I am taking a break from writing these articles for a few days, it’s a kind of a blog writers “gone fishing”. Except I can think of nothing I would like to do less. Actually I can. What would be worse is to attend the G20 conference in London next week to listen to the man who was created in a lab when Tony Blair took all the worst aspects of Socialism and conjoined these with the most scabrous parts of Capitalism to create a Frankenstein monster called Gordon Brown.
What did the UK do so wrong to deserve this man?
Brown’s week was enlivened when he delivered his speech to one of the most boring and creepy centers of world government, the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
In response to the Brown presence a British backbench Conservative Member of the European Parliament for South East England, Daniel Hannan delivered an eviscerating condemnation directly to Brown who can be seen trying to smile his way through the attack. In doing this the young Tory has touched a nerve around the world, with approximately a million hits on You Tube in just a couple of days.
Brown looked on helplessly while gritting his teeth, smiling mirthlessly, he shook his head as the Tory caricatured him as a 'Brezhnev era apparatchik' who is ' pathologically incapable' of accepting any of the responsibility for his role in the financial crisis.
The video of MEP Daniel Hannan delivering this no holds barred but measured verbal assassination of the Prime Minister and his gross mis-handling of the economic crisis instantly flowered into a surprise hit on the Internet.
The 37-year-old MEP, who was the youngest British member elected to the European Parliament in 1999, yesterday received plaudits for his tongue-lashing.
Major Broadcasters - including the BBC – totally and abysmally failed to report Mr Hannan's onslaught despite giving full coverage to Mr Brown's most pro-European speech to date and having been forewarned that Hannan was going to respond.
But the world of the old-fashioned broadcaster having the ultimate control over what we are allowed to see is now gone with the advent of almost universal access to the Internet, twitter and mobile communications.
So the speech by the young Conservative firebrand was quickly posted on You Tube and news outlets from Australia to America seized on his comments.
The clip lingers on Prime Minister Brown looking on with a frozen smile, while Hannan warned how Britain was entering the recession in a 'dilapidated condition' with an 'almost unbelievable' deficit.”
It’s time more responsible people took up this battle and said what needs saying. The Emperor, Gordon Brown, has no clothes, he is being transported around the earth in borrowed transportation, shouting to anyone who will listen, “look at my wonderful clothing!” but he is as naked and feeble as the day he was born and it is our duty to tell him until he is forced to listen.
In the meantime I shall be doing something completely different as the G20 convenes in London to the inevitable riots of protesters finding any excuse to misbehave like anarchists in the name of democracy. Whilst inside the hallowed halls of diplomacy a bunch of small well padded boys and girls pretend to be serious politicians and economists who know the economic answers and do their best to avoid another Great Depression.
Let’s just hope we get lucky because nothing, so far, makes me believe our leaders have a clue what to do.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
TheJuryIsOut
President Obama retains a great deal of his victorious feel good factor. Almost everyone, even his political foes need and want him to succeed if for nothing more than enlightened self-interest. He, unlike Gordon Brown retains a feel good aura; a ready smile and the appropriate words that make us believe he might have the right answers.
But does anyone really have the required knowledge to navigate these uncharted and dangerous economic storms?
Gordon Brown became Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of then Prime Minister Tony Blair’s first government, a dozen years ago. His first action was to divorce the Bank of England from his own direct control. The reason he gave for doing this was so that the Bank of England would set interest rates in order to control inflation independent of any political considerations.
Now Gordon Brown is Prime Minister I would bet big money that he wishes the Bank of England were still in his own direct control. Last night the Governor of the Bank shook the government to the tips of its toes when he said that finance deficits were already too high and therefore there is no room for the Prime Minister to engineer either big tax cuts or any further spending increases to spark life into the economy.
The timing of the Bank Governors intervention couldn’t have been more embarrassing or unfortunately timed for Brown. It comes a few weeks before the next big budget, on April 22 and more or less simultaneous to the Prime Minister making an impassioned pro financial stimulus package to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. He has been touring the world promoting his ideas of a global stimulus package prior to the next G20 summit of the world’s economic superpowers, which he is hosting in London next week.
Mervyn King, the Governor of England’s central Bank, doesn’t believe the country can afford any further stimuli. Gordon Brown believes we have to find a way to afford to stimulate the economy.
An auction in government debt in the UK failed to achieve the target sum for the first time in 7 years. A major warning sign we would do well to heed.
Brown believes that we must be prepared to do what is necessary to resume the growth in the economy achieved by the fiscal stimulus strategy promoted by President Obama and Brown, This includes quantitative easing and extraordinarily low interest rates and effectively means spending our way out of the recession.
The current European President, the Czech leader, believes that the road to hell is paved with the President Obama fiscal stimulus plan.
This is possibly the most important economic argument ever to be fought in the world since the Great Depression and the implications for our future well-being are enormous.
Although it is pleasing and somewhat cathartic to castigate and condemn the wrongdoers and criminals in the financial sector who cost us all so much with their stupidity and greed it is not the most important of the tasks that must be conquered.
Neither should we focus too much attention on more regulations when all we ever needed to do was enforce the regulations that already existed. In fact there is a very good argument to reduce regulations, and make the markets simpler.
Of equal or possibly even more far reaching consequence, we have to consider the future of markets that have operated more like bookmakers. We should eliminate shadow markets and return to a world where financial instruments must be real and paid for.
Right now the battle for the hearts and minds of the G20 leaders is under way and during the next week they will decide whether we spend our way forward, hopefully out of the recession or, as I think is equally likely, we move into a Japanese style decade of stagflation. The jury is out.
But does anyone really have the required knowledge to navigate these uncharted and dangerous economic storms?
Gordon Brown became Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of then Prime Minister Tony Blair’s first government, a dozen years ago. His first action was to divorce the Bank of England from his own direct control. The reason he gave for doing this was so that the Bank of England would set interest rates in order to control inflation independent of any political considerations.
Now Gordon Brown is Prime Minister I would bet big money that he wishes the Bank of England were still in his own direct control. Last night the Governor of the Bank shook the government to the tips of its toes when he said that finance deficits were already too high and therefore there is no room for the Prime Minister to engineer either big tax cuts or any further spending increases to spark life into the economy.
The timing of the Bank Governors intervention couldn’t have been more embarrassing or unfortunately timed for Brown. It comes a few weeks before the next big budget, on April 22 and more or less simultaneous to the Prime Minister making an impassioned pro financial stimulus package to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. He has been touring the world promoting his ideas of a global stimulus package prior to the next G20 summit of the world’s economic superpowers, which he is hosting in London next week.
Mervyn King, the Governor of England’s central Bank, doesn’t believe the country can afford any further stimuli. Gordon Brown believes we have to find a way to afford to stimulate the economy.
An auction in government debt in the UK failed to achieve the target sum for the first time in 7 years. A major warning sign we would do well to heed.
Brown believes that we must be prepared to do what is necessary to resume the growth in the economy achieved by the fiscal stimulus strategy promoted by President Obama and Brown, This includes quantitative easing and extraordinarily low interest rates and effectively means spending our way out of the recession.
The current European President, the Czech leader, believes that the road to hell is paved with the President Obama fiscal stimulus plan.
This is possibly the most important economic argument ever to be fought in the world since the Great Depression and the implications for our future well-being are enormous.
Although it is pleasing and somewhat cathartic to castigate and condemn the wrongdoers and criminals in the financial sector who cost us all so much with their stupidity and greed it is not the most important of the tasks that must be conquered.
Neither should we focus too much attention on more regulations when all we ever needed to do was enforce the regulations that already existed. In fact there is a very good argument to reduce regulations, and make the markets simpler.
Of equal or possibly even more far reaching consequence, we have to consider the future of markets that have operated more like bookmakers. We should eliminate shadow markets and return to a world where financial instruments must be real and paid for.
Right now the battle for the hearts and minds of the G20 leaders is under way and during the next week they will decide whether we spend our way forward, hopefully out of the recession or, as I think is equally likely, we move into a Japanese style decade of stagflation. The jury is out.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Recovery
The announcement of the plans released by the US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner seems to have excited the market in Wall Street. The main indexes rose by 6% whilst the banks roared ahead by 15%.
The fundamental underpinning of the plan is that America is committing $1 trillion to buy huge amounts of toxic debt. The idea behind this is that this will unplug the capital markets and credit will again be available in a more normal manner. Like it used to be. But the sad fact is that it isn’t going to ever be quite like it was before.
As the American housing market seems to be picking up a bit, and a chink of sunlight is soothing the incipient panic in the US banking sector the German GDP is expected to fall between 6 to 7% during this year. China is taking progressively more defensive measures and the eastern European countries, formerly part of the Soviet bloc are on the edge of the financial precipice.
No one knows how our collective vulnerability will show itself next. Will the bigger economies have to bail out more of the second and third world countries, and do they have the firepower to do so?
The new emperors of the universe come from Asia and Arabia but it is a very flawed power.
The Chinese continue to live with a paradox. A relatively capitalist economy that is centrally managed by an underlying Soviet type politburo be it political or military. Their controlling fingers are in every pie. But now the global economy is in chaos at precisely the moment China is about to assert itself as a superpower. Is it tenable for China to keep the lid on personal and political freedom whilst energizing and possibly liberalizing their economy and that of the world around them?
There must be a huge temptation for the fairly geriatric Chinese leadership to totally withdraw from the international disaster. However there must be an even more compelling temptation to use the country’s huge reserves for maximum strategic leverage. Will China tear itself apart because of the contradictions of its system or survive and go on to become the pre-eminent global superpower?
The oil rich Arab countries wealth is almost entirely due to their oil revenues and reserves. This is not a sound basis for long-term stability. At present these countries desperately need to create structure and broaden their resources.
As I have written before, you write America off at your peril. But the first shoots of recovery are still a very long way in the distance.
But it has become obvious that the old order is dead and will never come back.
The fundamental underpinning of the plan is that America is committing $1 trillion to buy huge amounts of toxic debt. The idea behind this is that this will unplug the capital markets and credit will again be available in a more normal manner. Like it used to be. But the sad fact is that it isn’t going to ever be quite like it was before.
As the American housing market seems to be picking up a bit, and a chink of sunlight is soothing the incipient panic in the US banking sector the German GDP is expected to fall between 6 to 7% during this year. China is taking progressively more defensive measures and the eastern European countries, formerly part of the Soviet bloc are on the edge of the financial precipice.
No one knows how our collective vulnerability will show itself next. Will the bigger economies have to bail out more of the second and third world countries, and do they have the firepower to do so?
The new emperors of the universe come from Asia and Arabia but it is a very flawed power.
The Chinese continue to live with a paradox. A relatively capitalist economy that is centrally managed by an underlying Soviet type politburo be it political or military. Their controlling fingers are in every pie. But now the global economy is in chaos at precisely the moment China is about to assert itself as a superpower. Is it tenable for China to keep the lid on personal and political freedom whilst energizing and possibly liberalizing their economy and that of the world around them?
There must be a huge temptation for the fairly geriatric Chinese leadership to totally withdraw from the international disaster. However there must be an even more compelling temptation to use the country’s huge reserves for maximum strategic leverage. Will China tear itself apart because of the contradictions of its system or survive and go on to become the pre-eminent global superpower?
The oil rich Arab countries wealth is almost entirely due to their oil revenues and reserves. This is not a sound basis for long-term stability. At present these countries desperately need to create structure and broaden their resources.
As I have written before, you write America off at your peril. But the first shoots of recovery are still a very long way in the distance.
But it has become obvious that the old order is dead and will never come back.
Monday, March 23, 2009
LossOfTrust
Our society operates on the base of faith and trust. Lose this and we experience misery and possible anarchy.
The basis of what makes things tick is economic. If the oil of money is not in the engine it will seize up and that is precisely what’s happening. Once the money vanishes we are left with a future of damage control.
Everything else starts to fall apart without money. Taxation must rise, but the government take decreases as businesses and individuals make less profit, if they profit at all. There will be less cash available for public works and consumers have less money to spend. Even if they have money they lack the confidence to spend when there is growing doubt that they will keep their jobs. The people are suffering from an enormous confidence deficit and an almost total lack of faith in our system.
There was never a time in modern history when our banks held enough cash to meet a potential run on the bank. These institutions, even at their most prudent and solid, never held a dollar or a pound for each pound or dollar deposited with them. It was more like 10% to 15%. It all worked pretty well when no one questioned the solidity and credit worthiness of our banking giants.
Similarly governments work because of the acquiescence of a compliant and law abiding population. The deal being that we shall abide by your laws as long as we feel they’re reasonable and not too far from our notion of fairness. When laws are seen to be unfair there are many examples of the furious reaction of the people. Revolutions and civil wars have started huge bloodbaths because of perceived injustice.
Fundamental questions like this must be asked when the rulebook is being torn up and thrown away. A contemporary large-scale survey amongst young people in Germany found that this group, although largely apathetic about political parties in general, reserved their largest support for the far right. In Austria more than 30% of the general electorate now vote for the Fascist parties. The same trends are becoming evident for a growing swathe of Europe.
Over the last few days I have been conducting a straw pole. I asked an entirely unscientific group of people, here and in the USA a question. They have no link other than me as their common denominator.
The question is this: -
“If you were now to see a person come on your television and say that he is a banker, taking deposits, to be guaranteed by the government 100%, and this guarantee is backed up by a government spokesman. The banker offers a return of 7.5% per year, starting immediately. Will you invest your money with him?”
Well, what do you think?
The banker received a 100% rejection.
Not one person I questioned was prepared to invest their money with my fictitious banker.
This proves that our faith in banks and bankers has totally vanished, and it will be a very long time before it can be recaptured. There is no more important task for our leaders than to reverse this.
