Below I reproduce a letter received from Brad, an educator in the States. It is in response to my article yesterday in this column about the way forward for our education systems.
By way of explanation I was trying to make the point that we needed the hard subjects to be taught with rigor, I was arguing against pointless creative degrees that don’t help either the students or society. I wholeheartedly support and participate in higher education for meaningful creative degrees that result in fulfillment and jobs.
There is a very real advantage in higher education for its own sake, and we should all treasure and protect it. However, to survive and prosper as successful countries in every sense, we must re-learn some very basic lessons. One of these is that we have to manufacture for ourselves, grow more and sell more. To achieve this we must educate our young to these ends; perhaps not instead of entirely, but as well as.
Now over to Brad: -
“As you can well imagine, I am on board with your column on education.
One caveat: you can't build a math/science culture by freaking out about foreign competition. There has to be a "pure" interest in science in the culture at large--as there was in physics and logic at the beginning of
this century, the space race later on, etc.
The most revolutionary ideas emerge from pure research and this is what is disappearing e.g.—the supercollider, kyboshed in Texas some years ago. Very few people could explain what that is all about; therefore, the money dries up. This was less of a problem with the moon shot. That's why the humanities are not trivial--science cannot situate itself as a narrative, metaphor or cultural vector--you need writers, thinkers, and moviemakers--but literate ones.
I'm struck in reading math bios how many got into the field because of George Gamow's "1,2,3...infinity." That little book sent a lot of
people on their way--as did science fiction, the very lucid philosophical,
Pop sci books of Einstein (Einstein and Infeld's Evolution of Physics),
Asimov, Raymond Smullyan...there's just no hook right now. The kids don't
care about outer space, which is fine and understandable, they care about inner space.
O.k., but innovations in computing require a background in
Math and mathematical logic--so the hook as to be elsewhere than
gadgets--e.g. --What exactly is a non-classical logic? Are we made of?
logic--or something else--is that "something else" writable in logic, or
does it show up as a barrier (we get knowledge of it negatively)? Why
does group theory explain so much at the level of particle physics--did
God make the world from group theory, or again, is there a "something
else" we will never get our hands on, but that keeps reinventing itself as
new paradigms? I would say there is even a mystical-religious hook
there for some--which is not a bad place for religion-- The "answers" to
these questions, open-ended as they are, are in the actual math and
science--that should be the hook.
Just putting a kid on a computer is not solving anything--though that is
much of the budget in education nowadays--building enormous computer labs.
I would slash way back on that and hire math science people at top dollar who actually know how to teach--a rare combination. Those people need a chalkboard and textbooks--that's about it really, at least in math/logic, which is the pedestal on which it all rests. Mostly they need money to make it worth their while--which will never happen as long as teacher's unions are in charge.”
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
AcademicMisconceptions
Today is one of those wonderful days when England is the greatest place in the world. The sun is shining and the world has a smile on its face. Dare I say that the winter is being replaced by the first warmer breath of a more gentle spring?
Yesterday was also fabulous but I spent the entire day in a series of meetings as Process Panel Member for two pre-validation meetings preparing new BA degrees. I mustn’t mention any details here but I do want to touch on what this means.
The English validation and external examiner systems are, if used correctly, excellent safeguards for the academic credibility of our country. Despite what you hear about our system being terrible you shouldn’t be too dismayed. Yes, there are faults, but the system is not all bad.
One of the best proofs of this is that so many other countries still envy our system of higher education. This is evidenced when they seek the services of our academics at every level and for all purposes.
Despite being constantly under funded our best universities still compare favorably with the best in the world. Our average institutions continue to be on a par with those of a similar type elsewhere and are better than most.
The poor universities in England are pretty bad if you measure them purely as academic or research institutions. But the truth is that the way we measure these places is not appropriate to their original design. They are more suited to their original vocational type qualifications created when they were still Polytechnics.
What must be understood and rectified is the most important element of the real problem. We are simply not creating enough graduates of excellence in the subject areas that will support our society in future.
