Monday, September 29, 2008

ConservativeIdiots

Just when you thought you had seen it all, along comes a new improved idiot who proves you knew nothing. Step forward and take a bow the UK Conservative Party’s Shadow Minister of Transport, a woman called Theresa Villiers, Member of Parliament for Chipping Barnet.

It is difficult to remember that this is the UK’s government in waiting, they almost can’t lose the next election, and everyone, including the present government knows this. However today they gave a clear indication that if ever there was a group capable of turning certain victory into debate they might be it. They are unquestionably trying their utmost to lose the next election if it is humanly possible.

Theresa Villiers made her speech at the Conservative Party Conference in which she announced that a Conservative Government would say no to a third runway at Heathrow, and concentrate instead on the advantages of her unfolding high speed rail plan.

The entire world knows that there is a desperate need for the third Heathrow airport runway so we are left to wonder how this Shadow Minister intends to overcome the problem of too many people wanting to use the congested Heathrow airport bottleneck. It’s simple really, she intends to ignore this reality and instead is pointing the way forward via rail.

Is this an existing rail service, of course not, it is, at her optimistic best estimate, going to be available in about 15 years, and the last such undertaking took a quarter of a century.

In the intervening couple of decades or so we shouldn’t worry that we are throwing away our pre-eminent position as the travel hub between mainland Europe and America, because at least the Greens will be happy!

Yes, Theresa says her Party has plans to introduce a new phase of high-speed rail to the UK, in what she described as a “momentous step forward for Britain’s transport infrastructure”.

She went on to describe how a Conservative Government will build a new high speed rail line between Leeds, Manchester, Birmingham and London, cutting journey times between Birmingham and London to 40 minutes and between Leeds and London to less than an hour and a half.

We have all heard this before and it ignores the fact that people want to do their journeys largely by plane, particularly when it is an inter connecting onwards journey.

Theresa, the Shadow Transport Secretary, said that high speed rail would have many benefits for the UK which she claims will help businesses and generating huge economic benefits, potentially to the value of £60 billion. Let me ask how, when, where to who?

Apparently, she goes on to claim that this will also heal long-standing divisions in the UK economy by shrinking the distance between north and south. But I would ask her why enhanced air travel would not achieve the same result, quicker and cheaper.

Another specious claim by the Shadow Minister is that it will relieve over-crowding on existing lines. Again, we demand details, in which way, when and at what cost will this be achieved?

Last in this entirely stupid list of bogus claim demonstrates the newly minted Green credentials of today’s hopeless Tories; in this one she argues that her policies will be “helping to protect future generations from climate change.” This claim centers around the idea that trains are good and planes are bad. How about the disruption, cost and delay caused by trying to construct a whole new rail network for super fast trains?

Theresa then stakes her claim for posterity, “It will leave a lasting legacy for the future - and it will lay the foundations for a high speed network that I believe will one day stretch across the country.”

She went on to state, “We will target construction of the new high speed line to begin in 2015, with full completion by 2027.”

Theresa is featured on the Conservative web site in which it states, “Theresa is the Shadow Secretary of State for Transport. She owns a Mini, but spends a lot of time traveling round Britain on public transport.” It tells you everything about this series of Green lite policies and statements.

How’s this for an idea, what if we built the new rail service PLUS the third runway PLUS the new airport to the East of London, PLUS a new inner Motorway where the present North and South Circular roads struggle through the beltway of inner London? Do that and you will have done your job properly Theresa, don’t do that and the chronic British transport situation is just doomed to get ever worse.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

BritishPowerinOverseasHands

This week has seen Britain allow EDF to purchase its entire nuclear energy capacity. For the uninitiated let’s make it clear that EDF is a French company, part owned by the government of that country. Let us also clarify that the French would never allow the reverse to happen, and they are right and the UK is wrong.

How can the UK justify allowing about 20% of its entire energy generation to fall into the hands of a foreign country that might not always have the same interests as those of the U.K?

The reasons given are that EDF has proven recent experience in construction of nuclear power plants, know how to operate them, and have all the know how necessary to achieve the vast nuclear building program the UK is going to need in the next 20 years.

The country is going to need to replace all but one of the existing generations of nuclear power plants with new, increased capacity and ultra -efficient. Even so there is the real possibility of an energy shortfall within the short to medium term that will not be met by the currently envisaged construction program.

Of course we all can and do support alternative energy generation but we also know that this is just going to be supplementary to our needs, not a replacement for conventional fuels. If we can get this to meet up to 20% of our medium term needs we shall have done brilliantly, more than this is simply mass delusion. The technology is not efficient enough and is too costly.

Furthermore it mystifies everyone that the United Kingdom has more or less totally stopped coal mining when it has more than 200 years of coal supplies under the ground. The country desperately needs energy generation, and it is available under our feet, but our government ignores it. This makes no sense but is allowed to continue as we import coal.

Short-term commercial interests may inform our decisions, and imported coal is for now, cheaper than what we can dig ourselves, but this should have been a strategic decision for the national long-term interest. The UK needs its own fuel and power generation. As a nation I believe the country took the same, mistaken direction over certain other key industries and allowing control over our power generation is a national tragedy in the making.

Friday, September 26, 2008

ComethTheHour

President Bush made a television address to his nation in which he stated that this is the most frightening financial period for nearly eighty years and that the American economy was in grave and imminent danger of a panic that could cause it to shut down.

Today we will discover how true the adage is, “Cometh the hour, cometh the man.” We certainly need to see that man come riding over that Washington hill on his white charger or we all have increased financial problems coming our way in a very short time.

The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffet clearly stated that the politicians have to get behind this plan, he likened the present situation to an economic Pearl Harbor and he’s not a man known for hyperbole.

Time and the situation dictate that should the folks on Capitol Hill turn down the plan on offer they have to come up with a workable alternative immediately. The seizing up of money currently being witnessed inter bank cannot be allowed to continue without it fundamentally damaging the entire market system.

It is vital that Obama and McCain join with the President wholeheartedly and are seen to enthusiastically support the agreed way forward. If not the dissenting voice had better have a great excuse when America’s voters ask them why they let the world financial system crash because of their short-term political gain.

This crisis and raw politics threatened to delay the first presidential debate as John McCain challenged Barack Obama to postpone tonight's television debate and unite to help Washington fix the financial mess. Obama rebuffed his GOP rival, saying the next president needs to "deal with more than one thing at once."

President Bush warned Americans and lawmakers reluctant to pass a $700 billion financial rescue plan that failing to act fast risks wiping out retirement savings, rising foreclosures, lost jobs and closed businesses. "Our entire economy is in danger," he said. In response the financial markets soared Thursday after the President’s talk with the nation.

The stakes cannot be bigger, as the American people are, in effect, being asked to write out a blank cheque to bail out Wall Street from its own mistakes and greed. But there are few viable alternatives other than a total meltdown, which is simply not sustainable and would lead to a worldwide financial catastrophe.

Some results of this danger are already evident when we see that banks have stopped lending to each other and, instead are hoarding their cash. This increases the risks of weaker banks going bust and then the dominoes could all fall down. What we know already is that if a deal is not done financial hell will break lose.

None of us know whether the necessary arrangements are going to be sealed in the coming hours and days but the signs are that the fundamentals of a deal are still to be agreed in Congress and we can only hope that the momentum for it is inescapable.

There is an old saying that when America’s economy sneezes the rest of the world will catch a cold. Right now Wall St. has pneumonia and this could result in a Second financial Great Depression. We must get it right in America, now, for all our sakes, as this outcome must be avoided at all costs.

