Monday, December 29, 2008

HopesForTheFuture

Following on from my recent article I have enjoyed further meetings with American friends over the last two days that reinforce my views about what’s happening in this amazing country, and around the world, and what’s likely to happen next.

It strikes most people that it is grossly unfair that banking and finance arrangements freely entered into in good times, have been unilaterally changed by the lenders to the detriment of the borrowers during the current bad financial times.

Yes, there is probably the legal right for the lenders to make these changes; but just because you can do this doesn’t mean you should.

These alterations in terms are without exception, to the benefit of the lender, and damage the borrower. The implicit danger to the lenders is that they will, in the longer term, kill the goose that has laid their many golden eggs.

The result of these short sighted, unfair changes in financial terms by the financial institutions has been the collapse of many small to medium size businesses and an explosion of personal bankruptcies and property repossessions. It is logical to anticipate that this situation will become far worse if allowed to continue on the same trajectory.

Business debt collection agencies are already finding it next to impossible to obtain very large percentages of the money due to the lenders.

Another outcome of the present financial crisis has been the explosive growth in the supply of bail out money to the banks and now other industries from our governments. Such printing of money on a massive but quiet scale is fueling the future fall in value of that money. This will lead to a money bubble to follow the property and financial and stock market bubbles, and this could well lead to another major crash in the value of money itself. There is nothing more damaging to a country during peacetime than this outcome, witness the Great Depression, the Weimar Republic or the current crisis in the wrecked country, Zimbabwe.

Are our leaders able, with the inspiration of President Elect Obama, to do anything whatsoever to keep us safe when we have arrived at this precipice?

With all my heart I want to believe that they can save some prosperity for us, but my head says otherwise. Reality dictates that we might not enjoy the prosperity of the past decades again, and certainly should not plan for such an outcome for the foreseeable future.

Such financial instability will lead to problems in supply and demand for raw materials, and possible battles for that supply at prices our countries can afford to pay. Will we, in such circumstances, be willing to forego our individual transportation on demand, or heating or refrigeration when necessary?

These are fundamental issues we are going to have to wrestle with at the same time as our capacity to fight such battles economically, politically and militarily become progressively more seriously impaired. Do we wait until we are even more seriously weakened or pick our fights cynically at a time and place that suits us?

Even more fundamental, if such a thing is possible, will be the control of food and water production and its distribution around the world. Do we behave in a fair and equitable manner or simply pursue a behavior model to suit our more narrow national interests?

My hope is that we see further than the end of our own nose. Our vital need is to work together for eventual global salvation or fail singly. There are no victories to be gained by individuals or even countries acting alone, now, more than ever, we must find new ways to work together.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

WaitingforObama

As the festive season rolls on in America there is a sense of waiting, and dare I say, hoping. The country, if not the entire world, is waiting impatiently for the inauguration of Barack Obama as President. Some here seem convinced he is the Messiah, and those of us of a more cynical bent are still hopeful that he might be more John F. Kennedy than Jimmy Carter with speech making abilities.

Whichever he is the world desperately needs hope and leadership as it is awash with problems. The perspective in the States is slightly different than it is in Europe but the underlying themes are identical. The economy stands out as the principal issue and last night I was dining out with a bunch of politically active Southern Californians in the city of Glendale. The consensus amongst all of them, Republicans, Democrats and the non-aligned was the same. The country has to get back in the business of making things that people want and need to buy. Two examples given were low emission and high mileage little cars and fuel-efficient power generation.

On the ground level there was clear evidence that local businesses are in deep trouble just as they are at home. It was agreed that the principal culprits are the banks that are still misusing funds, now provided by us all, and are not recycling that money back into the system. The results of this short termism are rapidly becoming catastrophic as businesses simply cannot arrange credit and are incapable of continuing with finance.

In property I encountered a lady who manages many “for rent” apartments and houses. As people have already invested their funds to purchase the properties she manages she is unable to vary the terms of those properties except for the virtually cosmetic provision of initial inducements. As people simply cannot qualify for regular mortgages to purchase homes here you could assume that they will be rushing to rent. But this is not the case, the business is virtually not moving as the unfortunate folk who can’t afford to stay in their homes as purchasers are moving back in with their families. This is a recession like no other in living memory.

You get some additional signs of this when you look around you on the streets of Los Angeles and Las Vegas and notice the hugely increasing numbers of people begging on the streets in near freezing temperatures. This dramatic increase in numbers is a new phenomenon; these people are dressed more like middle class professionals than they are tramps. They could be you and me.

I spoke with a retailer who has dropped his prices on clothing by 50% for this usually busy period for his store, and he had 3 customers in an entire day. He doesn’t know how long he can continue to stay in business if it continues like this.

