and economic price to achieve its strategic goals.

This was proved over the last week when Russia’s financial masters dumped some of its Western stocks and shares at a loss to make their anger visible.

When it was voiced to Russian diplomats that their country might be thrown out of the G8 rich countries club he burst into laughter. His point of view was obvious, “we can live without it.” That doesn’t mean that the West can or should simply stand on the sidelines as Russia’s acts threaten to conquer Georgia, and remove it from the political map.

The international community must apply intense, continuous and increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia.

The Russians must also be economically sanctioned in whatever ways that makes them understand that they will lose more than they gain by their repressive, rapacious and retrograde actions against Georgia.

ReadersandMe

This is where we explain the purpose of blogs like this one. I received the following e-mail comment from Eddy Dockett, who states that he is anonymous.

“What a load of nonsense. RIPA doesn’t provide any new powers, it just regulates the provision of the old ones (duh- it’s called the REGULATION of Investigatory Powers).
Councils already had the power to watch someone if they thought they were committing a criminal act, and benefit fraud is a criminal act which costs the UK millions. RIPA actually serves to add accountability and oversight to these powers, hence the creation of the Surveillance Commissioners.
Looks to me like you haven't read the legislation, just the papers. Well Tony, how very creative of you. I'm not surprised you list one of your favourite books at the Oxford Dictionary of Quotations- you obviously get a kick out of regurgitating other peoples' words. Lazy.
And humour? I’ve read funnier parking tickets.
Eddy Dockett”

I did read the legislation and the officially released papers. I believe that these powers are an abuse of our freedom, and their use in the circumstances outlined only serves to deepen that abuse.

No one disputes that there are benefit fraudsters and that this scourge must be combated. What we are contesting is whether the RIPA legislation and its employment are necessary for the whole of our society to combat this comparatively tiny problem in a small part of it.

This blog exists, primarily, for me to air my views without censorship, control or editing from others. To achieve this wonderful goal I forfeit some income, but it still feels worthwhile to me.

I am taking the time to explain this today because the humorless and “anonymous” Eddy, who has taken a major dislike to me, my views and even my taste in books attacked the blog yesterday.

The specific he attacked was, as you can witness, my piece on the RIPA legislation and its use. I include an excerpt of the offending article because I’m astonished that of all my writing this is what upset this reader.

“Today we can explore an inexplicable contradiction. On the one hand there is the media uproar about Google Earth and their unfolding photo mapping of every one of our streets.

On the other hand there are the local councils using the RIPA laws to enforce laws it was never intended for. I don’t understand why people are upset about a mapping picture of their home but are not upset about someone spying on their lives.

RIPA is the name of the British law designed to help counter terrorism. According to the Home Office arm of the British Government The Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000 to give it the full name legislates for using methods of surveillance and information gathering to help the prevention of crime, including terrorism.”

I stand by every word of the article.

Occasionally you get attacked by the odd, usually anonymous e mailer as I did today. He didn’t like the RIPA article and thought it wasn’t humorous.

Sometimes I don’t even try to be humorous, and sometimes, it just isn’t appropriate. From reading your e-mail Eddy I get the impression you don’t have much of a sense of humor yourself.

Mr. Dockett also attacks my profile’s stated taste in books of quotations. I’m sorry if this offends you, but perhaps you could learn something of wisdom by reading the wit of others that preceded us.

I can only recommend that, if what I write upsets you, don’t read it.

RussianBearHugs

From the e-mails received from the readers of my blogs about the Russians in Georgia it’s clear that this is an issue that worries many of us. The fact that the Russians signed a ceasefire with the Georgians a couple of days back gave many a false sense of security.

We have all witnessed on television and media reports that there are many casual and perhaps organized acts of savagery being perpetrated on local and international civilians by the South Ossetian militia.

The facts are that, so far, the Russians are tightening their grip on the areas of Georgia in which they are interested. Clearly they are also allowing the South Ossetian militia free rein to terrorize the ethnic Georgians who live amongst them. There are many stories of murder, pillage and looting of this nature. If the Russians wanted to put an end to this outrageous behavior they could do it in a moment.

Meanwhile the American government is making increasingly graver noises of disapproval of Russia’s actions.

The Western “liberal” media’s attempt to equate Russian actions in Georgia with those of the Western alliance in Iraq and Afghanistan especially angers me. They bear virtually no similarity and this argument, should we have it, is specious and intentionally mischievous. Just for starters we all should remember two names, the Taliban and Sadaam Hussein. They, and some of their most cruel, illegitimate, barbarous, deceitful and heinous acts formed part of the argument to demolish those regimes. The fact that they massacred people, tortured, gassed and pulled people’s lives apart seems to have been conveniently forgotten. What did Georgia do that had any equivalence?

Other than having the misfortune to be geographically contiguous to the Russian bear they didn’t do much wrong. Russia just doesn’t want a friend of the West living on their doorstep.