We need an ever-growing cadre of engineers, mathematicians, scientists, doctors and computer designers but we lack them in sufficient numbers. This is because we have encouraged a generation of people such as unemployable ill-defined creative folks to accompany too many social scientists and psychologists. I make this statement despite the fact that I work in the creative area. As a country we will not be able to sustain so many people working in the non-productive Public sector, we can no longer afford such conceit.
Not only are we undershooting the number of people required for the essential disciplines but we are also failing to ensure that they are of top international top quality. The future graduate has to be to be able to battle with a chance of winning in the future very competitive fields they will inhabit.
The root cause of this lack of our people excelling in the right areas started in a perverse and seemingly unconnected manner. In the middle 1980’s it became acceptable for our doctrinaire educators to mislead our young children that winning and losing was finished. Competition was actively discouraged. Such positions as first or last were effectively abolished.
The results are self-evident and totally counter productive. How do you tell a student that his exam results matters when it has been drummed into him that competition is somehow evil and negative?
Similar muddled thinking and attempts at social engineering took place in the USA and the consequences in the Community College system has been progressively more dumb students.
This simply has to stop or we will be buried by more motivated and qualified graduates from the emerging powerhouse economies in such countries as India and China. All we will be qualified to do is consume the products of these countries and entertain our new masters in exchange for crumbs from their table.
Yesterday was also fabulous but I spent the entire day in a series of meetings as Process Panel Member for two pre-validation meetings preparing new BA degrees. I mustn’t mention any details here but I do want to touch on what this means.
The English validation and external examiner systems are, if used correctly, excellent safeguards for the academic credibility of our country. Despite what you hear about our system being terrible you shouldn’t be too dismayed. Yes, there are faults, but the system is not all bad.
One of the best proofs of this is that so many other countries still envy our system of higher education. This is evidenced when they seek the services of our academics at every level and for all purposes.
Despite being constantly under funded our best universities still compare favorably with the best in the world. Our average institutions continue to be on a par with those of a similar type elsewhere and are better than most.
The poor universities in England are pretty bad if you measure them purely as academic or research institutions. But the truth is that the way we measure these places is not appropriate to their original design. They are more suited to their original vocational type qualifications created when they were still Polytechnics.
What must be understood and rectified is the most important element of the real problem. We are simply not creating enough graduates of excellence in the subject areas that will support our society in future.
We need an ever-growing cadre of engineers, mathematicians, scientists, doctors and computer designers but we lack them in sufficient numbers. This is because we have encouraged a generation of people such as unemployable ill-defined creative folks to accompany too many social scientists and psychologists. I make this statement despite the fact that I work in the creative area. As a country we will not be able to sustain so many people working in the non-productive Public sector, we can no longer afford such conceit.
Not only are we undershooting the number of people required for the essential disciplines but we are also failing to ensure that they are of top international top quality. The future graduate has to be to be able to battle with a chance of winning in the future very competitive fields they will inhabit.
The root cause of this lack of our people excelling in the right areas started in a perverse and seemingly unconnected manner. In the middle 1980’s it became acceptable for our doctrinaire educators to mislead our young children that winning and losing was finished. Competition was actively discouraged. Such positions as first or last were effectively abolished.
The results are self-evident and totally counter productive. How do you tell a student that his exam results matters when it has been drummed into him that competition is somehow evil and negative?
Similar muddled thinking and attempts at social engineering took place in the USA and the consequences in the Community College system has been progressively more dumb students.
This simply has to stop or we will be buried by more motivated and qualified graduates from the emerging powerhouse economies in such countries as India and China. All we will be qualified to do is consume the products of these countries and entertain our new masters in exchange for crumbs from their table.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
TheFutureArrives
On Friday, October 17, 2008 I wrote an article entitled, “Predicting the Future” in which I stated;
“There are certain things a shrewd columnist should never do; chief amongst them is any attempt to predict the future. This article proves that I am not very shrewd as I am going to attempt some forecasting.
We start with a relative no brainer; Obama is going to be the next President of the USA. I’m not suggesting who my preference is here, as its not relevant, me not being American and therefore unable to cast a vote.
Once Obama is elected and in office I truly hope that the security services does everything to enhance his personal safety as he is sure to be a target for every nut case on the planet, particularly American lunatics who view him as if he were the anti-Christ.