President Bush called both his potential successors to the White House to help him cement the rescue plan formulated by Henry (Hank) M. Paulson, Jr., Secretary of the Treasury and Ben Bernake, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The immediate result in this fast running comic tragedy was a political impasse.

John McCain offered an alternative last minute plan in which the government does not buy the toxic debts, but offered insurance protection against them. I agree that this plan has merit, but this is arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic as it sinks. We cannot wait until we are under the cold and unforgiving water before we have a workable plan in place, which just needs to work and inspire confidence. We can add bells and whistles later.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

ProphetofDoom

Some say I am a prophet of doom because I make sweeping statements about what I project for our future. Sadly I have to continue in this manner. I was right about the collapse in banking and property prices and the consequences for the economy and I believe I am right about the huge danger Iran poses with its nuclear development program.

Twenty-seven years ago, the world’s media condemned Israel for attacking and destroying an Iraqi nuclear reactor. Years later, many of the same journalists who had condemned Israel admitted that they had been wrong, and that the Israeli attack had been justified, was in fact, essential.

Now, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel "off the map." The fact that the Iranian nuclear program is advancing rapidly necessitates that we take this threat very seriously. At the United Nations on Wednesday, Israel’s President, Shimon Peres correctly called Iran a central obstacle to peace in the Middle East.

Peres called Iran a center of fanaticism, which supports the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, thus preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. He went on to state that Iran was still developing a nuclear capacity.

“Tehran combines long-range missiles and short-range minds,” Peres said. “It is pregnant with tragedies. The General Assembly and the Security Council bear responsibility to prevent agonies before they take place.”

Peres' speech followed one day after that by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking from the same podium, called Zionists “murderers” who manipulate global finance and politics to serve their “acquisitive” interests.

In case there is any doubt I want to make it clear that I am stating for the record that this is a thinly disguised anti Semitic attack linking the Jewish people with the global financial meltdown. Not since the Nazi party and their blood libels has their been a better spokesman for pure hatred of the Jews than this disastrous leader of the once noble country of Iran.

I watched the Iranian leader smile as he addressed the distinguished forum whilst most countries gave him a respectful audience. Until you listen to what he is saying it is easy to get lulled into a sense of unreality, in which his apologists say he doesn’t really mean the more extreme of his utterances. The facts don’t bear that argument out. He means precisely what he says.

It is a disgrace to Iran and to the human race that this person is allowed to address an international forum dedicated to peace and truth and make such slanderous attacks with impunity. People initially laughed at Hitler and ignored what he said and wrote. It was one of history’s great mistakes. Let us not repeat that tragedy, we must heed the Iranian leaders’ words very carefully because he means them and as a consequence the world must act against him before he causes the greatest catastrophe of all.

Peres went on to urge neighbour Syria to engage in face-to-face peace talks following the example set by Egypt and Jordan, both of which have concluded peace agreements with Israel. He went on to predict that peace with the Palestinians would be achieved within the coming year.

Concluding his remarks, Peres donned a kipah and recited a prayer for peace in Hebrew and English.

While diplomatic efforts, and some prayers, continue to try and stop the Iranian nuclear program, Israel has repeatedly stated that all options for stopping Iran are on the table, and this includes military force.

It would be refreshing to believe that the media learnt from their mistakes in 1981 when they misjudged the Iraqi nuclear threat to Israel and what the response should have been. Many journalists and opinion makers appear to have forgotten that lesson and are stupidly shaping public opinion by condemning any possible Israeli strike on Iran.
Israel and the other democracies have a duty to ignore these fools and put a stop to this threat from Iran, which is real and moving closer every day.

I’m sorry to upset those of you who think the world’s present financial difficulties are our biggest problem, because that is a huge, frightening issue, but it is dwarfed by the danger posed by Iran. If the World does not act Israel will have to do so in self-defence.

Unless he is stopped, Ahmadinejad plans to wipe Israel off the face of the world’s maps and to kill every Jewish man, woman and child in that country as soon as he is able. We must not remain silent; to be silent makes us all accomplices of a man aiming to lead a new holocaust.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

QuestionsAnswers

Yesterday at the Labour Party conference in the UK there was a make or break speech by the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. He wasn’t broken, but he wasn’t necessarily made.

His wife, Sarah, preceded the P.M. at the rostrum and she drew a standing ovation for her guts before she said a word, she lends him the humanity and warmth he finds hard to deliver. She says she asked to speak so that she could say how proud she is that her husband is motivated each and every day to work on behalf of all the people of the country, she showed a brief film that showed some of the Party’s claimed success over the last years of the Labour government.

By the time his wife had shown the pep rally type film with pop music pumping the cheers were ringing out. Suddenly the mood was warm and it was like something pent up had burst in favour of the Prime Minister, and he clearly enjoyed the major standing ovation, which was elongated and genuine before he spoke.

The hall was absolutely packed and buzzing with anticipation. The crowd demanded to know what the tone and vision would be for the next year or two.

The gossip before the speech was pretty downbeat apart from the professional cheerleaders. The more thoughtful Labour Party supporters were keen to rally behind their leader as he leads them toward the next general elections.

I will tell you “Who I am, what I believe, and what I can lead this country to achieve, I know the people have concerns about the future of this country”, Brown stated with more passion and flair than he usually displays, “A fair Britain for the new age!” he promised his audience, when the present global financial meltdown is sorted out.

As Brown said, “When I was first standing for election in Fife 25 years ago it was to serve the country I love.” And the message was clear, he still does feel the same drive and energy, he continued,” If people accuse me of being too serious well let me say there is a great deal to be serious about.”

Then he trotted out some very obvious but long cherished New Labour Party principles, “Every child should have a good school” and “We are, we remain and we will be in the future, pro business and pro enterprise. At all times we will put people first.”

He then took a clear side swipe at his Conservative rival leader, David Cameron, “My children aren’t props, they’re people.” He made this statement in light of the fact that Cameron has shown his family eating breakfast on his web site and apparently Brown has refused to use his family this way. In this context it is very strange that Brown saw no contradiction in his allowing Sarah, his wife, to introduce his speech.

Brown then made a more interesting statement with which I agree entirely, “It’s now the global age, we haven’t seen anything like this since the industrial age began. What happened in the last week will be studied by generations to come.”

Then came his promise for what he called the New Settlement, and which many years ago, a great American President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, during the Depression, called The New Deal. He wants to rebuild the world financial system around four clear principles. These are 1. Transparency on all transactions 2. Sound banking 3. Responsibility for your actions, so that if a financial institution cannot use as an excuse that they didn’t know the risk they were running and walk away from it. 4. Integrity, bonuses must not be for short-term gain but for long-term success, hard work and effort. These must be Global standards and this demands global supervision.

He added that we must end the dictatorship of oil and move to an 80% cut in the UK’s carbon emissions by 2050 working towards the lessening of climate change.

At approximately the same time the leaders of the American financial system were facing their political masters in Congressional committee. Their task was quite simply to sell their package of measures to some deeply cynical politicians on both sides of the spectrum.

Right wing Republicans feel, with some truth, that the proposed financial rescue package is almost socialist in nature, leaving, as it does, huge swathes of the American economy publicly owned and controlled. They labeled this Un-American, and it is. That doesn’t mean it isn’t the right thing to do. A National Health Service and Gun Control would also be considered Un-American in this definition, but would be greatly welcomed by many equally patriotic Americans.

The more left leaning Democrats on the committee don’t think the measures go far enough and would like to see punishments and penalties and yet more regulations imposed on the financial birds of prey they consider guilty of dragging us all into this financial quagmire. Again they have a point to consider, but more regulation will only drive more financial control away from Wall St. and off shore to rivals eager to snap up the business.