This might have a serious and adverse affect on the long-term relationships of many of Russia’s neighbors. Poland has now agreed to the stationing of American missiles on its soil after 18 months of negotiation. As Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister stated, “We have crossed the Rubicon,” referring to this move being fundamental to the future of his country’s relationship with Russia. Tusk went on to explain that this deal with America included a “mutual commitment” between his country and the USA to come to each other’s assistance in case of trouble.

This is clearly aimed at countering the perceived Russian threat although the Polish and American official stance is that the missile umbrella is really being put into place to counter the threat from various unnamed rogue states. The Russians don’t believe this and see it as a strategic threat and believe this move upsets the military balance in their region and as a consequence they have stated they will be aiming their missiles at these new missile installations.

The Russian action in South Ossetia and Georgia is not over even though they claim that it is. Listen to the words of the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, “One can forget about Georgia’s territorial integrity because I believe it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.”

On the ground the Russians give every indication that those two semi autonomous regions are being forcibly switched from nominal Georgian control to formal Russian hegemony. There might also be some of Georgia itself that the Russians will decide to keep as a victory prize. If any country dares to challenge this the whole of that country could well find itself back in the Russian empire.

TheFrozenNorth

The Policy Exchange think tank has reported that some cities in the North of England are beyond saving. The kinds of places they’re referring to are Bradford, Sunderland and Liverpool. I have visited them all at various times and they do have a point. I prefer Liverpool to the other two we list here, just because the people are more fun, but although it is the European city of culture it isn’t where many want to live.

Having said that I lived for about a year in this city of the North, Leeds a few years back, and loved most things about it. My wife hated it; in fact anything north of Watford brings her out in a cold sweat.

It does seem colder and wetter when you drive north, even if this is our collective imagination. But the truth is that if you’re born and bred in London everywhere else seems to offer less.

The report from the think tank is translated to mean that the future of the northern cities is irredeemable and any of its inhabitants with ambition should leave for London, Cambridge or such places as Oxford, all in the south of the country.

The trouble with this idea is that it would bring another million or so people to our already overcrowded southern cities and this would have the effect of rendering them as unappealing as their northern neighbors, albeit for different reasons.

We cannot simply abandon the northern cities because our politicians and their regeneration plans have almost totally failed them. As stated earlier the picture of failure is not universal. Leeds has re-invented itself as the vibrant centre of its region, and Manchester’s city centre has been similarly transformed for the better. Yes, there is a great deal of work to be done in other, outlaying parts of these two cities to bring them to where they should be but there has been a successful start.

The Policy Exchange recommendations are already materializing as the populations in the northern cities has decreased whilst the southeastern part of this country simultaneously and relentlessly grows.

Concurrently many of our countrymen are leaving the country for the same reasons. They don’t only leave for a better climate, but because they feel their country has let them down, and better opportunities are becoming available elsewhere.

There is nothing new in any of this. Human beings go where the climate, both actual and economic is most comfortable. That’s why the UK itself has found itself hosting several million immigrants over its recent past. Why, if these people come here to seek a better life, should we expect anything different of our citizens leaving, or people emigrating internally within our country, moving for a better life?

The challenge is for our country to find better solutions within the cities we cannot afford to abandon to their fate.

MoralDeficit

Yesterday a colleague told me about a young woman he knows who had been date raped. This is not one of those apocryphal stories about someone who knows someone. This really happened to a real person. Not, as it turned out, to just one young lady, but to five of them. The culprit had raped five women that he was tried for. The police brought the prosecution and were successful. The punishment was a sentence of two years in jail. This will result in the culprit being released in about one year.

This equates to about two months for each rape.

At the same time as this if the crime was robbery the punishment would be much more severe. The message is that we value our possessions far more than our people. The result is that we face a moral deficit in which it’s understood, cool or even hip to stab, rape or even kill but you will be severely punished if you are caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

There is further evidence of this dual morality occurring every day where we, as a society, seem to value possessions far higher than people. It is a grave mistake and should be addressed.

In the final analysis it’s all about moral values or the lack of them. We have all witnessed a rise in binge drinking, misbehavior in young women, and apparent increase in knife attacks amongst British young men. In a society as rich as ours this is indicative of our loss of understanding of what’s right or wrong.

The solution surely isn’t the simple increase of policing, arrest and long- term incarceration. The UK and USA already have amongst the highest numbers of people under lock and key of any society. But the numbers keep rising, which means the systems are failing.

Unquestionably we must also face up to, understand and deal with the society’s ills, which have resulted in a disproportionate number of young black men in prison. This is not a question of color, but is about social inequality brought about by a series of problems within the larger society we all inhabit.

There are simply too many young Afro-Caribbean women left to raise too many of their children without the help or presence of their partners. Where are these young men, why do they leave, and how does this ever get corrected?

Without solutions these problems will become generational with the children of these dysfunctional single parent families repeating the same mistakes.

These are not problems about color, nor are the real question about the prisons; it is about a deeper, more difficult aspect of our society. We are not educating our children properly; they are not being given a moral code that is normally the job of both parents, school and our religious and spiritual upbringing. It might be fashionable to belittle old values but without them our society is lost for the foreseeable future.