The next people likely to test Obama once he’s in the White House will be the Russians, as its almost impossible to see President Putin not seeing how far he can push the new man. The likely spot for the test will be the Crimean Peninsula of the Ukraine, in which the majority of the population is ethnically Russian but the government is Ukrainian. The situation is made more volatile by the Ukrainian government wishing to move west politically whilst the Russian fleet has its base in Sebastopol within the Ukraine. This is the Georgian scenario writ large, and is a boil waiting to burst.”
Yesterday the future arrived without many people even noticing. During a speech to his military leaders President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday announced a "large-scale" rearmament and renewal of Russia's nuclear arsenal, accusing NATO of pushing ahead with expansion near Russian borders.
He was addressing a meeting of Russia’s defense chiefs in Moscow, Medvedev said, "From 2011, a large-scale rearmament of the army and navy will begin,”
He went on to call for a renewal of Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal whilst claiming that NATO is continuing its push to expand the alliance's physical presence surrounding Russia's borders.
"Analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that a serious conflict potential remains in some regions," Medvedev said.
He focused on local crises and international terrorism as security threats and added: "Attempts to expand the military infrastructure of NATO near the borders of our country are continuing. The primary task is to increase the combat readiness of our forces, first of all our strategic nuclear forces. They must be able to fulfill all tasks necessary to ensure Russia's security,"
Medvedev went on to praise Russia's military thrust into Georgia last year in defense of the rebel region of South Ossetia, he also said the conflict had shown up the military's failings.
The comments came despite an apparent thawing of US-Russian relations since the inauguration of President Barack Obama in January. But this is the first test by the big beasts of the new President’s resolve.
“There are certain things a shrewd columnist should never do; chief amongst them is any attempt to predict the future. This article proves that I am not very shrewd as I am going to attempt some forecasting.
We start with a relative no brainer; Obama is going to be the next President of the USA. I’m not suggesting who my preference is here, as its not relevant, me not being American and therefore unable to cast a vote.
Once Obama is elected and in office I truly hope that the security services does everything to enhance his personal safety as he is sure to be a target for every nut case on the planet, particularly American lunatics who view him as if he were the anti-Christ.
The next people likely to test Obama once he’s in the White House will be the Russians, as its almost impossible to see President Putin not seeing how far he can push the new man. The likely spot for the test will be the Crimean Peninsula of the Ukraine, in which the majority of the population is ethnically Russian but the government is Ukrainian. The situation is made more volatile by the Ukrainian government wishing to move west politically whilst the Russian fleet has its base in Sebastopol within the Ukraine. This is the Georgian scenario writ large, and is a boil waiting to burst.”
Yesterday the future arrived without many people even noticing. During a speech to his military leaders President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday announced a "large-scale" rearmament and renewal of Russia's nuclear arsenal, accusing NATO of pushing ahead with expansion near Russian borders.
He was addressing a meeting of Russia’s defense chiefs in Moscow, Medvedev said, "From 2011, a large-scale rearmament of the army and navy will begin,”
He went on to call for a renewal of Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal whilst claiming that NATO is continuing its push to expand the alliance's physical presence surrounding Russia's borders.
"Analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that a serious conflict potential remains in some regions," Medvedev said.
He focused on local crises and international terrorism as security threats and added: "Attempts to expand the military infrastructure of NATO near the borders of our country are continuing. The primary task is to increase the combat readiness of our forces, first of all our strategic nuclear forces. They must be able to fulfill all tasks necessary to ensure Russia's security,"
Medvedev went on to praise Russia's military thrust into Georgia last year in defense of the rebel region of South Ossetia, he also said the conflict had shown up the military's failings.
The comments came despite an apparent thawing of US-Russian relations since the inauguration of President Barack Obama in January. But this is the first test by the big beasts of the new President’s resolve.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
NannyState
We return to one of my pet peeves, the Nanny State. In Britain almost every aspect of our lives is now considered fair game for our political masters.
Not satisfied with taxes, both visible and invisible, too numerous to mention, they now feel quite entitled to tell us what we should eat, how much, when to exercise, what our kids should eat at school, how much alcohol we should consume, how to sift our garbage, what type of cars to drive. In fact the list is endless.