The basis of what makes things tick is economic. If the oil of money is not in the engine it will seize up and that is precisely what’s happening. Once the money vanishes we are left with a future of damage control.
Everything else starts to fall apart without money. Taxation must rise, but the government take decreases as businesses and individuals make less profit, if they profit at all. There will be less cash available for public works and consumers have less money to spend. Even if they have money they lack the confidence to spend when there is growing doubt that they will keep their jobs. The people are suffering from an enormous confidence deficit and an almost total lack of faith in our system.
There was never a time in modern history when our banks held enough cash to meet a potential run on the bank. These institutions, even at their most prudent and solid, never held a dollar or a pound for each pound or dollar deposited with them. It was more like 10% to 15%. It all worked pretty well when no one questioned the solidity and credit worthiness of our banking giants.
Similarly governments work because of the acquiescence of a compliant and law abiding population. The deal being that we shall abide by your laws as long as we feel they’re reasonable and not too far from our notion of fairness. When laws are seen to be unfair there are many examples of the furious reaction of the people. Revolutions and civil wars have started huge bloodbaths because of perceived injustice.
Fundamental questions like this must be asked when the rulebook is being torn up and thrown away. A contemporary large-scale survey amongst young people in Germany found that this group, although largely apathetic about political parties in general, reserved their largest support for the far right. In Austria more than 30% of the general electorate now vote for the Fascist parties. The same trends are becoming evident for a growing swathe of Europe.
Over the last few days I have been conducting a straw pole. I asked an entirely unscientific group of people, here and in the USA a question. They have no link other than me as their common denominator.
The question is this: -
“If you were now to see a person come on your television and say that he is a banker, taking deposits, to be guaranteed by the government 100%, and this guarantee is backed up by a government spokesman. The banker offers a return of 7.5% per year, starting immediately. Will you invest your money with him?”
Well, what do you think?
The banker received a 100% rejection.
Not one person I questioned was prepared to invest their money with my fictitious banker.
This proves that our faith in banks and bankers has totally vanished, and it will be a very long time before it can be recaptured. There is no more important task for our leaders than to reverse this.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
WhichWayForward
There are not many aspects of the present government in the UK or the last one in the US that I agree with. In fact the list is so small and inconsequential it’s hardly worth mentioning. On the other hand I don’t disagree with everything they did nor do I think they were or are entirely evil.
The single biggest mistakes they both made was to try and make facts conform to their political theories and if not, to force a fit. As an example I am convinced that one day in Britain we will discover that virtually unrestricted immigration was a social political experiment.
Don’t get me wrong, I am virulently opposed to both the hard left and hard right, and in fact every ”ism” appalls and scares me. But I just don’t believe it could have been possible for literally millions of foreign nationals to enter this country illegally without at least the tacit connivance of those responsible for our borders.
Either these officials are criminally inept or they wanted this to happen. The results are the same and in the present economic circumstances could prove catastrophic. I say this in the knowledge that less than one hundred years ago my grandparents and their siblings arrived in this country and America, penniless refugees.
The numbers of immigrants then allowed in was in direct proportion to the needs of their new host countries. Put another way, the bargain suited both sides of the equation. It made some sense.
Now there are a huge number of new immigrants in our countries and our economies are in free fall. If the economic migrants were to simply go home there wouldn’t be a problem here, but there would be a huge problem in their countries. The new reality is that there are new camps being built in France for all the new migrants fighting to get into the UK, and the net numbers in the UK are growing so fast that the UK is forecast to overtake Germany’s population having once been far smaller.
What will happen when the indigenous population can’t get or keep jobs but the new migrants stay and prosper? This will potentially lead to problems that could lead to substantial civil strife.
America has different but related problems. Of them all I believe that the most immediate and affordable will be remaking the economic model of the USA to re-emphasize its ability to manufacture its way out of most problems when taken together with its huge capacity to export raw materials. This must be achieved and the education system re-engineered to produce what America needs so that it can compete.
The UK has to re-imagine itself and recreate its ability to deliver great products that are brilliantly designed and engineered. That was what worked in the Anglo American economic model and we simply walked away because we became besotted in making money out of thin air and betting on futures. The so called “knowledge economy” only works if you have something worth saying.
The key problems are, as ever, related to our wallets and sense of well-being. As this becomes progressively more problematic there would be a cycle of action and reaction in proportion to the desperation of the population. We could see either Fascism or Communism become a power again and with it a major, equal and opposite, probably violent reaction.
We must address educational necessities, fixing the economy and immigration as matters of equal priority. No one of these fixes is going to be sufficient, we need them all.
The single biggest mistakes they both made was to try and make facts conform to their political theories and if not, to force a fit. As an example I am convinced that one day in Britain we will discover that virtually unrestricted immigration was a social political experiment.
Don’t get me wrong, I am virulently opposed to both the hard left and hard right, and in fact every ”ism” appalls and scares me. But I just don’t believe it could have been possible for literally millions of foreign nationals to enter this country illegally without at least the tacit connivance of those responsible for our borders.
Either these officials are criminally inept or they wanted this to happen. The results are the same and in the present economic circumstances could prove catastrophic. I say this in the knowledge that less than one hundred years ago my grandparents and their siblings arrived in this country and America, penniless refugees.
The numbers of immigrants then allowed in was in direct proportion to the needs of their new host countries. Put another way, the bargain suited both sides of the equation. It made some sense.
Now there are a huge number of new immigrants in our countries and our economies are in free fall. If the economic migrants were to simply go home there wouldn’t be a problem here, but there would be a huge problem in their countries. The new reality is that there are new camps being built in France for all the new migrants fighting to get into the UK, and the net numbers in the UK are growing so fast that the UK is forecast to overtake Germany’s population having once been far smaller.
What will happen when the indigenous population can’t get or keep jobs but the new migrants stay and prosper? This will potentially lead to problems that could lead to substantial civil strife.
America has different but related problems. Of them all I believe that the most immediate and affordable will be remaking the economic model of the USA to re-emphasize its ability to manufacture its way out of most problems when taken together with its huge capacity to export raw materials. This must be achieved and the education system re-engineered to produce what America needs so that it can compete.
The UK has to re-imagine itself and recreate its ability to deliver great products that are brilliantly designed and engineered. That was what worked in the Anglo American economic model and we simply walked away because we became besotted in making money out of thin air and betting on futures. The so called “knowledge economy” only works if you have something worth saying.
The key problems are, as ever, related to our wallets and sense of well-being. As this becomes progressively more problematic there would be a cycle of action and reaction in proportion to the desperation of the population. We could see either Fascism or Communism become a power again and with it a major, equal and opposite, probably violent reaction.
We must address educational necessities, fixing the economy and immigration as matters of equal priority. No one of these fixes is going to be sufficient, we need them all.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
AnAcademicResponse
Below I reproduce a letter received from Brad, an educator in the States. It is in response to my article yesterday in this column about the way forward for our education systems.
By way of explanation I was trying to make the point that we needed the hard subjects to be taught with rigor, I was arguing against pointless creative degrees that don’t help either the students or society. I wholeheartedly support and participate in higher education for meaningful creative degrees that result in fulfillment and jobs.
There is a very real advantage in higher education for its own sake, and we should all treasure and protect it. However, to survive and prosper as successful countries in every sense, we must re-learn some very basic lessons. One of these is that we have to manufacture for ourselves, grow more and sell more. To achieve this we must educate our young to these ends; perhaps not instead of entirely, but as well as.
Now over to Brad: -
“As you can well imagine, I am on board with your column on education.
One caveat: you can't build a math/science culture by freaking out about foreign competition. There has to be a "pure" interest in science in the culture at large--as there was in physics and logic at the beginning of
this century, the space race later on, etc.
The most revolutionary ideas emerge from pure research and this is what is disappearing e.g.—the supercollider, kyboshed in Texas some years ago. Very few people could explain what that is all about; therefore, the money dries up. This was less of a problem with the moon shot. That's why the humanities are not trivial--science cannot situate itself as a narrative, metaphor or cultural vector--you need writers, thinkers, and moviemakers--but literate ones.
I'm struck in reading math bios how many got into the field because of George Gamow's "1,2,3...infinity." That little book sent a lot of
people on their way--as did science fiction, the very lucid philosophical,
Pop sci books of Einstein (Einstein and Infeld's Evolution of Physics),
Asimov, Raymond Smullyan...there's just no hook right now. The kids don't
care about outer space, which is fine and understandable, they care about inner space.
O.k., but innovations in computing require a background in
Math and mathematical logic--so the hook as to be elsewhere than
gadgets--e.g. --What exactly is a non-classical logic? Are we made of?
logic--or something else--is that "something else" writable in logic, or
does it show up as a barrier (we get knowledge of it negatively)? Why
does group theory explain so much at the level of particle physics--did
God make the world from group theory, or again, is there a "something
else" we will never get our hands on, but that keeps reinventing itself as
new paradigms? I would say there is even a mystical-religious hook
there for some--which is not a bad place for religion-- The "answers" to
these questions, open-ended as they are, are in the actual math and
science--that should be the hook.
Just putting a kid on a computer is not solving anything--though that is
much of the budget in education nowadays--building enormous computer labs.
I would slash way back on that and hire math science people at top dollar who actually know how to teach--a rare combination. Those people need a chalkboard and textbooks--that's about it really, at least in math/logic, which is the pedestal on which it all rests. Mostly they need money to make it worth their while--which will never happen as long as teacher's unions are in charge.”
By way of explanation I was trying to make the point that we needed the hard subjects to be taught with rigor, I was arguing against pointless creative degrees that don’t help either the students or society. I wholeheartedly support and participate in higher education for meaningful creative degrees that result in fulfillment and jobs.
There is a very real advantage in higher education for its own sake, and we should all treasure and protect it. However, to survive and prosper as successful countries in every sense, we must re-learn some very basic lessons. One of these is that we have to manufacture for ourselves, grow more and sell more. To achieve this we must educate our young to these ends; perhaps not instead of entirely, but as well as.
Now over to Brad: -
“As you can well imagine, I am on board with your column on education.
One caveat: you can't build a math/science culture by freaking out about foreign competition. There has to be a "pure" interest in science in the culture at large--as there was in physics and logic at the beginning of
this century, the space race later on, etc.
The most revolutionary ideas emerge from pure research and this is what is disappearing e.g.—the supercollider, kyboshed in Texas some years ago. Very few people could explain what that is all about; therefore, the money dries up. This was less of a problem with the moon shot. That's why the humanities are not trivial--science cannot situate itself as a narrative, metaphor or cultural vector--you need writers, thinkers, and moviemakers--but literate ones.
I'm struck in reading math bios how many got into the field because of George Gamow's "1,2,3...infinity." That little book sent a lot of
people on their way--as did science fiction, the very lucid philosophical,
Pop sci books of Einstein (Einstein and Infeld's Evolution of Physics),
Asimov, Raymond Smullyan...there's just no hook right now. The kids don't
care about outer space, which is fine and understandable, they care about inner space.
O.k., but innovations in computing require a background in
Math and mathematical logic--so the hook as to be elsewhere than
gadgets--e.g. --What exactly is a non-classical logic? Are we made of?
logic--or something else--is that "something else" writable in logic, or
does it show up as a barrier (we get knowledge of it negatively)? Why
does group theory explain so much at the level of particle physics--did
God make the world from group theory, or again, is there a "something
else" we will never get our hands on, but that keeps reinventing itself as
new paradigms? I would say there is even a mystical-religious hook
there for some--which is not a bad place for religion-- The "answers" to
these questions, open-ended as they are, are in the actual math and
science--that should be the hook.
Just putting a kid on a computer is not solving anything--though that is
much of the budget in education nowadays--building enormous computer labs.
I would slash way back on that and hire math science people at top dollar who actually know how to teach--a rare combination. Those people need a chalkboard and textbooks--that's about it really, at least in math/logic, which is the pedestal on which it all rests. Mostly they need money to make it worth their while--which will never happen as long as teacher's unions are in charge.”
Friday, March 20, 2009
AcademicMisconceptions
Today is one of those wonderful days when England is the greatest place in the world. The sun is shining and the world has a smile on its face. Dare I say that the winter is being replaced by the first warmer breath of a more gentle spring?
Yesterday was also fabulous but I spent the entire day in a series of meetings as Process Panel Member for two pre-validation meetings preparing new BA degrees. I mustn’t mention any details here but I do want to touch on what this means.
The English validation and external examiner systems are, if used correctly, excellent safeguards for the academic credibility of our country. Despite what you hear about our system being terrible you shouldn’t be too dismayed. Yes, there are faults, but the system is not all bad.
One of the best proofs of this is that so many other countries still envy our system of higher education. This is evidenced when they seek the services of our academics at every level and for all purposes.
Despite being constantly under funded our best universities still compare favorably with the best in the world. Our average institutions continue to be on a par with those of a similar type elsewhere and are better than most.
The poor universities in England are pretty bad if you measure them purely as academic or research institutions. But the truth is that the way we measure these places is not appropriate to their original design. They are more suited to their original vocational type qualifications created when they were still Polytechnics.
What must be understood and rectified is the most important element of the real problem. We are simply not creating enough graduates of excellence in the subject areas that will support our society in future.
We need an ever-growing cadre of engineers, mathematicians, scientists, doctors and computer designers but we lack them in sufficient numbers. This is because we have encouraged a generation of people such as unemployable ill-defined creative folks to accompany too many social scientists and psychologists. I make this statement despite the fact that I work in the creative area. As a country we will not be able to sustain so many people working in the non-productive Public sector, we can no longer afford such conceit.
Not only are we undershooting the number of people required for the essential disciplines but we are also failing to ensure that they are of top international top quality. The future graduate has to be to be able to battle with a chance of winning in the future very competitive fields they will inhabit.