The happiest person at the party was the lady who recently retired with a teacher’s pension. Many others were congratulating her for her remarkable good fortune and hoping that they can reach the same stage without further problems.

I have never met a group of Americans who are so pessimistic, and it is really quite worrying and depressing to do so, and this was without anyone raising little matters like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the continuing problems in the Middle East and the unresolved War on Terror. Let us all hope that next month, when Obama takes his Presidential oath in Washington that it is the first step in his starting to lead this country and the world to a better future, we certainly need it.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Spooky

This morning I woke up early and decided to use the time productively. With the wonders of modern science you can check out the whereabouts and well being of friends, old and new, on the Internet with the greatest of ease.

I eased my shiny and lovely MacBook Air onto my lap and hit the Google button. Next I entered the name of a friend I hadn’t seen in many years, a man who once served with me on the Board of Directors of our company in America, and when I was starting out in the film business and he was the big boss of Cinerama Distribution gave my first little movie, The Festival Game, its release. His name is Joe Sugar and I thought I could ring him once I found out where he was to say hi, wish him well for the festive season but sadly I was too late, he had died in the last weeks.

I was saddened and disconcerted, I wish I had spoken with my old friend and we'd shared some chuckles about the wonderful Friars Club lunches we had enjoyed together in Beverly Hills; swapping jokes and anecdotes, but it was not to be.

Now I was even more motivated to look up another old friend who I had heard was sick with that cruel illness, Alzheimer’s, his name is Sandy Howard. This guy was one of the funniest and most charming of men, handsome and talented, a born raconteur and a producer of sometimes-manic energy if sometimes less wisdom. He made films, good and not so great, but always with a smile and a smashing story. I once met him with another friend at a local Chinese restaurant, and they were relieved to see my father and I arrive as they clearly couldn’t afford the meal they’d eaten, they agreed that they “had momentum, but unfortunately it was downward momentum!” Sadly the downward momentum has continued because Sandy had also just died.

Life is the poorer for the passing of such men, hugely entertaining and knowledgeable, old school entertainment people that define the word, Hollywood, for the rest of the world.

Now I was getting very worried because I had checked out two friends and they had both gone to meet their maker, so I thought I would check out someone I didn’t like so much. I clicked on the name of John Daly, someone who I had good reason to dislike after once being friends and having done deals together. Up came his name, guess what, he had also recently died. However much I didn’t care for John I don’t wish anyone dead, but now I felt like I’d killed him.

I was beginning to think that I had better put the computer away for the day and not open it again. But time passes and logic took hold hence I’m writing this blog, but don’t worry, I won’t be checking any friends out on Google for a while.

Friday, December 19, 2008

TheAmericanMedicalSystem

I promised to write about all elements I found here during my stay, including the less positive aspects of America during my trip, so here goes. The U.S. medical system is expensive, but very effective, but only if you can afford it.

This morning we were, as a family, all sick with lingering various coughs and sneezes type symptoms. We needed medical attention to sort it out. More a precautionary measure than an emergency, but if 4 out of 5 of you are laid low you want to know recovery is certain and not too far off.

If you have money and / or insurance this is not a problem. Fortunately I am an assiduous gatherer of travel protection so our journey to recovery was to prove more interesting than painful.

In fact there was very little pain involved at all. I had carefully filed my travel insurance ready for this trip but had forgotten to pack the policy document. My lame excuse is that this oversight was due to my already having flu and a temperature. Despite the lack of my policy document I did have my policy number and more than my share of Klinger chutzpah.

Sarah, my daughter, seeing our ailments and fed up with being an unpaid nurse, took decisive action and called her own medical practitioners for an emergency appointment first thing this morning, which she obtained within 15 minutes.

Getting to the shiny, clean and well-appointed medical building within the allotted time was no problem. Seeing the medical assistant and the doctor was almost immediate and without any fuss.

There was the anticipated problem with the insurance numbers from the UK not being recognizable for an American medical practice but remarkably we were being checked over, comprehensively, politely and with no fuss exactly how you would wish. The doctor, the medical assistant and the receptionist were charming, helpful and terrific at their jobs.

I was reeling from the shock, it isn’t exactly like this in England, where going to the doctor is something like meeting Osama Bin Laden and his cronies on a day they’re feeling nasty.

The only down side here, on which we in the UK have the definite advantage, is that our General Medical Practices are totally free of charge, and accessible to all, whereas here in the States you need the cash or the insurance or these medical pleasures are unavailable.

It was at the point of payment that the system did unravel somewhat. The receptionist almost blew a gasket trying to work with the insurers, and it proved to be simply impossible, so I paid for the service and we went to the pharmacy to fill the prescriptions. Again this was probably worse in the States as a service than in the UK and undoubtedly far more expensive. Instead of just a few pounds the prescriptions cost over $120.