If you go to the cinema in time for the advertising most of it features the things you should or shouldn’t do. Today I went to the movies and there were slots to tell you to conduct safe sex, another to remind you to drive slowly, and yet another to watch out for motorcyclists. This was in addition to the material extolling the virtue of continuing education and surely it can’t be long before they tell us to love our mothers!
Our government is now in the habit of floating some of their more outlandish ideas in advance to the media and then, dependant on the public reaction will decide whether to move forward with the plan.
Over the last weekend the Health gurus floated the idea of creating a minimum price for each unit of alcohol, thus eliminating cheap drink presently available from the supermarkets. The argument for doing this is to reduce the amount of ill health suffered and bad behavior perpetrated by those ignorant enough to over consume the demon booze.
Personally I consume virtually no alcohol so this doesn’t directly affect me, but it isn’t right for the government to use a tax to force anyone to drink less. It is not the government’s business to tell me how to live my life unless what I am doing directly and negatively affects someone else. Politicians should not, must not presume that they know what’s best for the individuals of our country.
Perhaps if the politicians were super efficient and morally and physically superior they could lead by example. But the sad truth is that they are now seen to be useless managers, inept at finance, are mean spirited, pompous and many of them are greedy and corrupt. Secretly many of them smoke, and the majority certainly doesn’t bear close physical examination.
It’s time our politicians concentrated on their jobs and left our lives to us.
Not satisfied with taxes, both visible and invisible, too numerous to mention, they now feel quite entitled to tell us what we should eat, how much, when to exercise, what our kids should eat at school, how much alcohol we should consume, how to sift our garbage, what type of cars to drive. In fact the list is endless.
If you go to the cinema in time for the advertising most of it features the things you should or shouldn’t do. Today I went to the movies and there were slots to tell you to conduct safe sex, another to remind you to drive slowly, and yet another to watch out for motorcyclists. This was in addition to the material extolling the virtue of continuing education and surely it can’t be long before they tell us to love our mothers!
Our government is now in the habit of floating some of their more outlandish ideas in advance to the media and then, dependant on the public reaction will decide whether to move forward with the plan.
Over the last weekend the Health gurus floated the idea of creating a minimum price for each unit of alcohol, thus eliminating cheap drink presently available from the supermarkets. The argument for doing this is to reduce the amount of ill health suffered and bad behavior perpetrated by those ignorant enough to over consume the demon booze.
Personally I consume virtually no alcohol so this doesn’t directly affect me, but it isn’t right for the government to use a tax to force anyone to drink less. It is not the government’s business to tell me how to live my life unless what I am doing directly and negatively affects someone else. Politicians should not, must not presume that they know what’s best for the individuals of our country.
Perhaps if the politicians were super efficient and morally and physically superior they could lead by example. But the sad truth is that they are now seen to be useless managers, inept at finance, are mean spirited, pompous and many of them are greedy and corrupt. Secretly many of them smoke, and the majority certainly doesn’t bear close physical examination.
It’s time our politicians concentrated on their jobs and left our lives to us.
Monday, March 16, 2009
NotSoSuperPower
I’m sorry, see Gordon Brown, it isn’t so hard to say those words. I am sorry not to have posted an article for a couple of days, thus breaking my own first article of electronic faith, to always be current and relevant. This is achieved by responding quickly to events.
This response is precisely what our political leaders were trying to achieve in the G20 summit rehearsal when the finance ministers got together in the UK over the last few days.
The problem for both the British and American Finance Ministers are that their voices, usually so loud and well received, are now being argued with or straight out ignored. The financial masters of the governmental universe are suddenly mere mortals. The ultimate Superpower, the USA, doesn’t know how to react to being just another country in trouble.
Larry Summers, the head of the White House’s National Economic Council informed the rest of the countries that America expected them all to agree to the stimulus package worth about 2% of their national income. He patronizingly informed them that he looked forward to their compliance during the G20 meetings in Sussex.
Summers is a man well known for his abrasiveness and he is unpopular in the other capitals which he has visits. The first to publicly voice his criticism of Summers position is the head of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker. He said that the US idea is, “not to our liking, Europe is not prepared to pile deficit on deficit.”
