I seem to be hitting a nerve with my American friends regarding the upcoming Presidential election. It’s not like we share some special knowledge, but perhaps simply because we are looking at these issues from a slightly different, British angle.
In Britain we remember when Margaret Thatcher was first standing as the leader of the Conservative Party. They were fast approaching their first opportunity in government for quite some time. All the polls indicated that Maggie was going to win but as the date for the election approached her supporters were becoming extremely nervous. Remember that the economic situation in the UK at the time was so hopeless that the country was thought to be ungovernable. Many were emigrating, and my family and I had moved to the States to avoid the 3 days work week, punitive taxation and power black outs.
Would the people who said they were going to vote for a woman actually going to do so in the privacy of the voting booth? Would it have meant that the country was misogynistic if it did not?
Luckily for Mrs. Thatcher, and many say for the UK, they overwhelmingly did so, with the result that the UK had its iron lady as its Prime Minister. The secondary result was the renaissance of the British economy that, from that time only knew growth and prosperity over 44 successive quarters, until now!
The same type of hypothesis applies to Barack Obama. Will the American people really vote for a black man just like they say they will do? Is the country racist if it does not?
The truth is that the world really would prefer America to choose Obama, not because they especially love him, but due to the fact that they believe he represents a new beginning, a hope that there might be a step change in the way America behaves abroad as the remaining superpower.
Personally I don’t share the common perception that McCain is such a bad choice, or that Obama will be such a great one. I am highly nervous about both their choices for running mate. Joe Biden is simply a windbag, probably just about suited for the non-job of being number 2 to Obama. But it is much more likely that whoever is the back up to McCain has a better than even choice of being promoted to President. Palin in that role is more than scary.
Whoever wins will have to sort out some livable arrangements for an acceptable pull out from Iraq in the kind of time frame the Iraqi political leaders are talking about, over the next 18 to 36 months. Most of the slack will unfortunately be taken up by some kind of troop surge against the Taliban in Afghanistan to achieve the same type of result. Whatever our liberal hearts might wish for, there is no way to avoid the confrontation with the exporters of terrorism. Remember they were bombing you long before you thought of defending your country.
The real big elephant in the room for whoever leads America is how good are they going to be when dealing with the economy. That needs an alchemist who has a great deal of luck, because the job might be more about timing and long term planning in a global context than it is simply turning the US economic taps on and off. So far neither Obama nor McCain has offered any meaningful answers for these problems, and it could be that so far, there are no answers available for anyone to give.
Friday, October 31, 2008
ObamaQuestions
I seem to be hitting a nerve with my American friends regarding the upcoming Presidential election. It’s not like we share some special knowledge, but perhaps simply because we are looking at these issues from a slightly different, British angle.
In Britain we remember when Margaret Thatcher was first standing as the leader of the Conservative Party. They were fast approaching their first opportunity in government for quite some time. All the polls indicated that Maggie was going to win but as the date for the election approached her supporters were becoming extremely nervous. Remember that the economic situation in the UK at the time was so hopeless that the country was thought to be ungovernable. Many were emigrating, and my family and I had moved to the States to avoid the 3 days work week, punitive taxation and power black outs.
Would the people who said they were going to vote for a woman actually going to do so in the privacy of the voting booth? Would it have meant that the country was misogynistic if it did not?
Luckily for Mrs. Thatcher, and many say for the UK, they overwhelmingly did so, with the result that the UK had its iron lady as its Prime Minister. The secondary result was the renaissance of the British economy that, from that time only knew growth and prosperity over 44 successive quarters, until now!
The same type of hypothesis applies to Barack Obama. Will the American people really vote for a black man just like they say they will do? Is the country racist if it does not?
The truth is that the world really would prefer America to choose Obama, not because they especially love him, but due to the fact that they believe he represents a new beginning, a hope that there might be a step change in the way America behaves abroad as the remaining superpower.
Personally I don’t share the common perception that McCain is such a bad choice, or that Obama will be such a great one. I am highly nervous about both their choices for running mate. Joe Biden is simply a windbag, probably just about suited for the non-job of being number 2 to Obama. But it is much more likely that whoever is the back up to McCain has a better than even choice of being promoted to President. Palin in that role is more than scary.
Whoever wins will have to sort out some livable arrangements for an acceptable pull out from Iraq in the kind of time frame the Iraqi political leaders are talking about, over the next 18 to 36 months. Most of the slack will unfortunately be taken up by some kind of troop surge against the Taliban in Afghanistan to achieve the same type of result. Whatever our liberal hearts might wish for, there is no way to avoid the confrontation with the exporters of terrorism. Remember they were bombing you long before you thought of defending your country.
The real big elephant in the room for whoever leads America is how good are they going to be when dealing with the economy. That needs an alchemist who has a great deal of luck, because the job might be more about timing and long term planning in a global context than it is simply turning the US economic taps on and off. So far neither Obama nor McCain has offered any meaningful answers for these problems, and it could be that so far, there are no answers available for anyone to give.
In Britain we remember when Margaret Thatcher was first standing as the leader of the Conservative Party. They were fast approaching their first opportunity in government for quite some time. All the polls indicated that Maggie was going to win but as the date for the election approached her supporters were becoming extremely nervous. Remember that the economic situation in the UK at the time was so hopeless that the country was thought to be ungovernable. Many were emigrating, and my family and I had moved to the States to avoid the 3 days work week, punitive taxation and power black outs.
Would the people who said they were going to vote for a woman actually going to do so in the privacy of the voting booth? Would it have meant that the country was misogynistic if it did not?
Luckily for Mrs. Thatcher, and many say for the UK, they overwhelmingly did so, with the result that the UK had its iron lady as its Prime Minister. The secondary result was the renaissance of the British economy that, from that time only knew growth and prosperity over 44 successive quarters, until now!
The same type of hypothesis applies to Barack Obama. Will the American people really vote for a black man just like they say they will do? Is the country racist if it does not?
The truth is that the world really would prefer America to choose Obama, not because they especially love him, but due to the fact that they believe he represents a new beginning, a hope that there might be a step change in the way America behaves abroad as the remaining superpower.
Personally I don’t share the common perception that McCain is such a bad choice, or that Obama will be such a great one. I am highly nervous about both their choices for running mate. Joe Biden is simply a windbag, probably just about suited for the non-job of being number 2 to Obama. But it is much more likely that whoever is the back up to McCain has a better than even choice of being promoted to President. Palin in that role is more than scary.
Whoever wins will have to sort out some livable arrangements for an acceptable pull out from Iraq in the kind of time frame the Iraqi political leaders are talking about, over the next 18 to 36 months. Most of the slack will unfortunately be taken up by some kind of troop surge against the Taliban in Afghanistan to achieve the same type of result. Whatever our liberal hearts might wish for, there is no way to avoid the confrontation with the exporters of terrorism. Remember they were bombing you long before you thought of defending your country.
The real big elephant in the room for whoever leads America is how good are they going to be when dealing with the economy. That needs an alchemist who has a great deal of luck, because the job might be more about timing and long term planning in a global context than it is simply turning the US economic taps on and off. So far neither Obama nor McCain has offered any meaningful answers for these problems, and it could be that so far, there are no answers available for anyone to give.
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