The root cause of this lack of our people excelling in the right areas started in a perverse and seemingly unconnected manner. In the middle 1980’s it became acceptable for our doctrinaire educators to mislead our young children that winning and losing was finished. Competition was actively discouraged. Such positions as first or last were effectively abolished.
The results are self-evident and totally counter productive. How do you tell a student that his exam results matters when it has been drummed into him that competition is somehow evil and negative?
Similar muddled thinking and attempts at social engineering took place in the USA and the consequences in the Community College system has been progressively more dumb students.
This simply has to stop or we will be buried by more motivated and qualified graduates from the emerging powerhouse economies in such countries as India and China. All we will be qualified to do is consume the products of these countries and entertain our new masters in exchange for crumbs from their table.
Yesterday was also fabulous but I spent the entire day in a series of meetings as Process Panel Member for two pre-validation meetings preparing new BA degrees. I mustn’t mention any details here but I do want to touch on what this means.
The English validation and external examiner systems are, if used correctly, excellent safeguards for the academic credibility of our country. Despite what you hear about our system being terrible you shouldn’t be too dismayed. Yes, there are faults, but the system is not all bad.
One of the best proofs of this is that so many other countries still envy our system of higher education. This is evidenced when they seek the services of our academics at every level and for all purposes.
Despite being constantly under funded our best universities still compare favorably with the best in the world. Our average institutions continue to be on a par with those of a similar type elsewhere and are better than most.
The poor universities in England are pretty bad if you measure them purely as academic or research institutions. But the truth is that the way we measure these places is not appropriate to their original design. They are more suited to their original vocational type qualifications created when they were still Polytechnics.
What must be understood and rectified is the most important element of the real problem. We are simply not creating enough graduates of excellence in the subject areas that will support our society in future.
We need an ever-growing cadre of engineers, mathematicians, scientists, doctors and computer designers but we lack them in sufficient numbers. This is because we have encouraged a generation of people such as unemployable ill-defined creative folks to accompany too many social scientists and psychologists. I make this statement despite the fact that I work in the creative area. As a country we will not be able to sustain so many people working in the non-productive Public sector, we can no longer afford such conceit.
Not only are we undershooting the number of people required for the essential disciplines but we are also failing to ensure that they are of top international top quality. The future graduate has to be to be able to battle with a chance of winning in the future very competitive fields they will inhabit.
The root cause of this lack of our people excelling in the right areas started in a perverse and seemingly unconnected manner. In the middle 1980’s it became acceptable for our doctrinaire educators to mislead our young children that winning and losing was finished. Competition was actively discouraged. Such positions as first or last were effectively abolished.
The results are self-evident and totally counter productive. How do you tell a student that his exam results matters when it has been drummed into him that competition is somehow evil and negative?
Similar muddled thinking and attempts at social engineering took place in the USA and the consequences in the Community College system has been progressively more dumb students.
This simply has to stop or we will be buried by more motivated and qualified graduates from the emerging powerhouse economies in such countries as India and China. All we will be qualified to do is consume the products of these countries and entertain our new masters in exchange for crumbs from their table.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
TheFutureArrives
On Friday, October 17, 2008 I wrote an article entitled, “Predicting the Future” in which I stated;
“There are certain things a shrewd columnist should never do; chief amongst them is any attempt to predict the future. This article proves that I am not very shrewd as I am going to attempt some forecasting.
We start with a relative no brainer; Obama is going to be the next President of the USA. I’m not suggesting who my preference is here, as its not relevant, me not being American and therefore unable to cast a vote.
Once Obama is elected and in office I truly hope that the security services does everything to enhance his personal safety as he is sure to be a target for every nut case on the planet, particularly American lunatics who view him as if he were the anti-Christ.
The next people likely to test Obama once he’s in the White House will be the Russians, as its almost impossible to see President Putin not seeing how far he can push the new man. The likely spot for the test will be the Crimean Peninsula of the Ukraine, in which the majority of the population is ethnically Russian but the government is Ukrainian. The situation is made more volatile by the Ukrainian government wishing to move west politically whilst the Russian fleet has its base in Sebastopol within the Ukraine. This is the Georgian scenario writ large, and is a boil waiting to burst.”
Yesterday the future arrived without many people even noticing. During a speech to his military leaders President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday announced a "large-scale" rearmament and renewal of Russia's nuclear arsenal, accusing NATO of pushing ahead with expansion near Russian borders.
He was addressing a meeting of Russia’s defense chiefs in Moscow, Medvedev said, "From 2011, a large-scale rearmament of the army and navy will begin,”
He went on to call for a renewal of Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal whilst claiming that NATO is continuing its push to expand the alliance's physical presence surrounding Russia's borders.
"Analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that a serious conflict potential remains in some regions," Medvedev said.
He focused on local crises and international terrorism as security threats and added: "Attempts to expand the military infrastructure of NATO near the borders of our country are continuing. The primary task is to increase the combat readiness of our forces, first of all our strategic nuclear forces. They must be able to fulfill all tasks necessary to ensure Russia's security,"
Medvedev went on to praise Russia's military thrust into Georgia last year in defense of the rebel region of South Ossetia, he also said the conflict had shown up the military's failings.
The comments came despite an apparent thawing of US-Russian relations since the inauguration of President Barack Obama in January. But this is the first test by the big beasts of the new President’s resolve.
“There are certain things a shrewd columnist should never do; chief amongst them is any attempt to predict the future. This article proves that I am not very shrewd as I am going to attempt some forecasting.
We start with a relative no brainer; Obama is going to be the next President of the USA. I’m not suggesting who my preference is here, as its not relevant, me not being American and therefore unable to cast a vote.
Once Obama is elected and in office I truly hope that the security services does everything to enhance his personal safety as he is sure to be a target for every nut case on the planet, particularly American lunatics who view him as if he were the anti-Christ.
The next people likely to test Obama once he’s in the White House will be the Russians, as its almost impossible to see President Putin not seeing how far he can push the new man. The likely spot for the test will be the Crimean Peninsula of the Ukraine, in which the majority of the population is ethnically Russian but the government is Ukrainian. The situation is made more volatile by the Ukrainian government wishing to move west politically whilst the Russian fleet has its base in Sebastopol within the Ukraine. This is the Georgian scenario writ large, and is a boil waiting to burst.”
Yesterday the future arrived without many people even noticing. During a speech to his military leaders President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday announced a "large-scale" rearmament and renewal of Russia's nuclear arsenal, accusing NATO of pushing ahead with expansion near Russian borders.
He was addressing a meeting of Russia’s defense chiefs in Moscow, Medvedev said, "From 2011, a large-scale rearmament of the army and navy will begin,”
He went on to call for a renewal of Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal whilst claiming that NATO is continuing its push to expand the alliance's physical presence surrounding Russia's borders.
"Analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that a serious conflict potential remains in some regions," Medvedev said.
He focused on local crises and international terrorism as security threats and added: "Attempts to expand the military infrastructure of NATO near the borders of our country are continuing. The primary task is to increase the combat readiness of our forces, first of all our strategic nuclear forces. They must be able to fulfill all tasks necessary to ensure Russia's security,"
Medvedev went on to praise Russia's military thrust into Georgia last year in defense of the rebel region of South Ossetia, he also said the conflict had shown up the military's failings.
The comments came despite an apparent thawing of US-Russian relations since the inauguration of President Barack Obama in January. But this is the first test by the big beasts of the new President’s resolve.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
NannyState
We return to one of my pet peeves, the Nanny State. In Britain almost every aspect of our lives is now considered fair game for our political masters.
Not satisfied with taxes, both visible and invisible, too numerous to mention, they now feel quite entitled to tell us what we should eat, how much, when to exercise, what our kids should eat at school, how much alcohol we should consume, how to sift our garbage, what type of cars to drive. In fact the list is endless.
If you go to the cinema in time for the advertising most of it features the things you should or shouldn’t do. Today I went to the movies and there were slots to tell you to conduct safe sex, another to remind you to drive slowly, and yet another to watch out for motorcyclists. This was in addition to the material extolling the virtue of continuing education and surely it can’t be long before they tell us to love our mothers!
Our government is now in the habit of floating some of their more outlandish ideas in advance to the media and then, dependant on the public reaction will decide whether to move forward with the plan.
Over the last weekend the Health gurus floated the idea of creating a minimum price for each unit of alcohol, thus eliminating cheap drink presently available from the supermarkets. The argument for doing this is to reduce the amount of ill health suffered and bad behavior perpetrated by those ignorant enough to over consume the demon booze.
Personally I consume virtually no alcohol so this doesn’t directly affect me, but it isn’t right for the government to use a tax to force anyone to drink less. It is not the government’s business to tell me how to live my life unless what I am doing directly and negatively affects someone else. Politicians should not, must not presume that they know what’s best for the individuals of our country.
Perhaps if the politicians were super efficient and morally and physically superior they could lead by example. But the sad truth is that they are now seen to be useless managers, inept at finance, are mean spirited, pompous and many of them are greedy and corrupt. Secretly many of them smoke, and the majority certainly doesn’t bear close physical examination.
It’s time our politicians concentrated on their jobs and left our lives to us.
Not satisfied with taxes, both visible and invisible, too numerous to mention, they now feel quite entitled to tell us what we should eat, how much, when to exercise, what our kids should eat at school, how much alcohol we should consume, how to sift our garbage, what type of cars to drive. In fact the list is endless.
If you go to the cinema in time for the advertising most of it features the things you should or shouldn’t do. Today I went to the movies and there were slots to tell you to conduct safe sex, another to remind you to drive slowly, and yet another to watch out for motorcyclists. This was in addition to the material extolling the virtue of continuing education and surely it can’t be long before they tell us to love our mothers!
Our government is now in the habit of floating some of their more outlandish ideas in advance to the media and then, dependant on the public reaction will decide whether to move forward with the plan.
Over the last weekend the Health gurus floated the idea of creating a minimum price for each unit of alcohol, thus eliminating cheap drink presently available from the supermarkets. The argument for doing this is to reduce the amount of ill health suffered and bad behavior perpetrated by those ignorant enough to over consume the demon booze.
Personally I consume virtually no alcohol so this doesn’t directly affect me, but it isn’t right for the government to use a tax to force anyone to drink less. It is not the government’s business to tell me how to live my life unless what I am doing directly and negatively affects someone else. Politicians should not, must not presume that they know what’s best for the individuals of our country.
Perhaps if the politicians were super efficient and morally and physically superior they could lead by example. But the sad truth is that they are now seen to be useless managers, inept at finance, are mean spirited, pompous and many of them are greedy and corrupt. Secretly many of them smoke, and the majority certainly doesn’t bear close physical examination.
It’s time our politicians concentrated on their jobs and left our lives to us.
Monday, March 16, 2009
NotSoSuperPower
I’m sorry, see Gordon Brown, it isn’t so hard to say those words. I am sorry not to have posted an article for a couple of days, thus breaking my own first article of electronic faith, to always be current and relevant. This is achieved by responding quickly to events.
This response is precisely what our political leaders were trying to achieve in the G20 summit rehearsal when the finance ministers got together in the UK over the last few days.
The problem for both the British and American Finance Ministers are that their voices, usually so loud and well received, are now being argued with or straight out ignored. The financial masters of the governmental universe are suddenly mere mortals. The ultimate Superpower, the USA, doesn’t know how to react to being just another country in trouble.
Larry Summers, the head of the White House’s National Economic Council informed the rest of the countries that America expected them all to agree to the stimulus package worth about 2% of their national income. He patronizingly informed them that he looked forward to their compliance during the G20 meetings in Sussex.
Summers is a man well known for his abrasiveness and he is unpopular in the other capitals which he has visits. The first to publicly voice his criticism of Summers position is the head of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker. He said that the US idea is, “not to our liking, Europe is not prepared to pile deficit on deficit.”
Perhaps more shocking is the fact that Germany and France, not so friendly lately, put aside their own scraps to combine in their rejection of American ideas.
Even Britain, normally a knee jerk ally of American plans, has become more cautious in its approach as its levels of public debt are already almost beyond measure.
More worrying still for America is that China is getting angry and impatient with America. Almost openly adopting the tone of an angry creditor the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated, “We have made a huge amount of loans to the UK. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried.” And this is the bit that should really be of concern to the once all powerful American government who he told, “to honor its words, stay a creditable nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”
Remember China already has about $1 trillion, or half, of its entire foreign currency reserves held in US government debt. Shortly China will also have almost no option but to swallow whole the vast majority of the next $1.7 trillion of American bonds that it will be selling to finance America’s spending plans.
Effectively China is now America’s paymaster every bit as much as the IMF props up some of the broken economies of the busted countries in Africa. New US Treasury Secretary Geithner didn’t understand this. During his confirmation hearings the Secretary accused the Chinese of currency manipulation as if America could do something about this. Clearly he was factually correct as the Chinese were bringing down the value of their currency to suit their own economic needs. But new realities dictate a healthy respect for America’s enlightened self-interest.
Suddenly Geithner has “got it” as he talks up the burgeoning friendship between China and America. But in real terms, China is the big butch guy and America is the coy girl about to be deflowered. All we can hope for is that both sides will enjoy their get together when it gets horizontal.
Similarly America and Europe are both renouncing their monopoly of appointment power at the IMF. All of this is a huge reality check for the new world order in which the weaknesses of American and European economies is resulting in a readjustment Eastwards of the levers of political power. Some of America’s leaders haven’t understood this message but other will, including President Obama.
No one can know the results of this tectonic shift of powers, which will become self-evident over the coming year. All we can know is that it will be a very different world.
This response is precisely what our political leaders were trying to achieve in the G20 summit rehearsal when the finance ministers got together in the UK over the last few days.
The problem for both the British and American Finance Ministers are that their voices, usually so loud and well received, are now being argued with or straight out ignored. The financial masters of the governmental universe are suddenly mere mortals. The ultimate Superpower, the USA, doesn’t know how to react to being just another country in trouble.