Perhaps more shocking is the fact that Germany and France, not so friendly lately, put aside their own scraps to combine in their rejection of American ideas.
Even Britain, normally a knee jerk ally of American plans, has become more cautious in its approach as its levels of public debt are already almost beyond measure.
More worrying still for America is that China is getting angry and impatient with America. Almost openly adopting the tone of an angry creditor the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated, “We have made a huge amount of loans to the UK. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried.” And this is the bit that should really be of concern to the once all powerful American government who he told, “to honor its words, stay a creditable nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”
Remember China already has about $1 trillion, or half, of its entire foreign currency reserves held in US government debt. Shortly China will also have almost no option but to swallow whole the vast majority of the next $1.7 trillion of American bonds that it will be selling to finance America’s spending plans.
Effectively China is now America’s paymaster every bit as much as the IMF props up some of the broken economies of the busted countries in Africa. New US Treasury Secretary Geithner didn’t understand this. During his confirmation hearings the Secretary accused the Chinese of currency manipulation as if America could do something about this. Clearly he was factually correct as the Chinese were bringing down the value of their currency to suit their own economic needs. But new realities dictate a healthy respect for America’s enlightened self-interest.
Suddenly Geithner has “got it” as he talks up the burgeoning friendship between China and America. But in real terms, China is the big butch guy and America is the coy girl about to be deflowered. All we can hope for is that both sides will enjoy their get together when it gets horizontal.
Similarly America and Europe are both renouncing their monopoly of appointment power at the IMF. All of this is a huge reality check for the new world order in which the weaknesses of American and European economies is resulting in a readjustment Eastwards of the levers of political power. Some of America’s leaders haven’t understood this message but other will, including President Obama.
No one can know the results of this tectonic shift of powers, which will become self-evident over the coming year. All we can know is that it will be a very different world.
This response is precisely what our political leaders were trying to achieve in the G20 summit rehearsal when the finance ministers got together in the UK over the last few days.
The problem for both the British and American Finance Ministers are that their voices, usually so loud and well received, are now being argued with or straight out ignored. The financial masters of the governmental universe are suddenly mere mortals. The ultimate Superpower, the USA, doesn’t know how to react to being just another country in trouble.
Larry Summers, the head of the White House’s National Economic Council informed the rest of the countries that America expected them all to agree to the stimulus package worth about 2% of their national income. He patronizingly informed them that he looked forward to their compliance during the G20 meetings in Sussex.
Summers is a man well known for his abrasiveness and he is unpopular in the other capitals which he has visits. The first to publicly voice his criticism of Summers position is the head of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker. He said that the US idea is, “not to our liking, Europe is not prepared to pile deficit on deficit.”
Perhaps more shocking is the fact that Germany and France, not so friendly lately, put aside their own scraps to combine in their rejection of American ideas.
Even Britain, normally a knee jerk ally of American plans, has become more cautious in its approach as its levels of public debt are already almost beyond measure.
More worrying still for America is that China is getting angry and impatient with America. Almost openly adopting the tone of an angry creditor the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated, “We have made a huge amount of loans to the UK. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried.” And this is the bit that should really be of concern to the once all powerful American government who he told, “to honor its words, stay a creditable nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”
Remember China already has about $1 trillion, or half, of its entire foreign currency reserves held in US government debt. Shortly China will also have almost no option but to swallow whole the vast majority of the next $1.7 trillion of American bonds that it will be selling to finance America’s spending plans.
Effectively China is now America’s paymaster every bit as much as the IMF props up some of the broken economies of the busted countries in Africa. New US Treasury Secretary Geithner didn’t understand this. During his confirmation hearings the Secretary accused the Chinese of currency manipulation as if America could do something about this. Clearly he was factually correct as the Chinese were bringing down the value of their currency to suit their own economic needs. But new realities dictate a healthy respect for America’s enlightened self-interest.
Suddenly Geithner has “got it” as he talks up the burgeoning friendship between China and America. But in real terms, China is the big butch guy and America is the coy girl about to be deflowered. All we can hope for is that both sides will enjoy their get together when it gets horizontal.