We can only hope that everyone realizes, in time, it is probably right to have a package of rescue measures somewhere down the middle. We need to see these measures moving forward before the weekend. The markets will react very badly to prolonged political indecision that they simply don’t comprehend.

I am not partisan, but I do know that it is essential that we all support our present leaders through this present situation. The present crisis transcends petty differences and we need the leaders we have to see us through these problems for the sake of our entire planet.

“Fairness is in our DNA,” said Brown, during his excellent and rousing speech that ended this part of a very difficult week. For the first time in a long while the Prime Minister took the battle to the Conservatives. This was a real Labour speech from a real Labour leader.

Brown will continue the UK’s huge public spending programme because he believe in it and he in a future for a British century and he is determined it will be. He claimed his Party’s government has been responsible for 1 million new businesses, 3 million new jobs and 1 million people benefiting from a minimum wage, and all of this he humanized very effectively.

In the bubble of love that is a Party Conference this speech was considered a huge success from a man who came out of his corner ready to fight. “We don’t give in and we never will!” was Brown’s keynote message, and we all need some of this fighting spirit to be employed on our behalf by all our leaders in the biggest economic battle we have ever faced.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

FindingFinancialSolutions

Presently in the USA a man called Hank Paulson has possibly the most influential job in the world. He is the man putting together the plans to bail out the economy of his country, and from there, we all hope, that of the world.

The first step, already stage managed by his boss, President Bush, was to restore some faith in the system. This was achieved, simply, by showing some true grit in the face of the oncoming storm. Letting the global economy know that America was determined to act in economic self- defense was the first, vital step in saving our collective fall over the precipice into a financial void.

I was talking to an economist and she said something very wise to me, to the effect that any measure at any cost was better than the disaster we were about to suffer. I believe she was right, but as I said to her, there would be a cost, but none of us can know how huge it might be.

Hank Paulson is not a well-known figure, and he is under enormous pressure to do this impossible job and get it right. However like the curate’s egg, it’s likely that the result will be good in parts. The inevitable consequence of the last few weeks and months is that aspects of laissez faire capitalism will never be the same again, and maybe that’s just as it should be.

However, with the back door, but essential nationalization of Northern Rock in the UK and Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG in the USA, the re-alignment of big banking and the federal plan to buy non performing or toxic debts we face a very different future. The government of the USA now owns more than half of all mortgages in the USA. In the UK we used to call such a scenario “socialism: red in tooth and claw”. It’s hard to imagine that America is now in this situation.

At the Labour Party conference in the UK there are calls for the re-nationalization of the formerly publicly owned energy utility companies and a well received call for more legislation and regulation of the City institutions considered guilty, via their short term greed, of getting us all into this financial mess. It begins to sound like the bad old days that preceded New Labour, and supporters should remember, their Party was unelectable.

In the USA the Democratic party were holding up the necessary legislation so that the details of the financial bailout could be better considered. This could be a huge political error however right they might be within the context of the tactical details. The global community, especially the financial section of it, demands immediate action, and won’t understand or sympathize with anything that holds this up. The market in the States almost immediately crashed in reaction and the dollar plummeted against a basket of currencies. This is not the time for politics as normal!

Monday, September 22, 2008

FinancialSurvival

Hold the presses, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown apologized. This is not something anyone can remember, and it was a little frightening.

This might well be the beginning of the end game for the Prime Minister’s loosening grip on his seal of office. Looking more relaxed than has been the case in the recent past he even smiled at some of the forceful questioning he was confronted with during several tough interview sessions over the last couple of days.

I think he’s smiling because he knows how desperate his political situation has become and realizing that the game is up has at last relaxed with the shrug of the shoulders a person about to get executed might display.

Perversely Brown is much more likeable when he relaxes and has a script he’s happy with. That script is based around the hypothesis that his government has done a great, solid, dependable job, that the problems are global and therefore the solution has to also be global but that the UK is singularly well placed to recover.

The British Labour Party is holding its annual conference in Manchester, England this week. It is sandwiched between the Liberal-Democrats and the Conservatives and usually it heralds the announcement of new initiatives, fresh beginnings and re-launches. This time around Gordon Brown will be thrilled to come out in one piece.

“I want to do better”, Gordon Brown said; admittedly he couldn’t do much worse in the eyes of most of the population. He went on to say, “I always want to do better. My school motto was, I must try my utmost”. This is the first time many of us can remember Mister Brown ever admitting that he is fallible so openly.

This is a testing time and no one yet knows whether Gordon Brown is made of the right stuff to pass that test. He is going to find it very difficult to convince the country that he will pull the nation through,

The crisis is in the Labour leadership according to Charles Clarke, a former Senior Minister, and no friend of his old adversary, is Brown himself. Clarke’s view is that he believes the leader must resign to give the party and the nation a leadership it will believe in. Or put it another way; give Labour a chance to recover in time for the election after next, as he has already written off his Party’s chances for the next contest.

The doubters will have their say, but at the conference there are more that will back him this week than not. Brown is clearly correct about one thing, this is a global crisis, not of his or Britain’s making. He will make it though this week, and to be honest the nation and the world needs stolid men like this right now.

Within the Labour Party there is no credible threat to Brown’s leadership, but this doesn’t mean there won’t be a threat to it after the conference. Right now no one is going to put his or her head over the parapet; but the time will come.

Next on the firing line was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling who appeared on this morning’s breakfast television. He still hasn’t worked out that his cause would be better served by his acquiring rudimentary communication skills. He is awful at the most basic question and answer technique without which modern politicians cannot survive.

The rather gentle interviewer on GMTV asked Darling 4 times whether he would rule out tax increases to pay for the present difficulties and he would not utter the words, “Yes” or “No”.

Quite clearly he cannot give an absolute reply right now, and he would be wrong to do so, but couldn’t he just say, “We have a problem, and I’ll do my best to keep taxes down but honestly no one knows the answer to that question just yet.”

I am not sure whether Brown and Darling’s recent pronouncements mean that they were not aware of the kinds of trades being undertaken and consequential bonuses given over the last few years in the City of London, or whether they were aware, and simply thought them OK. Either way they are culpable, probably to a greater extent if they knew and did nothing and are hypocritically now blaming their former City cronies.

Watching these two men, who run our country you are not filled with confidence and this is ironic since their performance improved since the Northern Rock fiasco. They seem to have been consistently in advance of their American colleagues reaction, which has been a bit too slow at times.

The economic and political price of the actions being taken at both edges of the Atlantic Anglo-Saxon financial world are yet to be known, but the price for inaction would have been catastrophic and unthinkable. The end game is still cloudy and undecided but there might be a glimmer of light if everyone now remembers the route to financial survival is to hold his or her nerve.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

PakistanTerrorism

Last night in Islamabad, Pakistan there was another horrendous bombing. This time the target for the terrorists is the Marriott hotel that managed to kill more than fifty people and injure hundreds more, many of them critically.

There were security barriers in operation at this hotel, favorite of the rich and powerful of Pakistan and foreign visitors. This is the third major attack of Marriott hotels in the city.

It is no accident that this attack happened in the same period when the new Pakistani government was pledging itself to combating terrorism in the country.

Neither the local Taliban or Al Qaeda have yet claimed responsibility for this evil and cowardly attack on civilians but surely incidents like this will cause Pakistan to get off the fence and decide how they see their future.

It’s a probability that attacks like this one will cause one of two results in this blighted country. Either there will be a craven caving in to the terrorist organizations or they will choose to fight so that they are not swallowed by events. But this would be a huge mistake; for if they do give in they will eventually lose control of their own country and destiny.

It is legitimate to question whether everyone in each department of the government and its agencies shared the Pakistani government’s avowed combative stance against terrorist organizations. There are many question marks over some of the actions of the Pakistani intelligence agencies when dealing with these groups.