Larry Summers, the head of the White House’s National Economic Council informed the rest of the countries that America expected them all to agree to the stimulus package worth about 2% of their national income. He patronizingly informed them that he looked forward to their compliance during the G20 meetings in Sussex.
Summers is a man well known for his abrasiveness and he is unpopular in the other capitals which he has visits. The first to publicly voice his criticism of Summers position is the head of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker. He said that the US idea is, “not to our liking, Europe is not prepared to pile deficit on deficit.”
Perhaps more shocking is the fact that Germany and France, not so friendly lately, put aside their own scraps to combine in their rejection of American ideas.
Even Britain, normally a knee jerk ally of American plans, has become more cautious in its approach as its levels of public debt are already almost beyond measure.
More worrying still for America is that China is getting angry and impatient with America. Almost openly adopting the tone of an angry creditor the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated, “We have made a huge amount of loans to the UK. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried.” And this is the bit that should really be of concern to the once all powerful American government who he told, “to honor its words, stay a creditable nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”
Remember China already has about $1 trillion, or half, of its entire foreign currency reserves held in US government debt. Shortly China will also have almost no option but to swallow whole the vast majority of the next $1.7 trillion of American bonds that it will be selling to finance America’s spending plans.
Effectively China is now America’s paymaster every bit as much as the IMF props up some of the broken economies of the busted countries in Africa. New US Treasury Secretary Geithner didn’t understand this. During his confirmation hearings the Secretary accused the Chinese of currency manipulation as if America could do something about this. Clearly he was factually correct as the Chinese were bringing down the value of their currency to suit their own economic needs. But new realities dictate a healthy respect for America’s enlightened self-interest.
Suddenly Geithner has “got it” as he talks up the burgeoning friendship between China and America. But in real terms, China is the big butch guy and America is the coy girl about to be deflowered. All we can hope for is that both sides will enjoy their get together when it gets horizontal.
Similarly America and Europe are both renouncing their monopoly of appointment power at the IMF. All of this is a huge reality check for the new world order in which the weaknesses of American and European economies is resulting in a readjustment Eastwards of the levers of political power. Some of America’s leaders haven’t understood this message but other will, including President Obama.
No one can know the results of this tectonic shift of powers, which will become self-evident over the coming year. All we can know is that it will be a very different world.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Protectionism
It’s time for a pause for breath while we look around to see what’s really happening in the world economy. There are few reasons to be cheerful. It now seems probable that unless we all get very lucky there will be entire countries whose insolvency might result in their needing large scale, long -term economic assistance.
Principal amongst these countries are the Baltic States who are in grave danger of becoming basket cases. The drop of manufacturing in the rest of the world is hurting Russia’s reliance on its export of raw materials hugely. Even the Chinese manufacturing powerhouse is beginning to falter as demand is decimated. This slack cannot be taken up by infrastructure projects, however ambitious.
Most of Africa was, as ever, already in dire economic condition and as a peculiar quirk of the financial tragedy will probably notice the worsening situation less than the rest of the world. How does a diet of war, civil strife, corruption and starvation get worse?
The Anglo Saxon countries, previously the leaders of the laissez faire market model are very severely damaged. America and the UK are both starting to feel the first major problems of the current recession with unemployment rising fast, businesses going broke, industrial output collapsing and the bottom falling out of the property market.
It is becoming a real possibility that the UK might become a bankrupt nation if the present economic trajectory continues. Hopefully the measures being taken by the government will gather traction and succeed because there are few, if any meaningful further courses of action available to it. This year we will discover whether Prime Minister Gordon Brown is a super hero only in his own mind and it’s the IMF who has to come flying to the rescue.
One of the most worrying signs in the UK is the fact that the Quantitative Easing, effectively the last ditch printing of money to purchase gilts, which started yesterday, shows no sign of freeing up money in the banking system it was designed to achieve. The huge sums of money pledged to follow this type of route in both continents will now be filtered into the system over a period of years. There is an argument for quicker and even more drastic action. But the principal concern is whether any of the actions being taken can or will be successful. Already tried has been the central bankers first line of defense, which was to decrease the interest rates. Now these are almost sitting at or near 0% and it has yet to make any difference to the lack of lending from the banks to businesses and individuals. The banks need to be compelled by government to do this for the good of all.
If we are to fully rediscover our former prosperity we have to address fundamental problems and these are the even more intractable and relate to how our societies are structured. As a correspondent wrote to me;
“N.Y. time headline today: "Job losses hint at vast remaking of U.S. Economy" (Experts see permanent restructuring)
This is what my travelogues through the rust belt were getting at long ago when we first started corresponding. This is why I couldn't fathom the Iraq war. This country (America) is in no position to do anything but figure out how to educate itself--history would be a start for some, but science is more pressing at this point. Now that the former union people in the east will be competing in earnest with people in India, Korea and Mexico, you have to ask yourself why anyone would hire a fat, narrow-minded diabetic over someone with a real education. ..The Palin/Bush/Limbaugh stuff is symptomatic of a country that does not quite get what the labor force of the future is likely to resemble. Community colleges are suddenly swamped and there is push to re-train--o.k. but the Indians and Chinese actually have training in math, logic, poetics, English grammar--this is not something you fix with a community college. Where are the new starts that will actually create the new economy?
So...unemployment at 8.1 percent, but if you factor in those who have given up looking, it is 10 and if you factor in part timers who would like to be full-time it's 14 percent. Stay tuned.” - Brad
I am in total agreement with this view. We have lost sight of the ball and the West’s leading economies have, for a long time, foolishly misdirected our attention in an attempt at easy money, soft education and even physical sloth. Countries like India and Chine have been working harder, and are being better educated. Our leaders have been playing with winning elections whilst theirs look strategically to the future.
In the immediate future we must address our educational shortcomings more realistically and think seriously about the direction we want our societies to travel.
It’s time to consider how we make our money in the longer term as more of a priority than how much we can gain from short term fixes.
In the future will we be able to sustain prosperity by outsourcing production to the cheapest suppliers, whoever and wherever they are?
The present crisis proves that we have to plan strategically for all eventualities, even those that might seem improbable when the sun is shining. We are yet to learn any of the vital economic lessons, and are whistling in the dark as the bogeyman is stalking the shadows, still carrying his mighty axe.
The biggest threat to the entire world economic order is the distinct danger that countries and groups of countries will retire behind growing barriers of trade protection. It is this natural inclination for protectionism, which could yet send us into a full-blown Second Great Depression. It must be avoided at all costs.
Principal amongst these countries are the Baltic States who are in grave danger of becoming basket cases. The drop of manufacturing in the rest of the world is hurting Russia’s reliance on its export of raw materials hugely. Even the Chinese manufacturing powerhouse is beginning to falter as demand is decimated. This slack cannot be taken up by infrastructure projects, however ambitious.
Most of Africa was, as ever, already in dire economic condition and as a peculiar quirk of the financial tragedy will probably notice the worsening situation less than the rest of the world. How does a diet of war, civil strife, corruption and starvation get worse?
The Anglo Saxon countries, previously the leaders of the laissez faire market model are very severely damaged. America and the UK are both starting to feel the first major problems of the current recession with unemployment rising fast, businesses going broke, industrial output collapsing and the bottom falling out of the property market.
It is becoming a real possibility that the UK might become a bankrupt nation if the present economic trajectory continues. Hopefully the measures being taken by the government will gather traction and succeed because there are few, if any meaningful further courses of action available to it. This year we will discover whether Prime Minister Gordon Brown is a super hero only in his own mind and it’s the IMF who has to come flying to the rescue.
One of the most worrying signs in the UK is the fact that the Quantitative Easing, effectively the last ditch printing of money to purchase gilts, which started yesterday, shows no sign of freeing up money in the banking system it was designed to achieve. The huge sums of money pledged to follow this type of route in both continents will now be filtered into the system over a period of years. There is an argument for quicker and even more drastic action. But the principal concern is whether any of the actions being taken can or will be successful. Already tried has been the central bankers first line of defense, which was to decrease the interest rates. Now these are almost sitting at or near 0% and it has yet to make any difference to the lack of lending from the banks to businesses and individuals. The banks need to be compelled by government to do this for the good of all.
If we are to fully rediscover our former prosperity we have to address fundamental problems and these are the even more intractable and relate to how our societies are structured. As a correspondent wrote to me;
“N.Y. time headline today: "Job losses hint at vast remaking of U.S. Economy" (Experts see permanent restructuring)
This is what my travelogues through the rust belt were getting at long ago when we first started corresponding. This is why I couldn't fathom the Iraq war. This country (America) is in no position to do anything but figure out how to educate itself--history would be a start for some, but science is more pressing at this point. Now that the former union people in the east will be competing in earnest with people in India, Korea and Mexico, you have to ask yourself why anyone would hire a fat, narrow-minded diabetic over someone with a real education. ..The Palin/Bush/Limbaugh stuff is symptomatic of a country that does not quite get what the labor force of the future is likely to resemble. Community colleges are suddenly swamped and there is push to re-train--o.k. but the Indians and Chinese actually have training in math, logic, poetics, English grammar--this is not something you fix with a community college. Where are the new starts that will actually create the new economy?
So...unemployment at 8.1 percent, but if you factor in those who have given up looking, it is 10 and if you factor in part timers who would like to be full-time it's 14 percent. Stay tuned.” - Brad
I am in total agreement with this view. We have lost sight of the ball and the West’s leading economies have, for a long time, foolishly misdirected our attention in an attempt at easy money, soft education and even physical sloth. Countries like India and Chine have been working harder, and are being better educated. Our leaders have been playing with winning elections whilst theirs look strategically to the future.
In the immediate future we must address our educational shortcomings more realistically and think seriously about the direction we want our societies to travel.
It’s time to consider how we make our money in the longer term as more of a priority than how much we can gain from short term fixes.
In the future will we be able to sustain prosperity by outsourcing production to the cheapest suppliers, whoever and wherever they are?
The present crisis proves that we have to plan strategically for all eventualities, even those that might seem improbable when the sun is shining. We are yet to learn any of the vital economic lessons, and are whistling in the dark as the bogeyman is stalking the shadows, still carrying his mighty axe.
The biggest threat to the entire world economic order is the distinct danger that countries and groups of countries will retire behind growing barriers of trade protection. It is this natural inclination for protectionism, which could yet send us into a full-blown Second Great Depression. It must be avoided at all costs.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
OldFashionedValues
A few days ago a cousin telephoned to tell me that her cousin, on her dad’s side, was in town from Georgia, USA. Would I like to join them for dinner?
It was the first time I had seen John, his wife Betty and his sister Janet in nearly fifty years. Their mother was a British GI bride who had returned with her soldier husband to a farm just after the war.
Yesterday was the appointed day and we duly reconnected. They still live in a small rural town about 150 miles out of Atlanta where John teaches agricultural and forestry business and Betty teaches the Arts at the same High School,and Janet has retired..
As some of you know I have experience as a Lecturer in both Further and Higher Education in the UK and you might share my view that there are vast swathes of this part of the English academic structure that simply make no sense. One of the great curses here being that the systems are forced to change top down led by theorists rather than allowed to evolve and improve due to logic and experience. Sadly America seems to follow the same mistaken path although there the motivation might be more commercial and less ideologically driven.
But back to my extended family. I had forgotten how sweet and charming people from the backwoods of America can be. They didn’t complain about anything, they totally lacked cynicism and their attitude is totally positive and loving. They are deeply patriotic, love their country and even when they don’t support a leader as they don’t support President Obama, they sensibly wished him the strength and wisdom to complete his ambitious plans. Perhaps we could learn something from these “old fashioned” values.
Watching these country cousins sit open mouthed as they listened to the British branch of our loud, opinionated and feisty family complain about everything in Britain was a treat. They just couldn’t believe how we criticize almost everything in the UK, a country that they still enjoy and respect greatly.
One of the things that will stay with me from our brief time together was the ready smile on the faces of these genuinely good and wholesome people. We all hugged one another when it came to say our farewells and expressed the hope that we won’t be 100 years old when we next meet. After a great meal and the wonderful company of our kissing cousins I came away with a smile on my face.
It’s easy to forget that it was people like John, Janet and Betty who built America with their appreciation of family, education, tradition, law and justice. The sophisticates in the big cities, including me, should all learn something from this brief return to all our yesterdays.
It was the first time I had seen John, his wife Betty and his sister Janet in nearly fifty years. Their mother was a British GI bride who had returned with her soldier husband to a farm just after the war.
Yesterday was the appointed day and we duly reconnected. They still live in a small rural town about 150 miles out of Atlanta where John teaches agricultural and forestry business and Betty teaches the Arts at the same High School,and Janet has retired..
As some of you know I have experience as a Lecturer in both Further and Higher Education in the UK and you might share my view that there are vast swathes of this part of the English academic structure that simply make no sense. One of the great curses here being that the systems are forced to change top down led by theorists rather than allowed to evolve and improve due to logic and experience. Sadly America seems to follow the same mistaken path although there the motivation might be more commercial and less ideologically driven.
But back to my extended family. I had forgotten how sweet and charming people from the backwoods of America can be. They didn’t complain about anything, they totally lacked cynicism and their attitude is totally positive and loving. They are deeply patriotic, love their country and even when they don’t support a leader as they don’t support President Obama, they sensibly wished him the strength and wisdom to complete his ambitious plans. Perhaps we could learn something from these “old fashioned” values.
Watching these country cousins sit open mouthed as they listened to the British branch of our loud, opinionated and feisty family complain about everything in Britain was a treat. They just couldn’t believe how we criticize almost everything in the UK, a country that they still enjoy and respect greatly.