I was reminded of a trip we once took to Vancouver in Canada, when my son Dan was sick. We found that Canada had all the medical efficiency of America at its finest, combined with the caring for all mentality of Britain’s National Health Service at its best. Surely both are possible and desirable and are a measure of a country’s civilization. In this respect Canada is the model we should all aspire to.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

StillHopeForAmerica

There are certain aspects of life in the USA that are particularly good, and others that are the opposite. During this trip I shall touch on both, but my overwhelming reaction on this trip is one of hope. America isn’t done yet, and that’s very important to all of us. We need a strong, resilient America, and this country might be bloodied but it remains unbowed.

Perhaps the reason that there’s still hope is enshrined in the slender shape of President Elect Obama. The people here, by and large, are convinced that they have amongst them a man who can and will lead this country back to the summit of world affairs whilst regaining the traction to rediscover and invigorate its moral leadership of the free world.

It remains to be seen whether or not this optimism is well founded although all right thinking people must hope so. There are deep shadows that threaten the horizon and they come in the form of the scandal-plagued Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich who was arrested last week on charges of conspiracy to swap political favors for cash, including an attempt to sell the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama following his presidential election victory.

No one is suggesting that the President Elect has any connection to the Governor’s alleged misbehavior, other than that of geographical proximity. However there is the underlying linkage of the Chicago political machine of the current Mayor Daly that underpins all Democratic shenanigans in the windy city. Barack Obama cut his political teeth against this background, which means his saintly aura might be more than a little tarnished. Personally a little humanity makes the new president much more convincing for me.

Now that interest rates are approaching zero per cent and the great governments of the old industrial powerhouses are totally committed to the financial and industrial salvage operation we have few weapons left to deploy except common sense and our will to win. It has seen us through even bigger crisis than this huge economic downturn, and it will do so again.

Monday, December 15, 2008

TheProposition8Disaster

Many of you won’t know what a Proposition in California means. It usually equates to the ultimate in American statewide democracy. If enough of the electorate agrees on a political proposal it can be forced on the ballot and then be voted on by everyone.

Usually this means that some grass roots, populist ideas can be enacted and generally has been a force for political freedom in the best traditions of the country. But, at the same time Barack Obama was being elected President there was a new Proposition 8 being voted upon which changed the state Constitution to restrict the definition of marriage to a union between a man and a woman and eliminated the right of same-sex couples to marry. The proposition does not affect domestic partnerships in California.

The opposing campaigns raised $35.8 million and $37.6 million, respectively, becoming the highest-funded campaign on any state ballot that day and outspending every other campaign in the country in except for the presidential contest. The proponents insist the law should recognize exclusively heterosexual marriage and claimed that failure to reverse the May 2008 Supreme Court ruling that recognized the right of same-sex couples to marry would damage society, require changes to a school curriculum to discuss same-sex marriage, and threaten the free exercise of religion. The opponents argued that eliminating the rights of any Californian and mandating that one group of people be treated differently from everyone else was unfair and wrong.

As far as this writer can ascertain there was no such school curriculum to change as marriage, of any kind, was not and is not taught in California’s schools.

Just as the electorate of the American West were congratulating themselves on the success of their liberal tendency for electing President Obama the State of California was simultaneously taking an amazingly retrograde step. It is a great shame on the backers of Proposition 8 that they consider only heterosexual partnerships should have legitimacy and on any logical basis this argument has no merit. The sexual gender of your bed partner has no bearing on how you run your public life.

I am not gay, and have never been a public campaigner on this or related issues. But it must be obvious to everyone that every adult should have the right to choose his or her partner, and for that partnership to be recognized in law. How you can argue against this is a question that boggles my mind, but let’s voice what this is really about. People who consider themselves devout followers of various religions have interpreted their scriptures to mean that the Lord above does not permit such partnerships, but as they can’t enforce this, they’ll make do by stopping such partnerships being legal.

This is made worse because there are many people in California who waited many years to be able to enter into legal partnerships in their home state, and then did so, only to now find that these partnerships have been unraveled.

Surely we have reached a stage in our civilization where we understand that it cannot be considered a sin for two adults to fall in love with people of the same sex and then commit to a legally binding partnership between them. Such retrograde laws as Proposition 8 will inevitably be overturned but a great many people will suffer more and for no good reason.

Friday, December 12, 2008

GreetingsFromAmerica

Greetings from America and forgive me if the jet lag hampers my fluency and my ability to edit myself. It is warmer and sunnier than back home in freezing England. Leaving home it was cold, dark and icy, arriving here I was greeted by a smiling uniformed man who greeted me with the words, “Welcome to Los Angeles, we hope you enjoy your stay!”