The relationship of the Western powers with Pakistan remains somewhat ambiguous and will do so until it is believed that they are a trustworthy regime. At the moment question marks remain over their underlying attitude to the terrorist groups, how they handle their nuclear weapons and how they act towards the combatants from the Afghanistan war who they allow to simply slip across their border for training, supplies and rest and recreation.

There has long been an official Pakistani blind eye turned to the regions running through the blurred lines of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, peopled on both side by the Pathan people. The Pakistani authorities would do well to remember that you can’t dine with the devil, the price is poisonous and will kill.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

WheretheMoneyWillComeFrom

This is a very brief but pointed blog. The US Federal government yesterday announced that they were working on a plan to buy toxic and worthless debt from the American banks struggling under a mountain of the poisonous paper.

This will cost many hundreds of billions of dollars.

Putting this into context, this month the American government had its defense budget, for $612.5 billion waved through the legislature.

There are innumerable other costs mounting up for America that are beginning to look insupportable.

I have one question, where is all this money going to come from?

If the Feds print it we will end up with runaway inflation, which could ruin the lives of future generation.

If they borrow the necessary funds we will find ourselves owing money overseas, where it would have to come from potential foes in Asia and Arabia. We cannot be in hock to people who could pressure us to do things against our long term, strategic interests.

If the decision is to raise the money through taxing us we will be crippled by the size of the debt.

Unquestionably the announcement by President Bush that the Feds were going to take this action did relieve some of the huge anxiety that had built up in the stock markets of the world but we do need to question where the money is going to come from and what are the long term ramifications of this probably essential action.

You can’t help believe that this might well be the long heralded beginning of the end of America as the key financial superpower. Maybe the baton is being reluctantly pried from America’s grasp by hungrier, richer, more successful Asian powers. This would result in the USA and possibly the EU, being relegated from a long held and easy assumption of pre-eminence.

There is no doubt that when a country’s financial muscles atrophy and fail it’s military and political dominance will also wither to a similar extent.

Therefore, unless the Western powers are ready to abdicate their long held hegemony they will have to do more than survive, they have to find a way to prosper. That is going to prove extremely difficult.

Friday, September 19, 2008

TzipiLiviniforIsraeliPM

One of the most important news items in the world went largely unreported in the mass media over the last couple of days. I refer to the victory of Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister of Israel, who was newly elected leader of the Kadima party. This should result in her succeeding Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister. She is a feisty, attractive woman in her middle years, and no one doubts that she has presence, style and a smart brain. Now we’re going to find out if she can deliver in the Mid-East, which is never easy but is always unforgiving.

Tzipi Livni aims to take the office of prime minister and has started working on building a new coalition government. The Israeli constitution allows her six weeks to accomplish this task, but the President, Shimon Peres, wants her to do it in a few days in order that no momentum is lost in the various sets of current and separate peace negotiations.

This is the woman, after all, who has been holding peace negotiations with the Palestinians plus the Syrians via the good offices of Turkey and last but not least, planning what Israel’s response will be with regards to the threat of Iran going nuclear and its continuing threats to the Jewish state.

Many Arab leaders in the Middle East regard Livni as a moderate, levelheaded foreign minister. Aluf Benn, a columnist and diplomatic editor of Haaretz, Israel's leading intellectual daily said, "She's been [Ehud] Olmert's No. 2 for two years, and she spent five years in [Ariel] Sharon's government. She's not exactly coming from nowhere. She's been in the system; she was born into it," he says, referring to Livni's background.

Her parents were members of the Irgun, the hard-line pre-independence Zionist militia that in Israel is regarded as being equivalent to having come over with the Mayflower or having fought in the American Revolution.

The official result of her Kadima Party election showed her beating Shaul Mofaz, her closest competitor by just one percentage point. But the tough-minded Ms. Livni strode into the political limelight as if that made no difference.

Livni said her party's choice demonstrated that "there is a different kind of politics. For a very long time I was told there was no such thing, and today Kadima proved that there is."

Her use of the language of political change has drawn parallels with presidential candidate Barack Obama's campaign – and this permeated Livni's pronouncements as she moved from backstage diplomat to front of house policymaker. Unlike many other Israel's politicos of various hues, she is the proud owner of a totally clean reputation.

Livni has created a strong working relationship with her Palestinian counterparts in the renewed peace process, which she invigorated. Domestically she created a buzz because, if successful, she will be the second woman in Israel's history to become prime minister.

But she’s no magician and there are many Israelis and others who warn against unrealistic expectations of sweeping progress on the main issues in the immediate future.

There are all the normal complications that exist in the Byzantine political scene in both Israeli and amongst the Palestinians. There is also the certainty of both sides waiting to see who will be the next US president before moving trying to finalize on any agreement.

When it comes to the feasibility of peacemaking, the same internal divisions amongst the two peoples remain. The basic, underlying problems on the Palestinian side stay the same, with Hamas in charge of Gaza and Fatah holding onto security in the West Bank by their fingernails.

Golda Meir in 1969 was the last Israeli woman Prime Minister. Livni, like Meir, is more appreciated overseas than at home, where she still has many foes. There is little doubt that she faces a tough time initially due to her win over Mofaz being so tight. His is the more typical profile of the ex military insider with much more military knowledge and hawkish credentials. He represents the archetypal picture of the tough guys Israel usually chooses when worried about the prospect of another war.

Livni, however, earned her image of understanding Israel's complex security challenges because of her work as a Mossad officer dealing with intelligence matters.

"The national mission … is to create stability quickly," Livni told reporters. "On the level of government in Israel, we have to deal with difficult threats."

Livni's first, obligatory function is to form a workable coalition government, not a foregone conclusion in politically complex Israel. When Olmert formally resigns, the coalition's government dissolves. Olmert will probably remain as caretaker Prime Minister until a new coalition is approved.

Livni has 42 days to assemble a new coalition; if she does she will almost certainly be the next prime minister. If she can't, new elections will be held early next year.

Huge problems confront her. Shas, one of the long-term coalition partners in the government, state that it won't join a government that will agree to divide Jerusalem. The city has been governed by Israel since they conquered the part they didn’t already control in the 1967 Six Day War.

The situation is very complex and every party will come along with their demands: Shas on Jerusalem and demanding more funds for their children. Labor will have its own demands, but this is Israel, so Likud will want something else.

Livni is not famed for her ability to wheel and deal, but she is rightly proud of her reputation for integrity. Perversely that may make it more difficult for her to survive in this political hot house. I can’t see any real progress across the board until the next elections, in 2009, but the world should all wish this strong woman much luck and a prevailing wind, we could all do with some stability and peace in her very difficult part of the world.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

WhatNext

The ever-unfolding financial crisis moved forward rapidly today. The big news is that HBOS is in the final stages of a shotgun merger with Lloyds TSB, in fact the retail banking and mortgage behemoth is being taken over.

Normally such a giant financial institutional merger would not be allowed as it is totally against normal competition rules. But these are certainly not normal times, and rightly the rules need to be relaxed if it is clearly in the interests of the world at large.

Morgan Stanley shares have fallen 30% today, and Goldman Sachs shares are also plummeting. After watching Merrill Lynch and HBOS being sold short in the last few days it’s clear that Morgan Stanley is now being targeted by more short sellers. These people profit by driving shares downwards and then buy back in at a reduced price. They only lose when the price goes up, so these leeches make money by ruining businesses. Some consider shorting a safety valve for the market place, when the general trend of stock prices is upward.

I believe this practice needs to be looked at closely and either banned outright or, failing this, it should be suspended when any stock moves more than 5% in any trading day.