Similarly America and Europe are both renouncing their monopoly of appointment power at the IMF. All of this is a huge reality check for the new world order in which the weaknesses of American and European economies is resulting in a readjustment Eastwards of the levers of political power. Some of America’s leaders haven’t understood this message but other will, including President Obama.
No one can know the results of this tectonic shift of powers, which will become self-evident over the coming year. All we can know is that it will be a very different world.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Protectionism
It’s time for a pause for breath while we look around to see what’s really happening in the world economy. There are few reasons to be cheerful. It now seems probable that unless we all get very lucky there will be entire countries whose insolvency might result in their needing large scale, long -term economic assistance.
Principal amongst these countries are the Baltic States who are in grave danger of becoming basket cases. The drop of manufacturing in the rest of the world is hurting Russia’s reliance on its export of raw materials hugely. Even the Chinese manufacturing powerhouse is beginning to falter as demand is decimated. This slack cannot be taken up by infrastructure projects, however ambitious.
Most of Africa was, as ever, already in dire economic condition and as a peculiar quirk of the financial tragedy will probably notice the worsening situation less than the rest of the world. How does a diet of war, civil strife, corruption and starvation get worse?
The Anglo Saxon countries, previously the leaders of the laissez faire market model are very severely damaged. America and the UK are both starting to feel the first major problems of the current recession with unemployment rising fast, businesses going broke, industrial output collapsing and the bottom falling out of the property market.
It is becoming a real possibility that the UK might become a bankrupt nation if the present economic trajectory continues. Hopefully the measures being taken by the government will gather traction and succeed because there are few, if any meaningful further courses of action available to it. This year we will discover whether Prime Minister Gordon Brown is a super hero only in his own mind and it’s the IMF who has to come flying to the rescue.
One of the most worrying signs in the UK is the fact that the Quantitative Easing, effectively the last ditch printing of money to purchase gilts, which started yesterday, shows no sign of freeing up money in the banking system it was designed to achieve. The huge sums of money pledged to follow this type of route in both continents will now be filtered into the system over a period of years. There is an argument for quicker and even more drastic action. But the principal concern is whether any of the actions being taken can or will be successful. Already tried has been the central bankers first line of defense, which was to decrease the interest rates. Now these are almost sitting at or near 0% and it has yet to make any difference to the lack of lending from the banks to businesses and individuals. The banks need to be compelled by government to do this for the good of all.
If we are to fully rediscover our former prosperity we have to address fundamental problems and these are the even more intractable and relate to how our societies are structured. As a correspondent wrote to me;
“N.Y. time headline today: "Job losses hint at vast remaking of U.S. Economy" (Experts see permanent restructuring)
This is what my travelogues through the rust belt were getting at long ago when we first started corresponding. This is why I couldn't fathom the Iraq war. This country (America) is in no position to do anything but figure out how to educate itself--history would be a start for some, but science is more pressing at this point. Now that the former union people in the east will be competing in earnest with people in India, Korea and Mexico, you have to ask yourself why anyone would hire a fat, narrow-minded diabetic over someone with a real education. ..The Palin/Bush/Limbaugh stuff is symptomatic of a country that does not quite get what the labor force of the future is likely to resemble. Community colleges are suddenly swamped and there is push to re-train--o.k. but the Indians and Chinese actually have training in math, logic, poetics, English grammar--this is not something you fix with a community college. Where are the new starts that will actually create the new economy?
So...unemployment at 8.1 percent, but if you factor in those who have given up looking, it is 10 and if you factor in part timers who would like to be full-time it's 14 percent. Stay tuned.” - Brad
I am in total agreement with this view. We have lost sight of the ball and the West’s leading economies have, for a long time, foolishly misdirected our attention in an attempt at easy money, soft education and even physical sloth. Countries like India and Chine have been working harder, and are being better educated. Our leaders have been playing with winning elections whilst theirs look strategically to the future.
In the immediate future we must address our educational shortcomings more realistically and think seriously about the direction we want our societies to travel.
It’s time to consider how we make our money in the longer term as more of a priority than how much we can gain from short term fixes.
In the future will we be able to sustain prosperity by outsourcing production to the cheapest suppliers, whoever and wherever they are?