I know its corny, or as we now say in England, cheesy, but it is much more pleasant than the people at terminal 3 of Heathrow who informed me that I was at the wrong terminal as if I should know this by telepathy. Apparently I am not alone in my ignorance, as according to the United Airline ground staff, this error is being repeated all the time. But no one cares, in fact it seems as if the mistake amuses him or her.

The whole trip is made even more pleasant by the fact that I have finally been able to accumulate enough miles to obtain free tickets to America and been able to do so before the benefits expired!

Arriving early the flight was informed that we would be bussed to another building because “Immigration” was not able to deal with us. It was as if our planeload of passengers were a total surprise to “immigration”, which does seem strange as the flight in question are daily and have been running for many years. But you know what jokers these airline people are. The huge line facing the passengers trying to get through the customs hall proved this. It was as if we were in a huge Disney line with the only difference being that there was not going to be any great rides a the end of the line.

Better organized this ordeal could have been half as long and much more efficient. Official America lets itself down by the way it treats its visitors with such disdain, but it’s still a great place.

Everything was made wonderful when our daughter, Sarah, along with her children picked us up without attracting a parking ticket from the traffic cop hovering over anyone daring to pause curbside for more than a second or two. Now I’m sitting in her living room, trying to adjust to the time difference without passing out but fully aware that I will be awake about 3 in the morning, so it would be good if it could be fun.

Perhaps I should indulge in the Night Cold remedy, which could fix my cough and cold and allow me the chance to simply fall asleep. Forgive me if I sound sleepy, normal service will shortly

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

ObamaWhatWorriesMeNow

Yesterday amongst the subjects I covered was my concern that President Elect Obama is acting as if he is already the President. One of my readers wrote me this;

“ I don’t think you can blame the lack of activity and leadership on the one who takes it because he had to pull the baby out of the bathwater.

These months are precious to restore confidence and avoid sliding into a depression- and it may already be too late – so not to try at this stage, knowing he has to deal with it formally, as of January, would be stupid and reckless.”

My response is that it's Obama's hypocrisy and flagrant disregard for the law and constitution I dislike.

Obama does really not convince me but we all really need to hope.

It's not a good start for him to say one thing and do the other. If he said I really need to bend the rules because we have a huge problem and did exactly what he's doing I'd be fine with it.

It's a blatant disregard for the truth or for our ability to spot the lie that's of great concern. It's also really dangerous for us all if we allow breaches of the constitution when it suits us because we won't be able to do anything about future breaches when it doesn't.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

WorryingTimes

Two seemingly disassociated events taking place this week in the US and UK might be inextricably linked. In fact they are potentially of immense political significance.

In the USA President Elect Barack Obama is acting, in all but name, as if he were already the President, whereas, in fact, as he has previously correctly stated, there is only one President at a time, and still, at this time, his name is President George W Bush. We have never had such a lame duck last months of a Presidency as we are currently suffering from, and this is caused by two factors. One, we all have to admit, is that George W Bush has not continued to assert himself prior to his leaving and as a consequence there is a leadership deficit. The other unavoidable conclusion is that the President Elect is so determined to hit the ground running that he has inserted himself into the vacuum.

In the UK the police arrested and questioned a Member of Parliament, Damien Green about his alleged gathering and dissemination of Home Office leaks about immigration. The police not only raided Green’s two homes they also entered his House of Commons office. The police virtually never take such actions, in fact the last time someone attempted to arrest Members of Parliament and enter the territory of the Commons was when Charles I did so with his officers in 1642, and he and his men were ejected and their actions led directly to the English Civil War.

Both of these situations represent well-intentioned leadership that assumes they are always right and certainly never wrong. In the case of the British Prime Minister we have a perfect example of the poacher turned gamekeeper. Gordon Brown is the same man who, when in opposition, built a reputation by obtaining and distributing a constant stream of leaks against the then Conservative government.

Unbelievably the senior politicians to whom the police report in the UK deny all prior knowledge of the police action. I am amongst many others who simply don’t believe this assertion, to the extent that I am calling Minister Jacqui Smith a liar.

Now there will be an investigation by another, supposedly independent police officer to discover the truth. I hope they are able to conduct this investigation quickly and thoroughly, and then whoever authorized and controlled this foolhardy and unacceptable breach of our system should be unceremoniously kicked out of office.

There is, in both countries, an erosion of liberty. In the UK the rate of this shrinking freedom is very alarming, so much so that it is a common discussion amongst the population.

In the USA the jury is still out, as none of us knows the actuality of the Obama Presidency. We can only guess at its shape and style by the tone of its preparation. We all understand his desire to hit the ground running but that does not excuse his pre-emption of Presidential authority and power.

Neither of our countries can afford to allow any further slippage of our constitution or tradition and freedom, too many people have shed too much blood to build them for us.