AIG, after having $80 billion pumped into it, has been, in effect, nationalized, and this is the first time in history that the American government has taken such an action. The reason for this is clear, the economy simply could not survive AIG collapsing.

Barclays has nearly concluded the purchase of the property related parts of Lehman Brothers, which could mean that not all the staff of that company in the US will lose their jobs.

However if you examine the most important bank rate, that for money lent between banks, otherwise known as LIBOR, it’s sticking at a high level and most worrying of all, indicates that money is simply not flowing between the banks, nor will it do so until this rate is lowered.

As a consequence of the shrinking economy the unemployment rate in the UK has suddenly gone to its highest figure in a decade, and although still at historically manageable levels, is becoming yet another thing to worry about.

The governments of both the UK and USA must take a clear lead in acknowledging these problems and dealing with them.

More important than this, they must, as part of the G8 work out a strategy and publicly express it, rather than react in an ad hoc basis.

We all need to clearly understand why some companies will be bailed out whereas others are allowed to collapse.

This drama will become a tragedy unless and until there is international co-ordination between the central governments of the G8 and the major financial institutions.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

ASteadyHand

Yesterday Lehman Brothers went bust, and Merrill Lynch was bought for $55 billion by The Bank of America, which is about a twentieth of what its bosses said it was worth less than a year ago. In fact Lehman Brothers were figured to have 110% of the liquidity it needed just one week ago. This is a fast moving avalanche of bad financial news that is set to run for a while. It hasn’t bottomed out as yet, and no one quite knows where it might end.

It is made even more frightening by the fact that thousands of jobs are beginning to be shred as the financial and other sectors of the economy begin to contract. This is the second leg of the nightmare scenario in which the entire economy collapses as it did during the Great Depression. As yet, thank the Lord, there is no new hunger to go with the job losses, companies closing and homes being lost, and let’s all hope it stays that way. But this is a hope, not a certainty as everything is up for grabs right now.

So what happened to make this, and much more happen? It’s very simple; there has been a break down of banker’s trust in each other. Regular people have begun to doubt big time and bankers, those pillars of our society, have lost their faith in each other.

This started about a year ago when the sub prime mortgage market began to implode. That started to show itself with min runs on banks in various countries such as the UK’s own Northern Rock. We saw that dreaded sight of people lining the street trying to get their savings out. Now in the States, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we have more imposed nationalization that, on the surface seems the only way to go to save the situation, but also could be considered illegal. It does also mean that no sane investor in the world will invest anything in British or American banks and many others, until the situation has been brought under control.

One of the main agents of this breakdown of confidence and trust in our system is obvious but needs to be re-stated. The bankers paid themselves grotesque bonuses in London last year £17 billion ($30 billion+) after years of doing so. There is no other way of describing this except for the image of pigs at a trough. This is no different to similar size sums being paid in New York City and had all the hallmarks of people with no thought about the effect of their greed on others.

The American government clearly made a choice not to bail out Lehman Brothers after having done exactly the opposite in previous days with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Were they right to do so, only time will tell?

This is the either worst financial situation since the 1930’s and is another Great Depression in the making or it’s a delevaraging that is long overdue. By which I mean that the financial sector is being downsized by market forces led by Wall Street and was perhaps long necessary. Put another way were there too many banks chasing too little business and therefore putting together untenable and insupportable deals.

In my view the main culprits are probably the central banks, which kept the interest rates too low for too long which resulted in too ample a money supply, and that made people reckless in their borrowing. This type of casino investing and banking has led to excessively liberal capitalism, which resulted in a bust like no other since the war. In other words there was not enough government intervention for a very long time and now there is going to be too much of the same thing.

Wholesale liquidation is what happened in the 1930’s and it was very painful and we are on the precipice again. For a market forces system to survive and prosper there must be trust in the system and therefore we all need, in fact demand an honest and transparent system from here on in.

In the UK exports are about 30% of output whereas in the States this figure is about 12% and as a consequence the UK, with sterling at a lower value will pull through quicker than most other countries.

It wasn’t long ago that I, amongst many others in this country felt that even if our pensions were becoming less and less valuable or workable, we did, at least, have financial security via our properties. Now that has been shot through by the sub prime market collapse, which is going to result in millions of properties going into negative equity.

The one thing we can all agree on is the urgent need for calm heads and steady hands at the tiller of our financial world. We could do a lot worse than look at history and realize that we simply cannot afford to make the same mistakes again.

Monday, September 15, 2008

MuckingAboutOnTheRiver

There are some times that stick in the memory. This weekend was one such time. I have to admit that I was never much of a boy scout, in fact I think I lasted just one or two weeks. I fancied myself in the uniform as a little boy but when I joined up I only lasted for two weeks as the trousers itched terribly around my delicate thighs. Of course I left the group immediately.

Decades later I was invited by my in-laws to help out on the weekend with a scout troop that they were taking on a boat down the river. It was a big narrow boat that looked pretty wide and was 65 feet long. We met on the River Stour near Harlow, a town near the border of two fairly local counties, Hertfordshire and Essex.

We were lucky as it was a day of mild temperature and no rain. We arrived at around 9 o’clock and mucked in as the scout leaders carefully prepared the boat. A short time later we were joined by 7 scouts on the capacious well fitted out boat originally put together by Red Watch fire crew.

I want to make a few points about our time on the rivers Stour and Lee. There are magical places in England that gently seduce you on this stretch of water, with images that Constable would have enjoyed to paint and which are engraved behind my eyes. It could not be more beautiful or succulent, this England of ours on days such as these.

I have never steered a boat like this before but was soon being instructed how to do so, although I admit to wanting someone with the requisite skills to be in charge when the boat traveled into locks with just inches to spare on either side.

It was great fun also learning to operate those locks and sling the ropes to the rest of the team to secure us as necessary. It was great watching the world passing us by in super slow motion, forcing us to relax and appreciate our surroundings.

It’s wonderful to greet your fellow travelers on the side of the river and to wave to the children walking along the towpath. The scout leaders were terrific with their young teenage charges, nurturing, leading but not bullying.

But above all, and most impressive were the seven young teenagers. They were polite, willing to learn, quick to listen to instruction, charming and intelligent. They disprove the generally held theory that our youngsters are a lost cause; they restored my faith in the future possibilities of our country.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

ToMyFriendDick

I have an American friend called Dick. I shan’t write his surname because it wouldn’t be wise as he has so many interesting stories in his life that can get him in trouble with bad people who might have long memories.

I was once commissioned to write a screenplay based on a series of incidents in Dick's life in which he was intimately involved with trying to halt a very questionable regime gaining access to nuclear weapons. When I was approached to do the job I told them I had to check out his story for myself prior to writing anything. I gained access to Special Forces and various intelligence agencies that gave me the confirmation I needed.

Dick and I became firm friends over a long period of time over which Dick’s history became known to me. He had given a great deal for his country, and now due to that service this is his medical condition. He is numb from the pulverizing! It would take something as large as the Dead Sea scrolls to write it all down, but here it is in brief.

Dick has no ankle joint to speak of left to him after surgery, there’s nothing really there; two bulged discs impinge on his main nerve running along his spine, which is fused at the bottom, so he finds turning an agony. That, when taken together with his diabetes, together make a lethal, miserable one two punch! By the end of the day he can’t see straight and is totally wrung out because the energy it takes for him to fight the pain is man killing!

So how do you suppose this man spends his time? Dick crawls out of his bed each day to look after his son who suffers from his own lifelong ailment.