PeaceDeficit

A few years back I recall being taken around several vast, abandoned military bases in the USA that had been converted to civilian use. I remember thinking that was fine if the bogeymen had actually vanished for good as we had been told, but what if he still lurked in the dark corners of this all too small planet we share?

A few years back the governments of the UK and USA solemnly declared that we were going to reap major rewards from the “peace dividend”.

Their contention being that no realistic, symmetrical threat from the rest of the world existed after the collapse of the evil Soviet Empire. Therefore almost immediately we reduced our spending on big-ticket defense items. We cut back on all those things we had thought necessary for us to fight a big land war in Europe and another, lesser conflict elsewhere simultaneously.

Yes, the government leaders stated, we would have to deal with the Islamic fundamentalists and similar types of threat, and yes, there were some little countries with whom our forces might have to contend. But for these asymmetric threats, there was not going to be a need for new building programs for capital ships, main battle tanks and big armies.

Instead we would need lighter, quicker forces we could deploy with extreme speed anywhere in the world. The days when we had to plan for pitched battles on the plains of Europe, or elsewhere, were over for good.

We could, so the argument went, therefore save money on unnecessary and wasteful defense expenditure. But my argument is that we were premature in these and similar reductions in our military spending and preparedness.

Tell these myths to the people of Georgia today. Now their country faces the threat of total occupation and only continues to exist as democratic and free entity while Russia decided its next move and tests the water of world opinion. The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been pleading for a ceasefire for the last two days but the Russians are stating that their first priority is the safety of Russian citizens who they are pledged to protect. First amongst these, we can suppose, are the Russian soldiers now advancing on all fronts in Georgia!

Both sides in this rapidly worsening conflict should remember that there never is a good war or a bad peace.

Now, when we in the Western democracies might well need those ships, planes and men we don’t have them readily available. No one pretends that Russia is the same kind of threat as the Soviet Union; but it might turn out to be worse.

It was far easier to identify the evil inherent in the brutal suppression of freedom and dissent within the Soviet Union and it was also less difficult to predict the actions of such a centrally administered bureaucracy. In other words we could pretty much work out what that ruling gerontocracy was going to do, and how we should react. They were unsmiling, clearly our sworn enemies and wore bad suits and looked the part of Bond villains.

China under the despotic leadership of Mao Tse-Tung was also much easier to comprehend in geo- political terms than the political doughnut it has since become. The Chinese People's Republic is a curious mixture of a capitalist covering of sweet enrichment over a hard core Communist center. No one can know for sure how that will work out in practice; the world has never experienced anything like it.

Look at the polished and media savvy leaders of China and Russia as they smile broadly for the cameras, and understand that the level of threat to freedom has probably increased in direct proportion to their level of sophistication, whilst at the same moment our economies hit free fall. At precisely the moment we need to be strong so we don’t have to act tough, we’re visibly too weak. Don’t, for a second, think the Russians and Chinese are not calculating this into their strategy.

You watch the brutal oppression of dissidents in Tibet and elsewhere under Chinese hegemony and you realize that should the Chinese government turn its mind, energy and resources to increasing its pressure on its Asian neighbors we have to be ready to assist in resistance. The situation in Taipei (Taiwain) is calm now, but can we safely assume this will continue if China is angered or becomes impatient?

Russia is also beginning to flex its dormant imperial muscle and it makes an unappealing and scary picture. We’ve got to realize where this can lead. If Russia finds it is possible to force the issue as desired in Georgia there will be little or nothing we can do to stop it taking similar actions in the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Therefore it is imperative that Nato, led by Britain and the United States does more than make polite noises of protest against Russia’s disguised takeover in Georgia.

This is where it becomes extremely difficult for Europe to act in a concerted manner against Russia. We have become very reliant on the supply of Russian energy to our collective power grids. If we push them about Georgia be ready for them to push back.

That leaves America alone to do more than make noises of protest. No one seriously expects that George Bush will get out the well-battered American big stick with which to combat Russia on the ground. This leaves the US with the discredited economic sanction weapon, which might end up hurting it more than it damages a now, much strengthened Russia.

The only military option the US would have is the use of its ships and planes to harass and bomb Russian military targets and they are simply not going to be that dangerously adventurous. This all leaves Russia with a free pass to do what it wants in the Caucasus region, and that might, very worryingly, awaken another dream for the Russian hawks. If they can get away with this in Georgia how about the Ukraine, and if that’s possible, wouldn’t it be great to get back at the Baltic States?

The UK and the USA and Nato must rethink priorities fast and re-evaluate medium to long-term military spending plans.

Otherwise as China holds onto Tibet and Russia toys with Georgia we have learned nothing. These two events roll out in different parts of the world, and seemingly don’t connect to the peace dividend until you realize that they form part of what is actually a peace deficit. As the Roman writer Vegetius stated, “Let him who desires peace prepare for war.”

You don’t walk down a dangerous, dark alley at night and declare to anyone who might listen, “come and get me, I’m not armed and can’t defend myself,” unless you’re crazy.

The big bad bogeyman never went away, he was just hiding in the dark whilst we went to sleep. It’s time to WAKE UP!