The present crisis proves that we have to plan strategically for all eventualities, even those that might seem improbable when the sun is shining. We are yet to learn any of the vital economic lessons, and are whistling in the dark as the bogeyman is stalking the shadows, still carrying his mighty axe.
The biggest threat to the entire world economic order is the distinct danger that countries and groups of countries will retire behind growing barriers of trade protection. It is this natural inclination for protectionism, which could yet send us into a full-blown Second Great Depression. It must be avoided at all costs.
Principal amongst these countries are the Baltic States who are in grave danger of becoming basket cases. The drop of manufacturing in the rest of the world is hurting Russia’s reliance on its export of raw materials hugely. Even the Chinese manufacturing powerhouse is beginning to falter as demand is decimated. This slack cannot be taken up by infrastructure projects, however ambitious.
Most of Africa was, as ever, already in dire economic condition and as a peculiar quirk of the financial tragedy will probably notice the worsening situation less than the rest of the world. How does a diet of war, civil strife, corruption and starvation get worse?
The Anglo Saxon countries, previously the leaders of the laissez faire market model are very severely damaged. America and the UK are both starting to feel the first major problems of the current recession with unemployment rising fast, businesses going broke, industrial output collapsing and the bottom falling out of the property market.
It is becoming a real possibility that the UK might become a bankrupt nation if the present economic trajectory continues. Hopefully the measures being taken by the government will gather traction and succeed because there are few, if any meaningful further courses of action available to it. This year we will discover whether Prime Minister Gordon Brown is a super hero only in his own mind and it’s the IMF who has to come flying to the rescue.
One of the most worrying signs in the UK is the fact that the Quantitative Easing, effectively the last ditch printing of money to purchase gilts, which started yesterday, shows no sign of freeing up money in the banking system it was designed to achieve. The huge sums of money pledged to follow this type of route in both continents will now be filtered into the system over a period of years. There is an argument for quicker and even more drastic action. But the principal concern is whether any of the actions being taken can or will be successful. Already tried has been the central bankers first line of defense, which was to decrease the interest rates. Now these are almost sitting at or near 0% and it has yet to make any difference to the lack of lending from the banks to businesses and individuals. The banks need to be compelled by government to do this for the good of all.
If we are to fully rediscover our former prosperity we have to address fundamental problems and these are the even more intractable and relate to how our societies are structured. As a correspondent wrote to me;
“N.Y. time headline today: "Job losses hint at vast remaking of U.S. Economy" (Experts see permanent restructuring)
This is what my travelogues through the rust belt were getting at long ago when we first started corresponding. This is why I couldn't fathom the Iraq war. This country (America) is in no position to do anything but figure out how to educate itself--history would be a start for some, but science is more pressing at this point. Now that the former union people in the east will be competing in earnest with people in India, Korea and Mexico, you have to ask yourself why anyone would hire a fat, narrow-minded diabetic over someone with a real education. ..The Palin/Bush/Limbaugh stuff is symptomatic of a country that does not quite get what the labor force of the future is likely to resemble. Community colleges are suddenly swamped and there is push to re-train--o.k. but the Indians and Chinese actually have training in math, logic, poetics, English grammar--this is not something you fix with a community college. Where are the new starts that will actually create the new economy?
So...unemployment at 8.1 percent, but if you factor in those who have given up looking, it is 10 and if you factor in part timers who would like to be full-time it's 14 percent. Stay tuned.” - Brad
I am in total agreement with this view. We have lost sight of the ball and the West’s leading economies have, for a long time, foolishly misdirected our attention in an attempt at easy money, soft education and even physical sloth. Countries like India and Chine have been working harder, and are being better educated. Our leaders have been playing with winning elections whilst theirs look strategically to the future.
In the immediate future we must address our educational shortcomings more realistically and think seriously about the direction we want our societies to travel.
It’s time to consider how we make our money in the longer term as more of a priority than how much we can gain from short term fixes.
In the future will we be able to sustain prosperity by outsourcing production to the cheapest suppliers, whoever and wherever they are?
The present crisis proves that we have to plan strategically for all eventualities, even those that might seem improbable when the sun is shining. We are yet to learn any of the vital economic lessons, and are whistling in the dark as the bogeyman is stalking the shadows, still carrying his mighty axe.
