TheFuturePart2

In my most recent blog on this site I made myself a hostage of fortune when I predicted the future of our world. I have, thank you, received a great many communications about this. Some of you believe I am being unduly pessimistic, whereas others take the opposite view. Usually this signals to me that I have got it about right. But today I wanted to add a little more detail to this picture.

I wrote that the recent happenings in the economy meant that the old forms of capitalism have met their end. On the brighter side so have all forms of socialism. I say this because with all its manifest faults it is clear that capitalism can and usually does work when it is in balance and well managed, whereas socialism is a totally busted flush which has never worked for the benefit of the citizens of any country that has had the system foisted upon it.

The immediate future of the leading economies will be more effectively policed and the regulations more stringently applied, but it will still be a market driven economic model that prevails.

The reduction in available funds will, most likely, mean that once the immediate emergency has been addressed the percentage of the Gross Domestic Product being spent on government projects will be reduced. This is a bonus since this percentage; especially in countries like the UK have become bloated and insupportable.

When Obama becomes President, which he shall unless he manages to accomplish political suicide between now and the election, there is a distinct possibility that he might try his version of a New Deal to revitalize America if the recession bites too deep. I don’t know if he can afford not to do so in such a scenario.

Due to losses incurred by all kinds of local and regional funds there will be a concomitant reduction in the amount of cash available for anything the authorities consider non-essential projects. This will affect the quality and feel of life but is probably unavoidable over the next 3 to 5 years.

Businesses that thrive during economic prosperity will begin to suffer in the next few months, particularly fee charging specialists such as lawyers, accountants, consultants and certain purveyors of banking, financial advice and insurance.

Most seriously hit in many of the economies are mortgage brokers and estate agents (realtors) who have seen the volume of sales and their values drop through the floor but I suspect that there will be big winners in those that rent property as those prices are starting to climb and supply is finite whereas demand is bound to increase fast.

Despite all this, if our governments continue to respond with the same sense of urgency they have developed over the last month when dealing with the imploding economy then we need have no fear for social cohesion.

Now what was the good news I was going to forecast? Oh yes, Manchester United will win another trophy or two, the sun is going to come out tomorrow and my name is not Little Orphan Annie.