Waiting

Are you waiting for the other foot to drop? I am, I find myself fearing the future after always looking forward to it. We all know, and if you don’t why haven’t you been reading my blogs, that the old order is changing in the world. Suddenly the old certainties are no longer so certain. It used to be that there was an order to things, that America was top dog, and we were top of the middle sized countries, which made us comfortably in the top six or seven of all the countries, whatever their size, in whatever way you measure these things.

Now there are seismic shifts which are not in our control and which promise to be unpleasant. The Americans will have to adjust to not being the lone superpower, and possibly, one day in the not too distant future, to not being a superpower at all. My definition of that word, superpower, meaning that you can impose your will on other countries, wherever they are and for whatever reason you pick, in whichever manner you select, be it military, diplomatic or economic.

The threat to the established order comes from the BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, and we mustn’t forget the others yapping at the fringes like Canada who have smaller populations but vast natural resources that will become increasingly vital. It does not come in equal measure from the supposedly asymmetric conflicts with various Islamic groups or countries as these are threats that can be dealt with.

I don’t claim that the Anglo Saxon countries have a divine right to rule or dominate other countries, but I do make a case for our having been of benefit to the rest of the world, a benign influence. Let’s not forget if it were not for British obduracy and undeniable courage plus American capacity and bravery, albeit a bit late, Nazism would today dominate the entire world. No other countries demonstrated that capacity or willingness to fight the evil tyranny until it was too late.

Like every other country ours have taken many, if not most of their decisions for purely pragmatic and selfish reasons, but sometimes, like in World War Two we did what we thought to be right because it was the moral thing to do.

It is a common belief that China follows a course of action for reasons of pure expedience? Witness how the Chinese government cynically manipulates the publicity surrounding the Beijing Olympics during the torch runs around the globe. Everyone else in the world acknowledges the systematic rape of Tibet but is powerless to act. Once the Games are over what will remain to coerce the Chinese government to show any modicum of restraint or reasonable behavior. We shouldn’t assume that the Chinese people agree with my Western view of their rationale. I think a great many Chinese nationals are very proud of their country’s economic and cultural leap forward. They like a system that works for their pockets and stomachs and gives them back their pride.

Likewise Russia, now led by its latest Czar, Vladimir Putin. We already see all the signs of a returned dictatorship, with almost all the recent flowering signs of a thriving democracy being carefully controlled or eliminated. Perversely the Russian people en masse seem to love the man. He has won several elections with increasingly large majorities. Perhaps its true that the Russian historical liking for a strong man at the centre of power remains their nation’s driving wish. Why should we assume that everyone does, or should aspire to our form of democratic governance?

Russia has restored its morale and increasing power via its regaining control of its vast natural resources. As Russia re-asserts itself among the top table of countries it will increasingly drain the Anglo American focus. This is inevitably going to prove to be a problem.

The other great player in the world which no one pays much attention to is the quiet behemoth, the European Union. This now comprises 27 countries and, of course, lest we forget, includes the UK. If you consider it as an economic and political block it is the biggest and strongest in the world. However no one has seriously suggested that it sees itself in this way. At the moment it is either Hydra, the mythical beast with many heads and one writhing body or Sisyphus, one of the Titans condemned to push a stone up a hill that everlastingly rolled back down again in unceasing but fruitless labor.

Presently the European Union’s biggest problem is its genuine lack of transparency and democratic answerability. The EU hierarchy’s lack of responsiveness to the no votes against the proposed Lisbon Treaty demonstrates their inability to understand or empathize with the European people.

But all it will take is one charismatic leader who can combine the people’s common dreams and aspirations. Hopefully this will be a democratic and not follow the previous proponents of such a combination of European power, which included Hitler and Napoleon and many Emperors of Rome. In the end all had the same flaw that it is very hard, if not impossible to create a power bloc of component parts without central authority being exerted by a very small controlling force.

We need to re-think how we work with the Russians and our fellow Europeans rather than ignore these new realities and America in particular has to figure out to react before they are forced to reconsider their strategies. America was at its most powerful after the Second World War all the way through to the trauma of 9/11. America was also at its most magnanimous during that period and now it must return to a policy of listening as well as talking.

The UK should return to its post war role of being the political, cultural and sometimes economic bridge between Europe and America, understanding both places better than either understands the other.