TzipiLiviniforIsraeliPM

One of the most important news items in the world went largely unreported in the mass media over the last couple of days. I refer to the victory of Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister of Israel, who was newly elected leader of the Kadima party. This should result in her succeeding Ehud Olmert as Prime Minister. She is a feisty, attractive woman in her middle years, and no one doubts that she has presence, style and a smart brain. Now we’re going to find out if she can deliver in the Mid-East, which is never easy but is always unforgiving.

Tzipi Livni aims to take the office of prime minister and has started working on building a new coalition government. The Israeli constitution allows her six weeks to accomplish this task, but the President, Shimon Peres, wants her to do it in a few days in order that no momentum is lost in the various sets of current and separate peace negotiations.

This is the woman, after all, who has been holding peace negotiations with the Palestinians plus the Syrians via the good offices of Turkey and last but not least, planning what Israel’s response will be with regards to the threat of Iran going nuclear and its continuing threats to the Jewish state.

Many Arab leaders in the Middle East regard Livni as a moderate, levelheaded foreign minister. Aluf Benn, a columnist and diplomatic editor of Haaretz, Israel's leading intellectual daily said, "She's been [Ehud] Olmert's No. 2 for two years, and she spent five years in [Ariel] Sharon's government. She's not exactly coming from nowhere. She's been in the system; she was born into it," he says, referring to Livni's background.

Her parents were members of the Irgun, the hard-line pre-independence Zionist militia that in Israel is regarded as being equivalent to having come over with the Mayflower or having fought in the American Revolution.

The official result of her Kadima Party election showed her beating Shaul Mofaz, her closest competitor by just one percentage point. But the tough-minded Ms. Livni strode into the political limelight as if that made no difference.

Livni said her party's choice demonstrated that "there is a different kind of politics. For a very long time I was told there was no such thing, and today Kadima proved that there is."

Her use of the language of political change has drawn parallels with presidential candidate Barack Obama's campaign – and this permeated Livni's pronouncements as she moved from backstage diplomat to front of house policymaker. Unlike many other Israel's politicos of various hues, she is the proud owner of a totally clean reputation.

Livni has created a strong working relationship with her Palestinian counterparts in the renewed peace process, which she invigorated. Domestically she created a buzz because, if successful, she will be the second woman in Israel's history to become prime minister.

But she’s no magician and there are many Israelis and others who warn against unrealistic expectations of sweeping progress on the main issues in the immediate future.

There are all the normal complications that exist in the Byzantine political scene in both Israeli and amongst the Palestinians. There is also the certainty of both sides waiting to see who will be the next US president before moving trying to finalize on any agreement.

When it comes to the feasibility of peacemaking, the same internal divisions amongst the two peoples remain. The basic, underlying problems on the Palestinian side stay the same, with Hamas in charge of Gaza and Fatah holding onto security in the West Bank by their fingernails.

Golda Meir in 1969 was the last Israeli woman Prime Minister. Livni, like Meir, is more appreciated overseas than at home, where she still has many foes. There is little doubt that she faces a tough time initially due to her win over Mofaz being so tight. His is the more typical profile of the ex military insider with much more military knowledge and hawkish credentials. He represents the archetypal picture of the tough guys Israel usually chooses when worried about the prospect of another war.

Livni, however, earned her image of understanding Israel's complex security challenges because of her work as a Mossad officer dealing with intelligence matters.

"The national mission … is to create stability quickly," Livni told reporters. "On the level of government in Israel, we have to deal with difficult threats."

Livni's first, obligatory function is to form a workable coalition government, not a foregone conclusion in politically complex Israel. When Olmert formally resigns, the coalition's government dissolves. Olmert will probably remain as caretaker Prime Minister until a new coalition is approved.

Livni has 42 days to assemble a new coalition; if she does she will almost certainly be the next prime minister. If she can't, new elections will be held early next year.

Huge problems confront her. Shas, one of the long-term coalition partners in the government, state that it won't join a government that will agree to divide Jerusalem. The city has been governed by Israel since they conquered the part they didn’t already control in the 1967 Six Day War.

The situation is very complex and every party will come along with their demands: Shas on Jerusalem and demanding more funds for their children. Labor will have its own demands, but this is Israel, so Likud will want something else.

Livni is not famed for her ability to wheel and deal, but she is rightly proud of her reputation for integrity. Perversely that may make it more difficult for her to survive in this political hot house. I can’t see any real progress across the board until the next elections, in 2009, but the world should all wish this strong woman much luck and a prevailing wind, we could all do with some stability and peace in her very difficult part of the world.