One of the things that will stay with me from our brief time together was the ready smile on the faces of these genuinely good and wholesome people. We all hugged one another when it came to say our farewells and expressed the hope that we won’t be 100 years old when we next meet. After a great meal and the wonderful company of our kissing cousins I came away with a smile on my face.
It’s easy to forget that it was people like John, Janet and Betty who built America with their appreciation of family, education, tradition, law and justice. The sophisticates in the big cities, including me, should all learn something from this brief return to all our yesterdays.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
BloodyIreland
Just when you began to think there was one intractable problem in the world that could be solved by diplomacy along comes another murdering bunch of bastards to prove you wrong.
Over the last few months there have been authorative voices raising concerns over security in Northern Ireland. Principal amongst these was the Police Chief, Sir Hugh Orde, who repeatedly stated that there were serious terrorist plans to kill and maim at an advanced stage of preparation. Even more recently elements of the British military infiltration and observation teams who work closely with the SAS were put into Northern Ireland.
But it was too little too late. A couple of days ago two soldiers, unarmed, about to eat a pizza before going to serve with the army in Afghanistan were gunned down in cold blood. Yesterday, in case we didn’t get the point a long serving police officer was summoned by a call from a woman in distress only to be ambushed and shot dead. The murderous bastards are back. After a decade of relative quiet purchased at the price of common sense and peace at any price.
The leaders of Sinn Fein, who, we mustn’t forget were and are the leaders of the Provisional IRA, weep crocodile tears over these losses. The fact is that the recent killers are from the Real IRA and are a dissident Republican group who don’t accept the peace process.
It would be an error to over react to the bloody outrages, but on the other hand our government must act decisively against the growing threat. The way to do this is to pressurize the leaders of Sinn Fein to provide their intelligence information about the perpetrators. Without doubt the Republican community knows exactly who committed these crimes and where they are. If Sinn Fein wants to cloak itself in false respectability and suck at the teat of the munificent British public purse this is the price and it must be levied now.
This is not yet a return to the “Troubles” of the past, but it is very easy to imagine the situation quickly spiraling downwards and out of control unless firm and sensible counter actions are taken.
If these crimes are allowed to stand larger scale attacks would be an inevitable consequence. That would be enough to suck a new generation of hard men from all sides back on the streets.
These sickening crimes have to be dealt with quickly and visibly. The culprits must be brought to justice and all measures to achieve this end must be employed, NOW!
Over the last few months there have been authorative voices raising concerns over security in Northern Ireland. Principal amongst these was the Police Chief, Sir Hugh Orde, who repeatedly stated that there were serious terrorist plans to kill and maim at an advanced stage of preparation. Even more recently elements of the British military infiltration and observation teams who work closely with the SAS were put into Northern Ireland.
But it was too little too late. A couple of days ago two soldiers, unarmed, about to eat a pizza before going to serve with the army in Afghanistan were gunned down in cold blood. Yesterday, in case we didn’t get the point a long serving police officer was summoned by a call from a woman in distress only to be ambushed and shot dead. The murderous bastards are back. After a decade of relative quiet purchased at the price of common sense and peace at any price.
The leaders of Sinn Fein, who, we mustn’t forget were and are the leaders of the Provisional IRA, weep crocodile tears over these losses. The fact is that the recent killers are from the Real IRA and are a dissident Republican group who don’t accept the peace process.
It would be an error to over react to the bloody outrages, but on the other hand our government must act decisively against the growing threat. The way to do this is to pressurize the leaders of Sinn Fein to provide their intelligence information about the perpetrators. Without doubt the Republican community knows exactly who committed these crimes and where they are. If Sinn Fein wants to cloak itself in false respectability and suck at the teat of the munificent British public purse this is the price and it must be levied now.
This is not yet a return to the “Troubles” of the past, but it is very easy to imagine the situation quickly spiraling downwards and out of control unless firm and sensible counter actions are taken.
If these crimes are allowed to stand larger scale attacks would be an inevitable consequence. That would be enough to suck a new generation of hard men from all sides back on the streets.
These sickening crimes have to be dealt with quickly and visibly. The culprits must be brought to justice and all measures to achieve this end must be employed, NOW!
Monday, March 9, 2009
GoodbyeGreg
I have just returned from a very moving Tribute to the life of Greg Smith a film and theatrical Producer of some note who passed away last week. I had an intermittent but nevertheless intimate relationship with Greg.
Greg had a tough time growing up having lost much of his family before he was a teenager. He always kept this part of his life private and clearly found it a bit of a difficult subject. On leaving drama school in London at the age of 15, Greg joined the Argyle Theatre Touring Company and then took a job as a runner to impresario, Bernard, later Lord Delfont, where he learned the craft of being an agent.
I met Greg when he produced the documentaries,” Brendan Behan's Dublin" and “The London Nobody Knows”, which were both directed by his client and friend Norman Cohen with my late father’s film company where I was working during my school holidays as a very junior editor. Greg had also set up a small talent agency that represented a respectable client list of producers, directors and writers, amongst whom I was later to be a minor and very difficult client.
I wrote the outline for a novel and when I was about 18 Greg negotiated an offer for me to write the book for a publisher for a very healthy advance. Being a stupid and obstinate teenager I turned down the offer. Now I realize what a miracle worker Greg must have been and how disappointed he must have been at my reaction.
Greg and Norman made the film of the BBC TV series "Dad's Army" for Columbia Pictures and filmed Spike Milligan’s novel “Adolf Hitler - My Part in His Downfall” for United Artists, which quickly followed.
A short time later my father asked me to read a book whilst I was on a train journey to the North of England. Later dad asked me what I thought, I said it was very funny and asked him what his interest was in the book. He said he was going to make it into a film and asked me to work on it as the line producer with our old friend Greg Smith. Once again being a very silly young man I turned down the invitation saying I wouldn’t touch such raunchy material with a barge pole. Hence was born the "Confessions …." Series being produced by Greg and executive produced by my father.
The first of these was released in 1974, and it was the amazingly successful "Confessions of a Window Cleaner" which grossed a higher sum per dollar spent than any other Columbia film in the non-US markets and gained entry into the Guinness Film Book of Records. This proves conclusively that no one knows nothing, especially yours truly. Well perhaps Greg and Michael Klinger knew a great deal more than me!
Greg then produced "The Thirty Nine Steps" (starring Robert Powell, John Mills and David Warner) from Buchan's original book rather than as a remake of the famous Hitchcock version.
In 1979 Greg moved into television with the series "Tropic of Ruislip", followed by the TV movie "The Shillingbury Blowers" starring Trevor Howard and leading to the popular series "Shillingbury Tales" in 1981/82; then another Leslie Thomas creation "Dangerous Davies - The Last Detective".
In the early '80s Greg also produced the movies "Funny Money" and "The Boys in Blue" and the TV series "Cuffy” plus a 12 x 1 hour series for Euston Films "Prospects" (1984/85), and two series of the sitcom
"Rude Health".
"Great Expectations" followed in 1988/89, a mini-series (starring Anthony Hopkins, Jean Simmons, Ray McAnally and John Rhys Davies) that received two ACE awards and four EMMY nominations.
Perhaps the single most successful venture of Greg’s productive life came when he co-produced "Buddy - The Buddy Holly Story" , with Laurie Mansfield and Paul Elliott. The stage production proved a major hit World Wide. “Buddy” has been nominated for many international awards including two English Laurence Olivier Awards, one US Tony Award and six Canadian Dora Mavor Moore Awards.
During 1987 to '89, Greg chaired the British Cannes Action Committee and the British Pavilion at the Cannes Film Festival. In 1989-90, Greg produced Trevor Nunn's highly acclaimed "Othello" (starring Sir Ian McKellan and Willard White), which received two BAFTA nominations and in 1992 Trevor and Greg joined forces again to make the world television production of Gershwin's operatic masterpiece "Porgy and Bess".
Following the production of "The Old Curiosity Shop" as a mini-series starring Sir Peter Ustinov, Tom Courtney, Greg and Trevor Nunn formed Circus Films Limited, which, in 1995/96 produced, "Twelfth Night".
Laurie Mansfield, Paul Elliott and Greg then brought "Jolson" to London with Brian Conley playing the title role. The show was awarded the Laurence Olivier Award of "Best Musical 1996". In the spring of 1996, Greg produced Neil Simon's "London Suite".
In 1998-99 Greg, as Producer filmed George Orwell's "Animal Farm" in Ireland - and within weeks of the completion of this shoot - "David Copperfield", shot in Dublin, with Greg as Co-Producer.
During this period, he and Laurie Mansfield also Co-Produced "Agnes Brown" with Jim Sheridan and Morgan O'Sullivan. In the London theatre, Greg and Laurie Mansfield, with Chris Davis, Chris Marino and Effective Productions, brought "Animal Crackers", the Marx Brothers' comedy classic to the West End for a limited tour. In July 1999, Greg, Laurie Mansfield, Jim Davidson and Robin Clark launched "Great Balls of Fire", the Jerry Lee Lewis story,
A couple of years ago Greg and I spent some time discussing the idea of his studying American history at university as I had, by then, spent quite a lot of time in academia. I loved his enthusiasm as the ideas streamed off him but time and circumstances didn’t allow this opportunity to flower.
The last time we talked we were exploring the idea of putting on our moon boots to make a film together that my late father had developed many years previously. But ill health handled with the utmost discretion by Greg was one hurdle he was unable to overcome, it was not to be.
When I had need of some friendship, advice and a guiding hand I asked and Greg was there for me and there was no embarrassment. I hope that I have been as good with others when it has been my turn to pass along some of my good fortune. Greg felt he had a “fabulous” life doing all the things he wanted and not many of us can say that.
At the service celebrating the life of Greg there were sincere, funny and touching contributions from John Clive, Robin Askwith, Seamus Smith and the writer Leslie Thomas. Greg would have thought the whole thing was “Nonsense!” but we know better.
Sue Hayworth, Greg’s charming and accomplished assistant for many years finished the ceremony with this very appropriate poetry reading;
You can shed tears that he is gone,
Or you can smile because he lived,
You can close your eyes and pray that he will come back,
Or you can open your eyes and see all that he has left.
Your heart can be empty because you can’t see him
Or you can be full of the love that you shared,
You can turn your back on tomorrow and live yesterday,
Or you can be happy for tomorrow because of yesterday.
You can remember him and only that he is gone
Or you can cherish his memory and let it live on,
You can cry and close your mind be empty and turn your back,
Or you can do what he would want: smile, open your eyes,
love and go on.
Sue then smiled and added “he was a good boss” to which I would like to add, “he was a good man.”
To the family of Greg, his widow Gloria Thomas Smith and Officer-Cadet Jamie Thomas, his step-son I wanted to convey our fondest wishes and condolences as we say goodbye to Greg, from all your friends.
Greg had a tough time growing up having lost much of his family before he was a teenager. He always kept this part of his life private and clearly found it a bit of a difficult subject. On leaving drama school in London at the age of 15, Greg joined the Argyle Theatre Touring Company and then took a job as a runner to impresario, Bernard, later Lord Delfont, where he learned the craft of being an agent.
I met Greg when he produced the documentaries,” Brendan Behan's Dublin" and “The London Nobody Knows”, which were both directed by his client and friend Norman Cohen with my late father’s film company where I was working during my school holidays as a very junior editor. Greg had also set up a small talent agency that represented a respectable client list of producers, directors and writers, amongst whom I was later to be a minor and very difficult client.
I wrote the outline for a novel and when I was about 18 Greg negotiated an offer for me to write the book for a publisher for a very healthy advance. Being a stupid and obstinate teenager I turned down the offer. Now I realize what a miracle worker Greg must have been and how disappointed he must have been at my reaction.
Greg and Norman made the film of the BBC TV series "Dad's Army" for Columbia Pictures and filmed Spike Milligan’s novel “Adolf Hitler - My Part in His Downfall” for United Artists, which quickly followed.
A short time later my father asked me to read a book whilst I was on a train journey to the North of England. Later dad asked me what I thought, I said it was very funny and asked him what his interest was in the book. He said he was going to make it into a film and asked me to work on it as the line producer with our old friend Greg Smith. Once again being a very silly young man I turned down the invitation saying I wouldn’t touch such raunchy material with a barge pole. Hence was born the "Confessions …." Series being produced by Greg and executive produced by my father.
The first of these was released in 1974, and it was the amazingly successful "Confessions of a Window Cleaner" which grossed a higher sum per dollar spent than any other Columbia film in the non-US markets and gained entry into the Guinness Film Book of Records. This proves conclusively that no one knows nothing, especially yours truly. Well perhaps Greg and Michael Klinger knew a great deal more than me!
Greg then produced "The Thirty Nine Steps" (starring Robert Powell, John Mills and David Warner) from Buchan's original book rather than as a remake of the famous Hitchcock version.
In 1979 Greg moved into television with the series "Tropic of Ruislip", followed by the TV movie "The Shillingbury Blowers" starring Trevor Howard and leading to the popular series "Shillingbury Tales" in 1981/82; then another Leslie Thomas creation "Dangerous Davies - The Last Detective".
In the early '80s Greg also produced the movies "Funny Money" and "The Boys in Blue" and the TV series "Cuffy” plus a 12 x 1 hour series for Euston Films "Prospects" (1984/85), and two series of the sitcom
"Rude Health".
"Great Expectations" followed in 1988/89, a mini-series (starring Anthony Hopkins, Jean Simmons, Ray McAnally and John Rhys Davies) that received two ACE awards and four EMMY nominations.
Perhaps the single most successful venture of Greg’s productive life came when he co-produced "Buddy - The Buddy Holly Story" , with Laurie Mansfield and Paul Elliott. The stage production proved a major hit World Wide. “Buddy” has been nominated for many international awards including two English Laurence Olivier Awards, one US Tony Award and six Canadian Dora Mavor Moore Awards.