That clearly was not enough so Dick also set up a new business to develop and market an amazing new technology to help his country and allies fight their enemies. This takes the form of a wrist worn computer and display that can receive and send real time information in a battle environment. It can do this under water, on the ground, in extreme heat and cold. It will save many allied lives currently lost in ambush and a range of other situations.

Dick has developed this amazing, world leading technology with a tiny team of people on a limited budget against huge odds. In direct competition in live test conditions his equipment has surpassed every last piece of competition and is now almost ready.

This article is my small testament to an exceptional man; whether or not he triumphs over all the odds I think Dick is a great advertisement for America and for the sheer gritty staying power of the human spirit.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Justice

Lately there have been some extraordinary decisions in the English justice system. Amongst the most absurd was the finding of the Maidstone Crown Court, which this week decided that some ecological activists had not broken the law when they had intentionally shut down the Kingsworth power station during their protest.

Apparently, so the argument went during the trial, if the supposed greater evil being stopped is bad enough, then it is within the law to break the law and stop the perfectly legal generation of power.

The “evil” of the power station is that places like it are supposedly going to destroy our planet, and therefore it is to the greater good to put a stop to it.

In other words, it doesn’t matter if you act illegally to stop something that the politically correct consider bad or evil, because even when you’re caught breaking the law you will be let off by the justice system. This can only lead down a very slippery slope in which there will be no law.

We cannot allow passing fads, fashionable thinking or transient convenience to overcome common sense or the law.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

IslamicVictims

In the last week the trial was concluded of a group of Islamic men, born in the UK, who were accused of plotting to blow up a large number of trans Atlantic jets. Three of the defendants were found guilty of lesser charges, and one man was acquitted. It is mooted that the Director of Public Prosecution will soon announce that the rest of the men charged are to be re-tried after the jury were unable to reach a decision about them.

This is despite the fact that these men had made individual suicide videos for release after their ultimately unsuccessful suicide attacks. The ingredients of the explosive devices were also found, as were details of the targeted aircraft. In addition to this these men had also been trained to carry out such missions in Pakistan. What did the jury want, an engraved invitation to mass murder?

Who can care whatever warped motivation such maniacs claim when their aim was to massacre thousands of men, women and children of every race, color and creed in an act designed to horrify on an even greater scale than the jets crashing into the Twin Towers.

I am not a lawyer, nor an expert on this case, but there is something very wrong when hugely well-prepared cases such as this one are not able to obtain the serious convictions the evidence appears to justify. We hope that someone very high in the English justice system is investigating how this jury deliberated, and what was its composition. There are grave misgivings being voiced by many people when such questionable decisions are reached without explanation. Is this another case of misguided political correctness gone mad, this time in the jury room?

At the same time, and unconnected in almost every way, across London, there are four of the most senior Islamic officers in the Metropolitan Police Force at various stages of claims against that organization for racial bias against them. All of these complaints single out for special condemnation the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, Sir Ian Blair. Normally I am at the forefront of those condemning this silly and super PC man, but surely not for his racism. He genuflects to the false gods of PC’ness and exposes his posterior whilst he grovels on the floor. How could anyone be less racist than this man? In fact, under his leadership it is much harder to get into the police force and gain promotion if you are white and English than if you are from a minority.

How wonderfully ironic that Ian Blair should be hoist on his own ample petard in this instance, and how stupid. The four officers concerned are professional chance takers, who it appears might well just be seeking to get rich quick by making silly and unsubstantiated claims for racial discrimination in order that they might gain financially.

To add to this ghastly parody of racial prejudice, it is now reported that the lawyer acting for these officers is himself a person with a more than questionable past. Are we all shocked, I don’t think any of us can be. We inhabit an Orwellian world in which everything is distorted and warped by falsehood and greedy inadequate people who care nothing about loyalty, integrity or society.

What makes it worse in both these stories is that most of the people concerned are Asians of the Muslim faith and were born or were raised in the UK. They have taken everything this country has had to offer and in return abuse us and seek to harm or gain from us. They are despicable human beings, not because they are Muslim, but because they are human garbage that deserves nothing but our contempt. In this society that has embraced a victim culture it has become hard for some to remember that the real victims are the people who actually suffer, and not the people who are able to complain the loudest.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

TheWorkaholic

My name is Tony and I am a workaholic. There you go, the first step is the big one, the admission that there is something wrong with me. Now I’ve gone that far I guess I should explain myself.

A couple of days back I made the declaration that I was not going to post a blog until the middle of the week and all would be explained at that time. This is now the time to take that next step.

I consider myself a person of moderation in most things, except for some strongly held opinions which you have had the misfortune or otherwise to share with me in this column. I noticed that not everyone works like me, and thought that entirely natural, after all each of is built differently. In fact I think I’m lazy, and never doing enough to justify any kind of hard working description.

My grandfather Gershon worked hard, “like a donkey” my father used to say of his father. Sometimes 18 to 20 hours a day, every day for years too numerous to bear, almost dancing up and down the hard floor of his little room as a tailor’s presser in Soho’s D’arblay Street he strived to look after his family for year after year of unrelenting effort. I remember watching him as a young boy as he worked himself into his early grave. Despite his almost superhuman East European strength eventually the never-ending work took its toll on this pocket dynamo.

That was hard work, but it was my late father, Michael, who really worked hard. I never saw anyone start earlier or work later than him, and although he worked with his brain and not his brawn it was no less hard. Of course they also had something else in common, these two wonderful men who were so different in many ways; they both died too early.

So when my wife, kids, friends and even strangers started to tell me I was working too hard I, being the son of my father, at first took no notice. To me writing a book or a blog or working on a film script is pleasure, not pain. It just doesn’t seem like work. A phone call about a deal is like a stroll in the park, and doing a bit of research on the net or handling my e-mails is mostly fun and a pleasure. I’m happy working on my laptop during the evening. I am keen to be in contact on my BlackBerry most of the time.

Then it dawned on my, I have become a workaholic, I never stop working, or thinking about work, or writing, or doing deals. This became obvious to me when I intentionally cut back on my workload and felt withdrawal symptoms that were almost physical.

As a result I decided to see if I could turn off all my machinery before and after office hours and to intentionally not post these columns for a couple of days.

The world didn’t come to an end, it still revolves, and apart from a few kind souls worrying if I was OK because they had come to anticipate my columns every day, everyone and everything survived.

This has taught me to attempt the previously impossible, to try and do a little less working and a little more living. I trust you will all agree that this is the right way for a now admitted workaholic to go.

I suspect that I am not alone as a workaholic; I think that there are people reading this column who could learn from some of my mistakes and who would benefit from a spot of rest and recreation. Spoil yourselves; you’re only on this planet a very brief time.

Monday, September 8, 2008

नोनेव्स्तोदय!

I have decided not to write any blogs until the middle of the week. All will be explained then and I apologize to any of you that look forward to my taking my head and using it as a battering ram.

See you soon!

Saturday, September 6, 2008

ThePalinReaction

The reaction to Sarah Palin’s speech when she accepted the Republican Party’s nomination for the role of Vice President was even bigger than that given to her Presidential running mate, John McCain, when he appeared in front of his convention and a TV audience of 39 million. This slightly exceeded the number of television viewers that Obama attracted and validates the view that this election is still too close to call.

Certainly my mailbag reflected a very lively debate taking place on this election across America and finding its way across the pond. The Presidential race has taken off after the electrifying introduction of Sarah Palin.

Many of my correspondents adopted the stance that, because I rated Palin’s speech so highly I obviously rate her as highly. Well, the truth is I don’t know any more about her than any of you and it’s way too early to make a proper judgment, either way. It wouldn’t be possible to say she’s the best thing since sliced bread, but equally the liberal media’s attempt to paint her as the devil incarnate is absurd.