The biggest threat to the entire world economic order is the distinct danger that countries and groups of countries will retire behind growing barriers of trade protection. It is this natural inclination for protectionism, which could yet send us into a full-blown Second Great Depression. It must be avoided at all costs.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
OldFashionedValues
A few days ago a cousin telephoned to tell me that her cousin, on her dad’s side, was in town from Georgia, USA. Would I like to join them for dinner?
It was the first time I had seen John, his wife Betty and his sister Janet in nearly fifty years. Their mother was a British GI bride who had returned with her soldier husband to a farm just after the war.
Yesterday was the appointed day and we duly reconnected. They still live in a small rural town about 150 miles out of Atlanta where John teaches agricultural and forestry business and Betty teaches the Arts at the same High School,and Janet has retired..
As some of you know I have experience as a Lecturer in both Further and Higher Education in the UK and you might share my view that there are vast swathes of this part of the English academic structure that simply make no sense. One of the great curses here being that the systems are forced to change top down led by theorists rather than allowed to evolve and improve due to logic and experience. Sadly America seems to follow the same mistaken path although there the motivation might be more commercial and less ideologically driven.
But back to my extended family. I had forgotten how sweet and charming people from the backwoods of America can be. They didn’t complain about anything, they totally lacked cynicism and their attitude is totally positive and loving. They are deeply patriotic, love their country and even when they don’t support a leader as they don’t support President Obama, they sensibly wished him the strength and wisdom to complete his ambitious plans. Perhaps we could learn something from these “old fashioned” values.
Watching these country cousins sit open mouthed as they listened to the British branch of our loud, opinionated and feisty family complain about everything in Britain was a treat. They just couldn’t believe how we criticize almost everything in the UK, a country that they still enjoy and respect greatly.
One of the things that will stay with me from our brief time together was the ready smile on the faces of these genuinely good and wholesome people. We all hugged one another when it came to say our farewells and expressed the hope that we won’t be 100 years old when we next meet. After a great meal and the wonderful company of our kissing cousins I came away with a smile on my face.
It’s easy to forget that it was people like John, Janet and Betty who built America with their appreciation of family, education, tradition, law and justice. The sophisticates in the big cities, including me, should all learn something from this brief return to all our yesterdays.
It was the first time I had seen John, his wife Betty and his sister Janet in nearly fifty years. Their mother was a British GI bride who had returned with her soldier husband to a farm just after the war.
Yesterday was the appointed day and we duly reconnected. They still live in a small rural town about 150 miles out of Atlanta where John teaches agricultural and forestry business and Betty teaches the Arts at the same High School,and Janet has retired..
As some of you know I have experience as a Lecturer in both Further and Higher Education in the UK and you might share my view that there are vast swathes of this part of the English academic structure that simply make no sense. One of the great curses here being that the systems are forced to change top down led by theorists rather than allowed to evolve and improve due to logic and experience. Sadly America seems to follow the same mistaken path although there the motivation might be more commercial and less ideologically driven.
But back to my extended family. I had forgotten how sweet and charming people from the backwoods of America can be. They didn’t complain about anything, they totally lacked cynicism and their attitude is totally positive and loving. They are deeply patriotic, love their country and even when they don’t support a leader as they don’t support President Obama, they sensibly wished him the strength and wisdom to complete his ambitious plans. Perhaps we could learn something from these “old fashioned” values.
Watching these country cousins sit open mouthed as they listened to the British branch of our loud, opinionated and feisty family complain about everything in Britain was a treat. They just couldn’t believe how we criticize almost everything in the UK, a country that they still enjoy and respect greatly.
One of the things that will stay with me from our brief time together was the ready smile on the faces of these genuinely good and wholesome people. We all hugged one another when it came to say our farewells and expressed the hope that we won’t be 100 years old when we next meet. After a great meal and the wonderful company of our kissing cousins I came away with a smile on my face.
It’s easy to forget that it was people like John, Janet and Betty who built America with their appreciation of family, education, tradition, law and justice. The sophisticates in the big cities, including me, should all learn something from this brief return to all our yesterdays.
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