During 1987 to '89, Greg chaired the British Cannes Action Committee and the British Pavilion at the Cannes Film Festival. In 1989-90, Greg produced Trevor Nunn's highly acclaimed "Othello" (starring Sir Ian McKellan and Willard White), which received two BAFTA nominations and in 1992 Trevor and Greg joined forces again to make the world television production of Gershwin's operatic masterpiece "Porgy and Bess".
Following the production of "The Old Curiosity Shop" as a mini-series starring Sir Peter Ustinov, Tom Courtney, Greg and Trevor Nunn formed Circus Films Limited, which, in 1995/96 produced, "Twelfth Night".
Laurie Mansfield, Paul Elliott and Greg then brought "Jolson" to London with Brian Conley playing the title role. The show was awarded the Laurence Olivier Award of "Best Musical 1996". In the spring of 1996, Greg produced Neil Simon's "London Suite".
In 1998-99 Greg, as Producer filmed George Orwell's "Animal Farm" in Ireland - and within weeks of the completion of this shoot - "David Copperfield", shot in Dublin, with Greg as Co-Producer.
During this period, he and Laurie Mansfield also Co-Produced "Agnes Brown" with Jim Sheridan and Morgan O'Sullivan. In the London theatre, Greg and Laurie Mansfield, with Chris Davis, Chris Marino and Effective Productions, brought "Animal Crackers", the Marx Brothers' comedy classic to the West End for a limited tour. In July 1999, Greg, Laurie Mansfield, Jim Davidson and Robin Clark launched "Great Balls of Fire", the Jerry Lee Lewis story,
A couple of years ago Greg and I spent some time discussing the idea of his studying American history at university as I had, by then, spent quite a lot of time in academia. I loved his enthusiasm as the ideas streamed off him but time and circumstances didn’t allow this opportunity to flower.
The last time we talked we were exploring the idea of putting on our moon boots to make a film together that my late father had developed many years previously. But ill health handled with the utmost discretion by Greg was one hurdle he was unable to overcome, it was not to be.
When I had need of some friendship, advice and a guiding hand I asked and Greg was there for me and there was no embarrassment. I hope that I have been as good with others when it has been my turn to pass along some of my good fortune. Greg felt he had a “fabulous” life doing all the things he wanted and not many of us can say that.
At the service celebrating the life of Greg there were sincere, funny and touching contributions from John Clive, Robin Askwith, Seamus Smith and the writer Leslie Thomas. Greg would have thought the whole thing was “Nonsense!” but we know better.
Sue Hayworth, Greg’s charming and accomplished assistant for many years finished the ceremony with this very appropriate poetry reading;
You can shed tears that he is gone,
Or you can smile because he lived,
You can close your eyes and pray that he will come back,
Or you can open your eyes and see all that he has left.
Your heart can be empty because you can’t see him
Or you can be full of the love that you shared,
You can turn your back on tomorrow and live yesterday,
Or you can be happy for tomorrow because of yesterday.
You can remember him and only that he is gone
Or you can cherish his memory and let it live on,
You can cry and close your mind be empty and turn your back,
Or you can do what he would want: smile, open your eyes,
love and go on.
Sue then smiled and added “he was a good boss” to which I would like to add, “he was a good man.”
To the family of Greg, his widow Gloria Thomas Smith and Officer-Cadet Jamie Thomas, his step-son I wanted to convey our fondest wishes and condolences as we say goodbye to Greg, from all your friends.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Thank you so much for the comments you send me. Please feel free to post your comments directly onto the appropriate part of the site but in the meantime I thought you might enjoy some of the more recent thoughts, observations and exchanges.
Tony:
Headline in U.S.A. Today: Mortgage Collapse Started in Few Areas. They
have a map that says it all--and there are other stories out now on radio
and TV. picking up the thread. When you really crunch it, it was the
housing developments I pointed out in Southern California, central valley,
and in particular, Pahrump/Las Vegas that triggered the collapse. This
Paper was used to leverage on Wall St. Saw this years ago and told my dad to sell his Palm Springs crib--everyone saw this coming. ...The larger
consequences for the economy were sounded clearly by Paul Krugman and others.
On the national scene, half of the foreclosures are in only 35
Counties--the majority in California, Nevada.
Increasingly, it seems possible to pin this whole thing on hookers in
Pahrump who became real estate agents.
Brad.
Brad
I don't know if you're right but I love the idea of the hookers f…ing the
World rather than the other way around.
Tony
The following was addressed to me about my articles regarding the fast disappearing economy;
Another good one and so true. Slowly emerge step by step out of the madness and the chaos. I love your blogs....
Stevie
My article about “Family” provoked the following observations. I was especially moved by the wonderful and warm loving reactions of many members of my own family. I took the decision not to print their remarks since some stuff should remain personal. Suffice it to say I am proud of them and proud to share their love, which is entirely mutual.
I loved this blog.
I am going to send it to work colleagues and family!
Roz
That was really heartfelt and lovely, Tony
Marjorie
Bravo!!! Many more!
Neville
Tony:
Headline in U.S.A. Today: Mortgage Collapse Started in Few Areas. They
have a map that says it all--and there are other stories out now on radio
and TV. picking up the thread. When you really crunch it, it was the
housing developments I pointed out in Southern California, central valley,
and in particular, Pahrump/Las Vegas that triggered the collapse. This
Paper was used to leverage on Wall St. Saw this years ago and told my dad to sell his Palm Springs crib--everyone saw this coming. ...The larger
consequences for the economy were sounded clearly by Paul Krugman and others.
On the national scene, half of the foreclosures are in only 35
Counties--the majority in California, Nevada.
Increasingly, it seems possible to pin this whole thing on hookers in
Pahrump who became real estate agents.
Brad.
Brad
I don't know if you're right but I love the idea of the hookers f…ing the
World rather than the other way around.
Tony
The following was addressed to me about my articles regarding the fast disappearing economy;
Another good one and so true. Slowly emerge step by step out of the madness and the chaos. I love your blogs....
Stevie
My article about “Family” provoked the following observations. I was especially moved by the wonderful and warm loving reactions of many members of my own family. I took the decision not to print their remarks since some stuff should remain personal. Suffice it to say I am proud of them and proud to share their love, which is entirely mutual.
I loved this blog.
I am going to send it to work colleagues and family!
Roz
That was really heartfelt and lovely, Tony
Marjorie
Bravo!!! Many more!
Neville
Observations
Thank you so much for the comments you send me. Please feel free to post your comments directly onto the appropriate part of the site but in the meantime I thought you might enjoy some of the more recent thoughts, observations and exchanges.
Tony:
Headline in U.S.A. Today: Mortgage Collapse Started in Few Areas. They
have a map that says it all--and there are other stories out now on radio
and TV. picking up the thread. When you really crunch it, it was the
housing developments I pointed out in Southern California, central valley,
and in particular, Pahrump/Las Vegas that triggered the collapse. This
Paper was used to leverage on Wall St. Saw this years ago and told my dad to sell his Palm Springs crib--everyone saw this coming. ...The larger
consequences for the economy were sounded clearly by Paul Krugman and others.
On the national scene, half of the foreclosures are in only 35
Counties--the majority in California, Nevada.
Increasingly, it seems possible to pin this whole thing on hookers in
Pahrump who became real estate agents.
Brad.
Brad
I don't know if you're right but I love the idea of the hookers f…ing the
World rather than the other way around.
Tony
The following was addressed to me about my articles regarding the fast disappearing economy;
Another good one and so true. Slowly emerge step by step out of the madness and the chaos. I love your blogs....
Stevie
My article about “Family” provoked the following observations. I was especially moved by the wonderful and warm loving reactions of many members of my own family. I took the decision not to print their remarks since some stuff should remain personal. Suffice it to say I am proud of them and proud to share their love, which is entirely mutual.
I loved this blog.
I am going to send it to work colleagues and family!
Roz
That was really heartfelt and lovely, Tony
Marjorie
Bravo!!! Many more!
Neville
Tony:
Headline in U.S.A. Today: Mortgage Collapse Started in Few Areas. They
have a map that says it all--and there are other stories out now on radio
and TV. picking up the thread. When you really crunch it, it was the
housing developments I pointed out in Southern California, central valley,
and in particular, Pahrump/Las Vegas that triggered the collapse. This
Paper was used to leverage on Wall St. Saw this years ago and told my dad to sell his Palm Springs crib--everyone saw this coming. ...The larger
consequences for the economy were sounded clearly by Paul Krugman and others.
On the national scene, half of the foreclosures are in only 35
Counties--the majority in California, Nevada.
Increasingly, it seems possible to pin this whole thing on hookers in
Pahrump who became real estate agents.
Brad.
Brad
I don't know if you're right but I love the idea of the hookers f…ing the
World rather than the other way around.
Tony
The following was addressed to me about my articles regarding the fast disappearing economy;
Another good one and so true. Slowly emerge step by step out of the madness and the chaos. I love your blogs....
Stevie
My article about “Family” provoked the following observations. I was especially moved by the wonderful and warm loving reactions of many members of my own family. I took the decision not to print their remarks since some stuff should remain personal. Suffice it to say I am proud of them and proud to share their love, which is entirely mutual.
I loved this blog.
I am going to send it to work colleagues and family!
Roz
That was really heartfelt and lovely, Tony
Marjorie
Bravo!!! Many more!
Neville
Friday, March 6, 2009
PLANESTUPID
In the UK today we were cursed with a series of acts that were plane stupid.
Outside a London "low carbon" conference at breakfast time a protestor threw a container of green custard in the face of British Government Business Secretary, Lord Mandelson.
She was later discovered to be Leila Dean and she was protesting about the proposed third airport runway at London's Heathrow airport. That additional runway is long overdue and despite the Government's support is still many years and endless hearings, protests and legal hurdles away from completion.
"While I'm prepared to take my fair share of the green revolution on my shoulders, I'm less keen on it in my face," he said after the scare.
"When democracy is failing you have to resort to any means necessary as long as it is peaceful and does not harm other human beings," she said.
"Peter Mandelson is the same person who effectively bullied Ed Miliband and other members of the Cabinet to accept a third runway that nobody wants, a third runway that no one was consulted on and no one is able to say no to.
"It's not right that someone like Peter Mandelson can stand up and talk about being green."
Speaking later where the incident took place Lord Mandelson said: "I don't think anyone should overreact. Ifs there's a security issue it's for the police and others.
"In a democracy people can have their say but I'd rather people said it to my face rather than throw it at my face."
The young woman who threw the custard is a serial protest veteran who comes from a campaign group called PLANE STUPID, which tells you everything you need to know for they do indeed live up to their name.
At the conference the Prime Minister made jokes about the attack as if the whole thing were just a bit of whimsy. I think he was attempting to whistle in the dark, to demonstrate the British bulldog spirit; but all he succeeded in demonstrating was complacency and stupidity.
British politicians have a naive belief that democracy allows them to be complacent and cavalier about their personal security when all the evidence indicates that they should be aware of the potential of threats from many quarters. Imagine if the woman had acid in her container or had decided to kidnap a Minister. Our security apparatus must heed this stark warnings before someone is killed. If we don't protect ourselves and our leaders we are all just PLANE STUPID.
Outside a London "low carbon" conference at breakfast time a protestor threw a container of green custard in the face of British Government Business Secretary, Lord Mandelson.
She was later discovered to be Leila Dean and she was protesting about the proposed third airport runway at London's Heathrow airport. That additional runway is long overdue and despite the Government's support is still many years and endless hearings, protests and legal hurdles away from completion.
"While I'm prepared to take my fair share of the green revolution on my shoulders, I'm less keen on it in my face," he said after the scare.
"When democracy is failing you have to resort to any means necessary as long as it is peaceful and does not harm other human beings," she said.
"Peter Mandelson is the same person who effectively bullied Ed Miliband and other members of the Cabinet to accept a third runway that nobody wants, a third runway that no one was consulted on and no one is able to say no to.
"It's not right that someone like Peter Mandelson can stand up and talk about being green."
Speaking later where the incident took place Lord Mandelson said: "I don't think anyone should overreact. Ifs there's a security issue it's for the police and others.
"In a democracy people can have their say but I'd rather people said it to my face rather than throw it at my face."
The young woman who threw the custard is a serial protest veteran who comes from a campaign group called PLANE STUPID, which tells you everything you need to know for they do indeed live up to their name.
At the conference the Prime Minister made jokes about the attack as if the whole thing were just a bit of whimsy. I think he was attempting to whistle in the dark, to demonstrate the British bulldog spirit; but all he succeeded in demonstrating was complacency and stupidity.
British politicians have a naive belief that democracy allows them to be complacent and cavalier about their personal security when all the evidence indicates that they should be aware of the potential of threats from many quarters. Imagine if the woman had acid in her container or had decided to kidnap a Minister. Our security apparatus must heed this stark warnings before someone is killed. If we don't protect ourselves and our leaders we are all just PLANE STUPID.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
BeingQuantitativelyEased
Being Quantitatively Eased sounds like something someone might do with a plunger for a very high colonic. Perhaps that is precisely what is happening to us in the British body economic?
Today the Bank of England announced that they are undertaking their first steps into the world of quantitative easing. OK, let’s put it another way that we can all understand, they have decided to print and put through the system an initial additional £75,000,000,000 and if that goes as they would like they will follow this with another £75,000,000,000 put that total into dollars and you are talking about printing $210,000,000 Well, like the nurse would say, “that should clear madam’s system nicely!”
I have taken to using the zeros so that we can truly grasp the size of these amounts of money being pumped into our economic systems. The reason for this money “printing” exercise is to allow the government to buy such things as corporate bonds from blue chip companies and possibly some toxic bank debts. As Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman said, “Quantitative easing is a dangerous game as it can quickly cause inflation. However, extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.”