Some of you agree that this media bias exists but what was clear is how polarized American opinion is over who the next President will be. It is more super charged and heated than political choice usually is from my liberal left leaning friends, and I wonder if that’s because they are beginning to realize that this election is not going to be the walkover they had been anticipating.

As a foreigner I should maintain the strict public neutrality that I suggest should be the role of the American media. To that end we shall revisit these themes as the election unfolds. It is sad that serious debate should be so obviously trivialized by both sides and their supporters but if you look back into history this has always been the case. It’s just more evident now.

What should happen now is that there should be public and open debate through which we should learn more about the candidates and their true personalities. I am concerned that the spin-doctors are so busy managing events that we might not get to do so. In the UK we recently had an election for the Mayor of London, won by a Conservative maverick, Boris Johnson. He could almost be the British political son of John McCain; his spin-doctors were able to get him elected whilst stage-managing his campaign to avoid his ever saying anything. I wonder if the British Conservatives and American Republicans are lending each other their political playbook?

If that is the case we can anticipate McCain and Obama will keep the campaigns general whilst the respective Vice-Presidential candidates slug it out on the detail. I think that would be a big mistake for Obama. He needs to let us know what he aims to do, and how he’s going to do it. It is becoming obvious that the American public already trusts the honor of McCain, even if they don’t necessarily agree with his politics, whereas the voters admire Obama, his oratory and his ability as a Professor and machine politician, but there is not a long history of great orators or Professors or machine politicians winning the Presidency.

Everything should be in favor of the Democratic Party after Iraq, George W Bush’s perceived failures and a faltering economy, which makes it even more surprising that McCain is simply not fading away.

Friday, September 5, 2008

SarahPalin

Sarah Palin made her speech accepting the Republican Party’s nomination for the role of Vice President. Not only was she able to deflect the mounting criticism of her being selected, she was triumphantly good. Watching this woman it is hard to believe that she had only served as Governor of Alaska for less than two years and prior to that for a few years as Mayor of a tiny town in that state.

With the media speculating that the McCain camp has made a dreadful mistake following several revelations regarding Governor Palin's past, some might have thought the 44-year-old, mother of five would adopt a low key, defensive tone, but this was not to be.

Governor Palin provided a suitably dramatic close to the third day of the Republican National Convention by coming out swinging at Barack Obama and the media whilst promoting her own small-town and gubernatorial government experience. She very effectively made the point that she and McCain have executive experience whereas Obama does not.

Sarah Palin was already known to be a tenacious fighter amongst the people of her Alaskan home state, and now the rest of the world has witnessed her feisty resolve live and in action. Her style was devastating, steely and barbed resolve delivered with a charming smile. Her intentions and style were clear, when, in a particularly pointed early barb, attacked Senator Obama's past as a community organizer in Chicago. She made him and this occupation sound silly and unnecessary.

"Before I became governor of the great state of Alaska, I was mayor of my hometown," she said. "And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities."

In a classic 'when life hands you lemons' routine, Governor Palin chose to address the media frenzy surrounding her family head on. With her own daughter's pregnancy underscoring the differences in policy preference. But the Palins have insisted that they are proud of Bristol's decision to go through with the pregnancy, rather than have an abortion, as Governor Palin is extremely pro-life. Her recently having a Down’s syndrome baby just a few months ago, which she proudly shared with the world rather than hiding further evidences this.

On the subject of the media coverage of Sarah Palin we should contrast their attempts to make her seem a far right wing, Christian lunatic getting way too close to the nuclear trigger to their cloying, sycophantic, syrupy coverage of Barack Obama. This is bias writ large and it has crossed the Atlantic and is evident in the BBC, who adores the man from Chicago and clearly despise the woman from Alaska.

In her speech, she also addressed several of her other supposed weak points, each time turning them all into positives.

Addressing the negative media hype she has generated, she said:

"I've learned quickly, these past few days, that if you're not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone. But here's a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I'm not going to Washington to seek their good opinion -- I'm going to Washington to serve the people of this country."

Although some have pointed to Palin’s Washington DC inexperience as a weakness, she cleverly framed it as a net positive, claiming a history as a reformer.

" I took on the old politics as usual in Juneau, when I stood up to the special interests, and the lobbyists, and the Big Oil companies, and the good-old boys."

But the man with a bull’s eye on his chest was Obama, for whom she reserved her strongest attacks. "It's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs, but not a single major law or reform, not even in the state Senate. This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting and never use the word 'victory' except when he's talking about his own campaign."

After pointing to Obama's soaring oratory and over dramatic setting at the Democratic National Convention, she asked, "What exactly is our opponent's plan? What does he actually seek to accomplish after he's done turning back the waters and healing the planet? The answer -- the answer is to make government bigger, and take more of your money, and give you more orders from Washington, and to reduce the strength of America in a dangerous world.

America needs more energy; our opponent is against producing it. Victory in Iraq is finally in sight, and he wants to forfeit it. Terrorist states are seeking nuclear weapons without delay; he wants to meet them without preconditions. Al Qaeda terrorists still plot to inflict catastrophic harm on America, and he's worried that someone won't read them their rights."

At the conclusion of her triumphant speech, Senator McCain joined her on stage and asked, "Don't you think we made the right choice for the next vice president of the United States?"

The crowd cheered in response, clearly energized by Palin's forceful tone and no-nonsense approach. On a night in which Republicans formally nominated Senator McCain, the party platform suddenly seems more coherent than it has in months.

Within moments of the evening's curtain drop, the Obama campaign issued their statement about Governor Palin's address:

"The speech that Governor Palin gave was well delivered, but it was written by George Bush's speechwriter and sounds exactly like the same divisive, partisan attacks we've heard from George Bush for the last eight years."

Here’s a newsflash for the Obama campaign staff, every one of us knows that all major political speeches in the USA are written by professional speechwriters. We are aware that this was also the case with the speech of Sarah Palin, but she captured our imagination and made the Republican spirit soar. She tailored the speech to fit both her mouth and soul, and that clearly found an echo with her party and possibly America.

It’s amazing to think that but for some twist of fate almost none of us would have ever heard of this woman. After this speech, which she seemed born to deliver, I think its fair to forecast that Sarah Palin might well be a national figure for the rest of her life.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

OptingInToOptingOut

In the UK there are over 7,000 people currently on the active waiting list for donor organ transplants, and that number grows about 8% each year.

It is proposed that, in future, instead of the current system whereby people must opt into donating their organs, they will have to opt out. In other words they will have to carry a card stating that they don’t want their organs donated when they die and not the other way around.

Every year almost 1,000 people die either while on the list, or having become so ill they are no longer able to withstand transplant surgery.

Nevertheless, some intensive care doctors state that they are deeply concerned about this radical change to the law on organ donation.

It was Prime Minister Gordon Brown who politically led this call to change to the opt out system called presumed consent. A UK-wide government taskforce is due to report in the next few months.

A BBC poll of adults across the UK showed support for this idea running at two thirds - but intensive care doctors are more divided.

The Intensive Care Society says it has research suggesting that many specialists are worried such a move might damage the trust between patients, their families and doctors.

Kevin Gunning, a consultant at Addenbrooke's hospital in Cambridge carried out a survey of specialists for the society. The 125 responses from doctors around the UK shows that their opinion is evenly divided.

Some of the doctors polled express the concern that presumed consent might instill doubts in patients and relatives about a potential conflict of interest. I believe this is a genuine concern that has not been thought through.

Mr. Gunning said: "In intensive care patients are often admitted suddenly and the families have to comes to terms very quickly with the fact that someone may not survive. It is very important in this situation that we have their trust, that we are doing is going to be in the best interests of that patient."

