GimletEyes

“Poland is making itself a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority.”

These are the extremely threatening words of General Nogovitsyn, Russia’s second highest-ranking military man. He was speaking after Poland has agreed with the Americans to host part of their missile shield in their country.

Obviously the Russians see the missile umbrella proposed by the Americans as a threat and are seeking to counter this with some good old- fashioned cold war rhetoric and rattling of sabers.

Over the weekend it became clear that Russian forces were now in control of various Georgian towns and cities despite the ceasefire it had agreed and signed. The agreement had allowed the Russians the right to patrol close to the ceasefire lines but it’s apparent that they are digging in and moving on wherever they feel its appropriate. Important centers like Gori and the countries main East to West highway are presently under Russian military occupation and their army are now within twenty miles of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital.

The future of this area of the world is clearly being driven by its history. Russia collectively remembers the almost ritualized humiliation it suffered at the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Its leadership is determined to reassert itself at the top of the power apex in the world. Russia sees itself as a super power and this is just the first step of the process of making the rest of the world understand this.

But this is more about Russia’s age-old spheres of influence and the geopolitical reassertion of their power. Putin and his Kremlin cronies see Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic States and the entire Caucasus region as part of their sphere of influence.

Last week, on the British television show, Newsnight, a Russian diplomat baldly stated, “If you think this Georgian side show is something wait until you see what’s going to happen in Ukraine!”

The threat is clear, the Russian bear has come out of hibernation and are fulfilling Vladimir Putin’s promise to the Russian people, that he was going to reassert their country’s will on the world.

Of course that’s really what the Russian invasion of Georgia is really all about. They have tested the West’s resolve to support their Georgian ally and found us wanting. The Russians know we are in the same mood as Neville Chamberlain at Munich. The Russians know they have an open goal in which to score. Will they decide to exploit the advantage?

America is making all the right noises, but as discussed previously in this column, there’s nothing concrete America can do militarily to resist these Russian actions. Unless America pulled out of Afghanistan or Iraq it just doesn’t have the spare capacity, the resources, or, let’s face it, the will, to take the Russians on.

America’s only other military options involve its navy and air force. All of us hope and believe they will not go strategically crazy with a disproportionately large-scale response. However a blockade or a small bombing run would be just a gesture that could, nevertheless, harvest much more serious reactions.

Much more likely is some concerted diplomatic pressure on Russia to behave. But Russia is clearly prepared to pay a diplomatic and economic price to achieve its strategic goals.

This was proved over the last week when Russia’s financial masters dumped some of its Western stocks and shares at a loss to make their anger visible.

When it was voiced to Russian diplomats that their country might be thrown out of the G8 rich countries club he burst into laughter. His point of view was obvious, “we can live without it.” That doesn’t mean that the West can or should simply stand on the sidelines as Russia’s acts threaten to conquer Georgia, and remove it from the political map.

The international community must apply intense, continuous and increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia.

The Russians must also be economically sanctioned in whatever ways that makes them understand that they will lose more than they gain by their repressive, rapacious and retrograde actions against Georgia.