The sad and frightening truth is that none of us knows how this will work out. If the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee had done nothing today as we drift ever closer to another huge economic depression led by deflation they would stand forever accused of not acting decisively when they should have known better. Today we see the result, since at the same time as announcing this very substantial measure they also reduced the rate of interest down to the historic low of 0.5%. It has never been at this level in our economic history and remember it was only six months ago that the rate of interest was hovering along, seemingly set at 5% for the longer term.
I’ve heard descriptions of the months following the declaration of war by Britain against Germany in 1939. At first nothing much seemed to happen, and then all hell broke loose. Something similar is happening now; we all know that the flood waters of this huge recession is coming ever closer to the sandbags we have tried to build around our homes and businesses but we know that anything we do might not be enough. We see governments and central bankers who clearly don’t know more than us about how to rescue this situation and naturally we are terrified.
I am also an occasional academic and I use this analogy when dealing with students facing a potentially very difficult examination. Don’t see what’s coming at you as a tidal wave from which the only salvation is to grab hold of something in the hope that the water will wash over you and there’s a chance you’ll have survived the flood. It is much better to see the challenge ahead as a mountain trail you have to climb. Make sure you prepare as well as you can and then start taking short strides, one at a time, and you will not only survive but you can reach the summit.
The people that will get through this economic disaster will either be lucky enough to already have a steady job, which they can hold onto or they will be the kind of people who are ready to plan, adapt and plan again.
The one thing that is for sure now is that nothing will be for sure again for the foreseeable future. Be prepared to wake up to shocking news and still move forward. There has never been a situation like this one and there are no means to measure what will happen next. The best-case scenario is that the measures being adopted by our leaders will work quickly and effectively and the banks will unglue the lending pipes and this will happen without releasing us into a gigantic inflationary cycle. That would be a case of the medicine being worse than the potential of the deflationary disease.
The only country where anything similar did happen was Japan in the early to middle 1990’s and that country still hasn’t moved forward from its “stagflation” problems, despite having record exports and huge balance of payments surpluses. Our situation is immeasurably worse, but we, as individuals have to hope that our leaders are a whole lot brighter now than they were when they allowed this situation to develop.
It would be unwise and hopelessly optimistic to forget that Obama and Brown said nothing negative during the last decade about the banks and the regulators when everything seemed perfect and prosperous in our seemingly robust economies. Pointing their collective finger at others now does not distract me from reminding them of their own silence then.
As for you and I, let’s get our warm clothes and hiking boots on, we have a long way to climb out of this mess!
Today the Bank of England announced that they are undertaking their first steps into the world of quantitative easing. OK, let’s put it another way that we can all understand, they have decided to print and put through the system an initial additional £75,000,000,000 and if that goes as they would like they will follow this with another £75,000,000,000 put that total into dollars and you are talking about printing $210,000,000 Well, like the nurse would say, “that should clear madam’s system nicely!”
I have taken to using the zeros so that we can truly grasp the size of these amounts of money being pumped into our economic systems. The reason for this money “printing” exercise is to allow the government to buy such things as corporate bonds from blue chip companies and possibly some toxic bank debts. As Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman said, “Quantitative easing is a dangerous game as it can quickly cause inflation. However, extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.”
The sad and frightening truth is that none of us knows how this will work out. If the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee had done nothing today as we drift ever closer to another huge economic depression led by deflation they would stand forever accused of not acting decisively when they should have known better. Today we see the result, since at the same time as announcing this very substantial measure they also reduced the rate of interest down to the historic low of 0.5%. It has never been at this level in our economic history and remember it was only six months ago that the rate of interest was hovering along, seemingly set at 5% for the longer term.
I’ve heard descriptions of the months following the declaration of war by Britain against Germany in 1939. At first nothing much seemed to happen, and then all hell broke loose. Something similar is happening now; we all know that the flood waters of this huge recession is coming ever closer to the sandbags we have tried to build around our homes and businesses but we know that anything we do might not be enough. We see governments and central bankers who clearly don’t know more than us about how to rescue this situation and naturally we are terrified.
I am also an occasional academic and I use this analogy when dealing with students facing a potentially very difficult examination. Don’t see what’s coming at you as a tidal wave from which the only salvation is to grab hold of something in the hope that the water will wash over you and there’s a chance you’ll have survived the flood. It is much better to see the challenge ahead as a mountain trail you have to climb. Make sure you prepare as well as you can and then start taking short strides, one at a time, and you will not only survive but you can reach the summit.
The people that will get through this economic disaster will either be lucky enough to already have a steady job, which they can hold onto or they will be the kind of people who are ready to plan, adapt and plan again.
The one thing that is for sure now is that nothing will be for sure again for the foreseeable future. Be prepared to wake up to shocking news and still move forward. There has never been a situation like this one and there are no means to measure what will happen next. The best-case scenario is that the measures being adopted by our leaders will work quickly and effectively and the banks will unglue the lending pipes and this will happen without releasing us into a gigantic inflationary cycle. That would be a case of the medicine being worse than the potential of the deflationary disease.
The only country where anything similar did happen was Japan in the early to middle 1990’s and that country still hasn’t moved forward from its “stagflation” problems, despite having record exports and huge balance of payments surpluses. Our situation is immeasurably worse, but we, as individuals have to hope that our leaders are a whole lot brighter now than they were when they allowed this situation to develop.
It would be unwise and hopelessly optimistic to forget that Obama and Brown said nothing negative during the last decade about the banks and the regulators when everything seemed perfect and prosperous in our seemingly robust economies. Pointing their collective finger at others now does not distract me from reminding them of their own silence then.
As for you and I, let’s get our warm clothes and hiking boots on, we have a long way to climb out of this mess!
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
TheAfPakThreat
With all of the awful issues confronting our leaders it is not the huge economic mess that we’re in that is their biggest problem. In the same week that President Obama met Prime Minister Brown we saw the awful news pictures of the Sri Lankan cricket team being attacked by terrorists in Lahore, Pakistan on their way to play sport.
Masked men opened fire, killing six policemen escorting the Sri Lankans and a driver. In addition seven players and an assistant coach were wounded.
The team later flew back to Sri Lanka. There is no word on the identities or motives of the gunmen, who melted into the city and escaped.
Pakistani officials stated that the incident bore close similarities to deadly attacks in Mumbai in India last November.
This is another of those all too familiar attacks that we see, sigh then shake our heads. We have become totally anaesthetized about the sheer horror of such events. A bombing in a restaurant in Tel Aviv, a bus in London, a shooting in Mumbai, jets being flown into skyscrapers in New York, carnage in Malaysia, a Jewish community centre in Argentina being bombed, trains and hundreds of Spanish commuters in Madrid blown apart or thousands of other cowardly assaults on innocent civilians anywhere in the world.
What do all of these terrible attacks have in common? Militant Islamic terrorists conduct them all. Whatever name they use, the Taliban, Al Quada, Hamas, Hezbollah or a thousand other little known similar organizations, they are all the same and their aim is our destruction.
Whether you’re Nick Berg in Iraq or Daniel Pearl in Pakistan it doesn’t much matter what label your Islamic terrorist has when he is hacking your head from your body.
The current and recent attacks on the Indian sub-continent are especially worrying for a series of reasons that are both inescapable and very scary. It is clear that the insidious and evil reach of the Taliban has infected more than the lawless borderlands running between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In fact the Pakistani government recently allowed its own Swat valley to become Taliban territory although it is nominally still part of their country.
The Swat valley is an administrative district in the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan located about 100 miles from Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. This once princely state with its high mountains, green meadows, and clear lakes, was once popular with tourists as "the Switzerland of Pakistan". In December last year most of the area was captured by the Taliban insurgency and Islamist militant leader Maulana Fazlullah and his group Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi that have banned education for girls and bombed or burnt more hundreds of schools for girls and many other government-owned buildings.
The result is that there will be no education for the girls of that benighted place. The Taliban in Afghanistan continue to attack girls who still dare to go to school and recently threw acid in the faces of many of the girls who dared to want to be educated.
I have never understood the loony left wing liberals who espouse furiously against anyone they dislike but who think its cool and fun to wear T-shirts that say, “We are all Hamas now!” Now the Taliban are killing and maiming the women of their own nation where are the left wing protests against these acts of barbarism?
Instead we are urged to understand the plight of the various Islamist populations and their motivation for hating and killing us or anyone else that they take a dislike to. Personally I don’t think the world is helped by this attitude. The vast majority of Muslims in the world hate these terrorists as much as anyone else. But they must make this known not only by their words but also by their actions.
The current and festering danger is that the entire region of Afghanistan and Pakistan is being terminally destabilized and this will continue and escalate unless and until there is a clear strategy to combat and contain this menace emanating principally from the USA and supported by the EU, China and Russia. The reason for this being so vital is obvious, Pakistan is a nuclear state and there can be no more terrifying image than a Pakistan run by the Taliban having at their disposal weapons of mass destruction. The rest of the world is severely threatened as this situation degenerates.
There are many sweetheart deals being done by various nation states to placate or mollify the growing terrorist menace I describe. There is no question that the aim is to “buy” a quiet life in the forlorn hope that their turn to be beheaded will never arrive.
This is not far fetched and cannot be allowed. There must not be any more bending of the knee to the world wide terrorist threat. You do not achieve peace by appeasement you achieve defeat.
We are fighting with one hand tied behind our back in Afghanistan whilst most of our allies with the noble exception of the Americans do little or no real fighting at all. This cannot continue. It is time we burned the poppy fields and attacked the Taliban where they live and where they hide, on the borders of Pakistan. If we have to pursue terrorists across borders we have to do so. There can be no safe havens for our deadly enemies.
Such Islamic holy warriors publicly state that their idea of compromise is the world’s surrender to an Islamic caliphate; failing which they want us dead. We must not allow such lunatics the levers of ultimate power and weapons of mass destruction. We must widen the fight against the terrorists now, while we are much stronger than they are, or we will live to regret our hesitation.
Masked men opened fire, killing six policemen escorting the Sri Lankans and a driver. In addition seven players and an assistant coach were wounded.
The team later flew back to Sri Lanka. There is no word on the identities or motives of the gunmen, who melted into the city and escaped.
Pakistani officials stated that the incident bore close similarities to deadly attacks in Mumbai in India last November.
This is another of those all too familiar attacks that we see, sigh then shake our heads. We have become totally anaesthetized about the sheer horror of such events. A bombing in a restaurant in Tel Aviv, a bus in London, a shooting in Mumbai, jets being flown into skyscrapers in New York, carnage in Malaysia, a Jewish community centre in Argentina being bombed, trains and hundreds of Spanish commuters in Madrid blown apart or thousands of other cowardly assaults on innocent civilians anywhere in the world.
What do all of these terrible attacks have in common? Militant Islamic terrorists conduct them all. Whatever name they use, the Taliban, Al Quada, Hamas, Hezbollah or a thousand other little known similar organizations, they are all the same and their aim is our destruction.
Whether you’re Nick Berg in Iraq or Daniel Pearl in Pakistan it doesn’t much matter what label your Islamic terrorist has when he is hacking your head from your body.
The current and recent attacks on the Indian sub-continent are especially worrying for a series of reasons that are both inescapable and very scary. It is clear that the insidious and evil reach of the Taliban has infected more than the lawless borderlands running between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In fact the Pakistani government recently allowed its own Swat valley to become Taliban territory although it is nominally still part of their country.
The Swat valley is an administrative district in the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan located about 100 miles from Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. This once princely state with its high mountains, green meadows, and clear lakes, was once popular with tourists as "the Switzerland of Pakistan". In December last year most of the area was captured by the Taliban insurgency and Islamist militant leader Maulana Fazlullah and his group Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi that have banned education for girls and bombed or burnt more hundreds of schools for girls and many other government-owned buildings.
The result is that there will be no education for the girls of that benighted place. The Taliban in Afghanistan continue to attack girls who still dare to go to school and recently threw acid in the faces of many of the girls who dared to want to be educated.
I have never understood the loony left wing liberals who espouse furiously against anyone they dislike but who think its cool and fun to wear T-shirts that say, “We are all Hamas now!” Now the Taliban are killing and maiming the women of their own nation where are the left wing protests against these acts of barbarism?
Instead we are urged to understand the plight of the various Islamist populations and their motivation for hating and killing us or anyone else that they take a dislike to. Personally I don’t think the world is helped by this attitude. The vast majority of Muslims in the world hate these terrorists as much as anyone else. But they must make this known not only by their words but also by their actions.
The current and festering danger is that the entire region of Afghanistan and Pakistan is being terminally destabilized and this will continue and escalate unless and until there is a clear strategy to combat and contain this menace emanating principally from the USA and supported by the EU, China and Russia. The reason for this being so vital is obvious, Pakistan is a nuclear state and there can be no more terrifying image than a Pakistan run by the Taliban having at their disposal weapons of mass destruction. The rest of the world is severely threatened as this situation degenerates.
There are many sweetheart deals being done by various nation states to placate or mollify the growing terrorist menace I describe. There is no question that the aim is to “buy” a quiet life in the forlorn hope that their turn to be beheaded will never arrive.
This is not far fetched and cannot be allowed. There must not be any more bending of the knee to the world wide terrorist threat. You do not achieve peace by appeasement you achieve defeat.
We are fighting with one hand tied behind our back in Afghanistan whilst most of our allies with the noble exception of the Americans do little or no real fighting at all. This cannot continue. It is time we burned the poppy fields and attacked the Taliban where they live and where they hide, on the borders of Pakistan. If we have to pursue terrorists across borders we have to do so. There can be no safe havens for our deadly enemies.