Whilst Gunning strongly supports the principle of organ donation, he believes the consideration of presumed consent is premature.

"The trouble is we live in a society where people are very much worried about the interference of the state. I think you would find that families would view this as taking the organs - and that would create a tension."

The statistics are that about one third of patients who enter intensive care don’t make it to the exit door, dying before they can leave. The generally accepted argument goes that their deaths have the potential to benefit patients on the transplant waiting list.

Personally, however hard I try to reconcile my instincts to do good with my reluctance to donate my organs I can’t get over my reticence. I shall be one of those people, if this new law is successfully launched, to carry a card saying leave my body alone.

My reasons are primal; I want to go out of the world just as I came into it, with nothing, not less than nothing. In light of this decision I have been trying my best to wear everything out in my body so no one would possibly want anything I’ve got and that way we’ll all be fine with my decision.

However, I’m already worried that one day, as I’m lying there dying, some medic will look at my anti donor card and, out of spite, because we don’t agree politically; will let me die. I do empathize with the well-intentioned motives behind this proposal but not the coercion implicit in the way our nanny state seeks to impose their moral perception on us all. No one voted to give them that right.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

BearskinHats

This week saw the launch of yet another attempt by the PC brigade to control the UK. They saw fit to demand that the bearskins worn on the heads of the Guards regiments when on formal duty in London should be replaced by fake fur alternatives.

It doesn’t matter to these do gooders that these bearskins come from bears that had died naturally or from road accidents, and is not risking the lives of a single bear. No, the army, who have used this bear fur for hundreds of years, should stop this tradition, why, because the PC Nazis have instructed them to do so. It proves you don’t need logic when you can shout very loudly and make a placard.

At stake is the traditional and iconic sight of changing the guard at Buckingham Palace with the lofty splendor of the glossy crest of black fur worn proudly by the Queen's soldiers.

The PC brigade want to replace the 200-year-old traditional bearskin helmets, worn by the guards on ceremonial duty at the royal residence in London, with a designer, humane alternative preferably made from synthetic materials.

Baroness Taylor, the minister for defense procurement, will meet some of the activists from the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (Peta) to discuss their proposal to phase out the 18-inch bearskin headgear. The bearskins have been a target of animal rights groups for many years, as a highly visible garment made from the fur of Canadian black bears.

Logic has no part in how such debates are conducted when you are politically correct. Ask yourself if these guardians of our morals and ethics were paragons of virtue, as they would have you believe. It is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility for some of the same people to smoke a joint or sniff some cocaine. Such folk always blithely claim that there’s no harm to anyone else by their smoking or sniffing without thinking for a second about the gangsters and terrorists who use the money they raise from such addictions to blight the lives of us all.

We live in a very strange society when drugs are acceptable but bearskin hats are not. It’s precisely the same bloated, lazy and crazy reverse logic that sees only wrong in using animals for testing medical advances whilst seeing nothing wrong in attacking the scientists and workers conducting these sometimes vital tests. By their type of thinking you can hurt people but not animals. In this instance even the fur from dead animals must not be used.

If we were seeking to ban anything it should be the buffoons of Peta and all their fellow travelers. The world would be a better place.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

RepublicanConventions

The Republican Convention was supposed to begin in St. Paul yesterday. In fact it did, but you might have missed it since John McCain had decided that there would be nothing political in the first day’s business. This is a pretty odd decision in light of the fact that it is a political convention, and what else, other than politics do you do at a convention?

On the plus side it was also decided that the President and Vice-President were not going to attend the convention. This probably helps the election chances of McCain who probably hopes that George W. Bush stays well away.

The reason for these decisions was the fact that there was a very big storm threatening New Orleans and discretion got the better part of valor on this occasion. It seems that this circumspect approach goes against all the natural instincts of McCain, but maybe John is not as gung ho as everyone has described. It might be, that unlike George W. Bush, he sometimes does engage his brain before acting.

It is also curious that McCain had known that Sarah Plain’s 17-year-old unmarried daughter was pregnant when he selected the Governor of Alaska as his running mate nevertheless. Again this, absolutely human and correct decision flies in the face of the common perception of the Republican Presidential nominee. It also means that his running mate is perhaps not the cardboard cut out Annie Oakley as has been characterized. We just don’t know enough about any of the candidate teams, with the exception of Joe Biden, who has said so much on so many issues he could take some bench time to let someone else talk.

Obama, despite his sweeping, stirring oratory is still something of an enigma to the world. Is he also more of a pragmatic, populist politician and less of a genuine conviction leader from the front?

The reason for the candidates’ true selves being obscured is that both sides have reduced the packaging of the Presidential candidates to new lows. Reality is hopelessly submerged in sound bites and cotton candy, and oh so white teeth in fixed smiles.

Guys we know you love your families, you had it tough and you really care, now show us, where’s the beef?

Now that the worst of the hurricane happily bypassed New Orleans with relatively little damage does this mean that the convention will be re-launched as a joyous coronation like the Democratic version last week?

In the rest of the world we are fascinated by these bizarre convention events, and although we can and do pick holes in these American set piece traditions we also envy and enjoy their verve, excitement and gaudy celebration of democracy.

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Obama felt able to debate McCain in the full view of the American public so that we could see who these people really are, what they truly believe and how they react on their feet to pressure?

The world deserves to know who these men really are and what they believe in. If we had some idea of these answers we might be able to figure out whom to support other than by tribal allegiance to a political party.

Monday, September 1, 2008

HealthPriorities

Some days a story surfaces that demands our immediate attention. The government of the United Kingdom is denying the right of cancer sufferers to receive National Health Service treatment if they are paying for their own private medication. The government’s argument is that if people can afford their own private purchase of pills they should be able to pay for their entire care privately.

There are several flaws in this argument. The first of these logical problems is both major and obvious; the government themselves should be providing the pills these people need; then the individuals concerned wouldn’t be forced to pay for their life saving, or life elongating or at least life enhancing medication themselves.

The government has stated that they see any breach of their format as the thin end of the wedge, which would spell the end of the NHS, as we know it. This is patent nonsense. The guiding principle when this wonderful service was first set up in an austere post World War 2 environment was that it was free for all at the point of care, on a need basis, and was not means tested.

However the reality is that this has changed over the years in many ways to reflect modern society and an ever-changing economy. I shall give examples in a moment but first let’s remember the National Health Service is not a sacred cow or a religion, it is simply an expedient, evolving device to look after the health of this nation. The government powers behind their draconian decision state that they are taking this stance because this is a point of principle. How well would their stance be maintained if it were their relative dying?

How is it OK for the same government to condone us paying for eye tests, dental care, prescriptions and many other services from the same National Health Service but its not OK for someone to buy their own medication to keep them alive whilst still being treated by the NHS?

Perhaps even more of a moral paradox is the fact that many people are able to obtain free NHS treatment for IVF, which costs a great deal of money. We all understand how desperate some childless couples are to conceive and it’s a wonderful miracle of modern science that they can be helped on some occasions. But ask yourself, is it all right for such treatments to be paid for by us all if there is a shortfall in funding?

More strange is the idea that it is not acceptable for someone to pay for his or her own medications, thus not taking that potential cost out of the pocket of us all?

Why should the short sighted, mean spirited dogmatic bureaucrats who run this formerly wonderful health service penalize such people? Shame on these pencil pushers for watching people die because the patients’ actions offend their political principles!

These unfortunate patients, who, let us remember are suffering from sometimes terminal cancer, should be thanked, helped and encouraged. They are sick or dying and they are doing what anyone should do, which is try to look after themselves and receive help where that is appropriate. What kind of sick society can this be turning into if there is even an argument about these basic rights?