IsraeliElections

There is about to be an election in Israel. Leading in the opinion polls is Benyamin Nehatanyahu, who heads up the right wing Likud party and who was Prime Minister a few years ago. He swears that if elected his party will not give one inch of Israel or the West Bank to the Palestinians and then dilutes this somewhat by stating that there could be pullbacks but only if there were a comprehensive peace settlement.

Trailing him is Kadima, the current government, who are being led in the campaign by Tzipi Livni, the present Foreign Minister. This is the party formed by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, prior to his stroke. If Kadima lose this election as it seems they will it is possible that the party might just implode. Their campaign has simply failed to ignite the people of Israel behind their pledge to continue negotiations for a comprehensive peace deal with the Palestine Authority led by its President, Mahmoud Abbas.

Not far behind Kadima in the polls is the Yisrael Beiteineu party led by Avigdor Lieberman. This party has a largely Russian born support base and boasts a platform in which all citizens of Israel, including the Palestinians will have to pledge allegiance to Israel as a Jewish state. The fact they are showing so well in the polls is a sure indication of the general shift to the right in the country’s politics.

Trailing in last of the big parties is Ehud Barak and the Labour Party. For many years after the independence of the country they were the natural government. Presently Barak is the Minister of Defense and is recognized as doing the job well following the perceived military success of the recent Gaza operations. His foreign affairs policy and that of Kadima are pretty much indistinguishable. But he is hampered by his previous experience as Prime Minister when he negotiated with Clinton and Arafat to give up approximately 97% of the West Bank to the Palestinians, which they famously declined.

The likely outcome is for Likud to win a fairly narrow victory which will need the support of other minority parties to form yet another shaky and fairly narrow coalition. The probable partners in this will be religious parties and potentially the even more right wing Yisrael Beiteneinu. This fills many observers with dread, as they perceive Netanyahu to be a right wing fanatical bogeyman. They hear his American accented English picked up during some of the years he spent growing up in the USA and they translate this into hearing him as if he were an American neo- conservative. It would be a mistake to do so. This man is steeped in Israeli history, myths and legends and this, for good or ill, informs his every thought and action.

It is entirely possible that a future Prime Minister Netanyahu could be the perfect person to make a lasting peace with Syria and the Palestinians. Historically it is strong men from the right who are more able to make peace deals with the Arabs, not the well-intentioned liberals from the left. This might be due to the psychology of both the Israelis and the Arabs who respect strength in their paternalistic leader figures. In both societies nurturing and conciliation are sometimes perceived as female traits, often confused with weakness.

Also necessary will be even handed support for any reasonable settlement by the USA that provides guaranteed security behind recognized borders. Within this mix there must be economic benefits for following the agreed path and the reverse for those that don’t. Hamas must not be allowed to sit at the table unless and until they recognize that the State of Israel is legitimate as a Jewish state. This includes a renouncing by them of all acts of violence and an acceptance and adherence to previously agreed treaties.

The irony is this; Hamas is stronger politically because it was badly defeated militarily. If there are moderate forces within the movement they must now show their heads above the parapets or whoever will soon lead Israel will simply have no one to speak with.