PeaceDeficit

A few years back I recall being taken around several vast, abandoned military bases in the USA that had been converted to civilian use. I remember thinking that was fine if the bogeymen had actually vanished for good as we had been told, but what if he still lurked in the dark corners of this all too small planet we share?

A few years back the governments of the UK and USA solemnly declared that we were going to reap major rewards from the “peace dividend”.

Their contention being that no realistic, symmetrical threat from the rest of the world existed after the collapse of the evil Soviet Empire. Therefore almost immediately we reduced our spending on big-ticket defense items. We cut back on all those things we had thought necessary for us to fight a big land war in Europe and another, lesser conflict elsewhere simultaneously.

Yes, the government leaders stated, we would have to deal with the Islamic fundamentalists and similar types of threat, and yes, there were some little countries with whom our forces might have to contend. But for these asymmetric threats, there was not going to be a need for new building programs for capital ships, main battle tanks and big armies.

Instead we would need lighter, quicker forces we could deploy with extreme speed anywhere in the world. The days when we had to plan for pitched battles on the plains of Europe, or elsewhere, were over for good.

We could, so the argument went, therefore save money on unnecessary and wasteful defense expenditure. But my argument is that we were premature in these and similar reductions in our military spending and preparedness.

Tell these myths to the people of Georgia today. Now their country faces the threat of total occupation and only continues to exist as democratic and free entity while Russia decided its next move and tests the water of world opinion. The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been pleading for a ceasefire for the last two days but the Russians are stating that their first priority is the safety of Russian citizens who they are pledged to protect. First amongst these, we can suppose, are the Russian soldiers now advancing on all fronts in Georgia!

Both sides in this rapidly worsening conflict should remember that there never is a good war or a bad peace.

Now, when we in the Western democracies might well need those ships, planes and men we don’t have them readily available. No one pretends that Russia is the same kind of threat as the Soviet Union; but it might turn out to be worse.

It was far easier to identify the evil inherent in the brutal suppression of freedom and dissent within the Soviet Union and it was also less difficult to predict the actions of such a centrally administered bureaucracy. In other words we could pretty much work out what that ruling gerontocracy was going to do, and how we should react. They were unsmiling, clearly our sworn enemies and wore bad suits and looked the part of Bond villains.

China under the despotic leadership of Mao Tse-Tung was also much easier to comprehend in geo- political terms than the political doughnut it has since become. The Chinese People's Republic is a curious mixture of a capitalist covering of sweet enrichment over a hard core Communist center. No one can know for sure how that will work out in practice; the world has never experienced anything like it.

Look at the polished and media savvy leaders of China and Russia as they smile broadly for the cameras, and understand that the level of threat to freedom has probably increased in direct proportion to their level of sophistication, whilst at the same moment our economies hit free fall. At precisely the moment we need to be strong so we don’t have to act tough, we’re visibly too weak. Don’t, for a second, think the Russians and Chinese are not calculating this into their strategy.

You watch the brutal oppression of dissidents in Tibet and elsewhere under Chinese hegemony and you realize that should the Chinese government turn its mind, energy and resources to increasing its pressure on its Asian neighbors we have to be ready to assist in resistance. The situation in Taipei (Taiwain) is calm now, but can we safely assume this will continue if China is angered or becomes impatient?

Russia is also beginning to flex its dormant imperial muscle and it makes an unappealing and scary picture. We’ve got to realize where this can lead. If Russia finds it is possible to force the issue as desired in Georgia there will be little or nothing we can do to stop it taking similar actions in the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Therefore it is imperative that Nato, led by Britain and the United States does more than make polite noises of protest against Russia’s disguised takeover in Georgia.

This is where it becomes extremely difficult for Europe to act in a concerted manner against Russia. We have become very reliant on the supply of Russian energy to our collective power grids. If we push them about Georgia be ready for them to push back.

That leaves America alone to do more than make noises of protest. No one seriously expects that George Bush will get out the well-battered American big stick with which to combat Russia on the ground. This leaves the US with the discredited economic sanction weapon, which might end up hurting it more than it damages a now, much strengthened Russia.

The only military option the US would have is the use of its ships and planes to harass and bomb Russian military targets and they are simply not going to be that dangerously adventurous. This all leaves Russia with a free pass to do what it wants in the Caucasus region, and that might, very worryingly, awaken another dream for the Russian hawks. If they can get away with this in Georgia how about the Ukraine, and if that’s possible, wouldn’t it be great to get back at the Baltic States?

The UK and the USA and Nato must rethink priorities fast and re-evaluate medium to long-term military spending plans.

Otherwise as China holds onto Tibet and Russia toys with Georgia we have learned nothing. These two events roll out in different parts of the world, and seemingly don’t connect to the peace dividend until you realize that they form part of what is actually a peace deficit. As the Roman writer Vegetius stated, “Let him who desires peace prepare for war.”

You don’t walk down a dangerous, dark alley at night and declare to anyone who might listen, “come and get me, I’m not armed and can’t defend myself,” unless you’re crazy.

The big bad bogeyman never went away, he was just hiding in the dark whilst we went to sleep. It’s time to WAKE UP!