Such Islamic holy warriors publicly state that their idea of compromise is the world’s surrender to an Islamic caliphate; failing which they want us dead. We must not allow such lunatics the levers of ultimate power and weapons of mass destruction. We must widen the fight against the terrorists now, while we are much stronger than they are, or we will live to regret our hesitation.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
GordonBrownDeadManWalking
Psst, heard the one about THE TEST?
A man is drowning in a torrent of floodwater.
He fights for his life, trying not to be taken down with the debris.
You move closer... the man looks familiar...
Suddenly you realize who it is... It's Prime Minister Gordon Brown!
You notice that the raging waters are about to take him under forever.
You have two options:
Either save the life of Gordon Brown
Or shoot a dramatic Pulitzer Prize-winning photo, documenting the death of the country's most powerful man!
THE QUESTION
Here's the question, and please reply honestly...
Would you select high contrast color film, or would you go with the classic simplicity of black and white?
The tipping point of a political leader comes not with their first hesitation or self-doubt; rather it arrives with the first titter of disdain. With the first joke about a leader comes the warning of their political demise being not too far distant.
Before Gordon Brown forcibly succeeded Tony Blair there was talk of his clunking great fist of authority. I addressed him as the man who thought he was the reincarnation of the Lord Protector, the leader of Britain’s brief Republicanism, Oliver Cromwell. Now I think of Brown as a bad joke. Sadly he’s about the only man who doesn’t get the humor.
We can imagine the day when Blair decided he had enough of Brown demanding his turn at the helm of the ship of state. It was precisely the moment when Blair calculated Brown was doomed not only to fail; but also to fail with ignominious and disastrous consequences. Brown reminds me of the character that knows the cost of everything but the value of nothing. Blair’s reaction to this must be a good deal of schadenfreude as he watches his old political foe struggle with the political and financial storms swirling around his suddenly old, tired, gnarled and ravaged head.
The Prime Minister arrived in Washington today ready to create sound bites with President Obama who is a man with very sensitive political antennae. You can bet big money there will be limited photo opportunities and scant time afforded to Brown. He still seriously believes that he is the man who saved the world from the present financial crisis.
I have some bad news for Gordon; he hasn’t saved the UK from this crisis, let alone the world. No one knows how this is all going to be resolved but one thing is for sure, Mister Brown will be long gone from his Prime Ministerial role at that time.
Heard the one that sums it all up?
If the 'Midas touch' is defined as someone of good fortune, for whom everything they touch "turns to gold".
Gordon Brown must have the 'Toilet tissue touch.'
A man is drowning in a torrent of floodwater.
He fights for his life, trying not to be taken down with the debris.
You move closer... the man looks familiar...
Suddenly you realize who it is... It's Prime Minister Gordon Brown!
You notice that the raging waters are about to take him under forever.
You have two options:
Either save the life of Gordon Brown
Or shoot a dramatic Pulitzer Prize-winning photo, documenting the death of the country's most powerful man!
THE QUESTION
Here's the question, and please reply honestly...
Would you select high contrast color film, or would you go with the classic simplicity of black and white?
The tipping point of a political leader comes not with their first hesitation or self-doubt; rather it arrives with the first titter of disdain. With the first joke about a leader comes the warning of their political demise being not too far distant.
Before Gordon Brown forcibly succeeded Tony Blair there was talk of his clunking great fist of authority. I addressed him as the man who thought he was the reincarnation of the Lord Protector, the leader of Britain’s brief Republicanism, Oliver Cromwell. Now I think of Brown as a bad joke. Sadly he’s about the only man who doesn’t get the humor.
We can imagine the day when Blair decided he had enough of Brown demanding his turn at the helm of the ship of state. It was precisely the moment when Blair calculated Brown was doomed not only to fail; but also to fail with ignominious and disastrous consequences. Brown reminds me of the character that knows the cost of everything but the value of nothing. Blair’s reaction to this must be a good deal of schadenfreude as he watches his old political foe struggle with the political and financial storms swirling around his suddenly old, tired, gnarled and ravaged head.
The Prime Minister arrived in Washington today ready to create sound bites with President Obama who is a man with very sensitive political antennae. You can bet big money there will be limited photo opportunities and scant time afforded to Brown. He still seriously believes that he is the man who saved the world from the present financial crisis.
I have some bad news for Gordon; he hasn’t saved the UK from this crisis, let alone the world. No one knows how this is all going to be resolved but one thing is for sure, Mister Brown will be long gone from his Prime Ministerial role at that time.
Heard the one that sums it all up?
If the 'Midas touch' is defined as someone of good fortune, for whom everything they touch "turns to gold".
Gordon Brown must have the 'Toilet tissue touch.'
Monday, March 2, 2009
FearForTheFuture
Sometimes you see something so scary that you can’t quite believe it. Yesterday was just such a moment. On Britain’s Andrew Marr show, broadcast Sunday morning on the BBC the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, Harriet Harman was a principal guest.
Marr was questioning the senior parliamentarian about the huge pension of Sir Fred Goodwin, which we wrote about in this column a few days ago.
In that column I wrote:
“This is epic hypocrisy by the most inept and injudicious British government ever.
Of course Goodwin should never have received one penny, in fact he should never have been in a job he was clearly not capable of doing. But he was in that job and he did negotiate a deal with those ministers and they all signed it willingly. There is no justification for a country to break a contract of its own devising. This would be both illegal and amoral. Of course a government could change the law retroactively to stop the knight getting his pension but that would be an act of petty venality that even this bankrupt leadership couldn’t justify. If that kind of thing is to be allowed we have entered a very dark tunnel indeed”.
When I made that statement I was more than half joking. I never thought that a senior minister would seriously suggest that the government were prepared to enact a retroactive law to negate a contract it had supported, allowed and in fact rubber stamped just a few weeks ago. Andrew Marr gave Harman several opportunities to slide away from her assertion that her government, led by the Prime Minister, simply would not allow Goodwin to retain these payments. When Marr reiterated that they would be breaking the law to break this contract whatever they thought of the morality of the situation she persisted that this man would better understand that he should not plan his future taking this pension into account, as he would not be receiving it!
I repeat, for the record, that I don’t like Goodwin, and never did. But I didn’t work with him or negotiate his contract or his departure, the government and the almost totally state owned bank did that. But whatever I think of him or them, and for me it’s a curse on both of their houses, you can’t simply dishonor a contract or force anyone else to do so in a law abiding country which is run with our common acquiescence to the laws, rules and regulations that we all accept. This is especially the case when you represent the law as our elected representatives do.
I will fight for the right for that bastard Goodwin to get his pound of flesh, because that is his legal right and no one should be able to take away the selfish man’s money.
If this government does succeed in their Robert Mugabe like interpretation of laws and justice and stops Goodwin from getting his ill gotten pension then people like me, who treasure freedom and democracy will have to fight or leave the country; the time for silence is gone.
Marr was questioning the senior parliamentarian about the huge pension of Sir Fred Goodwin, which we wrote about in this column a few days ago.
In that column I wrote:
“This is epic hypocrisy by the most inept and injudicious British government ever.
Of course Goodwin should never have received one penny, in fact he should never have been in a job he was clearly not capable of doing. But he was in that job and he did negotiate a deal with those ministers and they all signed it willingly. There is no justification for a country to break a contract of its own devising. This would be both illegal and amoral. Of course a government could change the law retroactively to stop the knight getting his pension but that would be an act of petty venality that even this bankrupt leadership couldn’t justify. If that kind of thing is to be allowed we have entered a very dark tunnel indeed”.
When I made that statement I was more than half joking. I never thought that a senior minister would seriously suggest that the government were prepared to enact a retroactive law to negate a contract it had supported, allowed and in fact rubber stamped just a few weeks ago. Andrew Marr gave Harman several opportunities to slide away from her assertion that her government, led by the Prime Minister, simply would not allow Goodwin to retain these payments. When Marr reiterated that they would be breaking the law to break this contract whatever they thought of the morality of the situation she persisted that this man would better understand that he should not plan his future taking this pension into account, as he would not be receiving it!
I repeat, for the record, that I don’t like Goodwin, and never did. But I didn’t work with him or negotiate his contract or his departure, the government and the almost totally state owned bank did that. But whatever I think of him or them, and for me it’s a curse on both of their houses, you can’t simply dishonor a contract or force anyone else to do so in a law abiding country which is run with our common acquiescence to the laws, rules and regulations that we all accept. This is especially the case when you represent the law as our elected representatives do.
I will fight for the right for that bastard Goodwin to get his pound of flesh, because that is his legal right and no one should be able to take away the selfish man’s money.
If this government does succeed in their Robert Mugabe like interpretation of laws and justice and stops Goodwin from getting his ill gotten pension then people like me, who treasure freedom and democracy will have to fight or leave the country; the time for silence is gone.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
InvertedSnobbery
There is an inverted mental and sexist snobbery at work in the UK. We have a television quiz show called University Challenge. There are four representatives from each college and they answer, if they can, the tough questions asked. It’s first to the buzzer stuff and remember these are ultra tough questions.
Recently there has been a female contestant called Gail Trimble who led her team from Corpus Christie College to overall series victory. Gail has the misfortune to have scored more points than any other contestant in the shows very long history. The reasons for her being singled out for special criticism have varied to people pointing out they don’t like her teeth, eyes, clothes, hair and smile etc.
I don’t remember similar critiques being handed out to male contestants however poorly they looked or spoke or smiled whether they were clever or not. This is sexist behavior of the most obvious and odious kind. The woman in question is seriously clever and although I don’t know her I find a quick brain in a woman particularly attractive.
The only other excuse for criticism such as this is jealousy about her sheer mental capacity. Indirectly, and to a much lesser extent I can empathize with this. As a boy I was happily bungling along at school, drifting somewhere in the middle of the middle stream. Along came the United Nations and their international school IQ tests. I have since found out that their idea was to discover evidence of whether IQ scores around the globe were affected by nationality, race, and gender, social and economic background.
Not understanding this at age 11 I sat down in the school’s big assembly hall along with the rest of the boys of my age to sit the IQ test. On the front cover of this we were asked what our parents occupation was. Being a cheeky bugger I wrote (and may the Lord forgive me!) that my mother was a prostitute and my father a refuse collector. Needless to say this was not the case, as my mother was a respectable housewife and my father was, by then, in the film industry. I have no idea if this had any effect on my eventual score, which was to cause me never ending grief.
Some time later I was called in to chat with the school Principal a man I had been doing my best to avoid at all costs. He was all smiles as he indicated that as my score was in the top 2% of the country he expected me to do considerably better in all my future examinations.
That year I came 22nd in the B stream and questions were asked. Following this I did a little better but now everyone was pointing out that with my intellect I should clearly be top of the class. “Could do better” became the standard observation for whatever I did.
When I was 13 I was fed up with being told I could do better and I actually did a lot better. I came joint top of the year with a boy called Ruffhead who had total recall. I was very pleased with myself until I was told that I could still do better. This was despite my coming top!
From that point on I followed my own drumbeat as I came to realize that such crude measures, as IQ can be as much a burden as a plus. Although my brain and memory have stood me in good stead in certain circumstances such as winning at Trivial Pursuit, they don’t measure up to common sense, intuition or emotional intelligence as vital attributes with which I am not so blessed.
If a woman has all of these attributes they are blessed and if you’re the man who is fortunate enough to share them you are doubly blessed. Cute and sexy may be a plus but to really be sexy you need more than a nice smile.
Recently there has been a female contestant called Gail Trimble who led her team from Corpus Christie College to overall series victory. Gail has the misfortune to have scored more points than any other contestant in the shows very long history. The reasons for her being singled out for special criticism have varied to people pointing out they don’t like her teeth, eyes, clothes, hair and smile etc.
I don’t remember similar critiques being handed out to male contestants however poorly they looked or spoke or smiled whether they were clever or not. This is sexist behavior of the most obvious and odious kind. The woman in question is seriously clever and although I don’t know her I find a quick brain in a woman particularly attractive.
The only other excuse for criticism such as this is jealousy about her sheer mental capacity. Indirectly, and to a much lesser extent I can empathize with this. As a boy I was happily bungling along at school, drifting somewhere in the middle of the middle stream. Along came the United Nations and their international school IQ tests. I have since found out that their idea was to discover evidence of whether IQ scores around the globe were affected by nationality, race, and gender, social and economic background.
Not understanding this at age 11 I sat down in the school’s big assembly hall along with the rest of the boys of my age to sit the IQ test. On the front cover of this we were asked what our parents occupation was. Being a cheeky bugger I wrote (and may the Lord forgive me!) that my mother was a prostitute and my father a refuse collector. Needless to say this was not the case, as my mother was a respectable housewife and my father was, by then, in the film industry. I have no idea if this had any effect on my eventual score, which was to cause me never ending grief.
Some time later I was called in to chat with the school Principal a man I had been doing my best to avoid at all costs. He was all smiles as he indicated that as my score was in the top 2% of the country he expected me to do considerably better in all my future examinations.
That year I came 22nd in the B stream and questions were asked. Following this I did a little better but now everyone was pointing out that with my intellect I should clearly be top of the class. “Could do better” became the standard observation for whatever I did.
When I was 13 I was fed up with being told I could do better and I actually did a lot better. I came joint top of the year with a boy called Ruffhead who had total recall. I was very pleased with myself until I was told that I could still do better. This was despite my coming top!
From that point on I followed my own drumbeat as I came to realize that such crude measures, as IQ can be as much a burden as a plus. Although my brain and memory have stood me in good stead in certain circumstances such as winning at Trivial Pursuit, they don’t measure up to common sense, intuition or emotional intelligence as vital attributes with which I am not so blessed.
If a woman has all of these attributes they are blessed and if you’re the man who is fortunate enough to share them you are doubly blessed. Cute and sexy may be a plus but to really be sexy you need more than a nice smile.
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