Some of you who have followed my articles in the past might find this one a bit odd. I have always argued for international cooperation and cross border freedom and today I am urging some of the opposite.
During this financial crisis there is the danger that well funded opportunists will raid across international borders to pick up bargains. Britain’s own Sir Philip Greene is apparently attempting to exploit Iceland’s own economic collapse to see if he can pillage that country’s international retail operations.
In light of the fact that Britain’s main commercial retail banks are worth about a tenth of their market capitalization last year this fate could soon befall them if they are not protected by the state.
Similarly, if the country suffers another week like the last one the industrial landscape will offer an environment of bargains the like of which have never been available before. This will be so tempting that the national identity of the UK economy will go from being acceptably international to totally foreign in a matter of weeks.
The same scenario could unfold all over the western world, particularly in the USA and Western Europe. It is essential that we don’t let short-term opportunism turn into the end of the free market for the host countries.
There is a big plus side if the major economic powers can work together for the common good and this will be achieved if they think longer term when they take agreed short-term tactical decisions. If countries break ranks in bodies like the European Union it would spell disaster for the institution.
In a few hours there will be coordinated announcements of the proposed actions to be taken internationally by each government, acting in concert, to steady the economic ship. It is beyond doubt that these moves are essential, and their success will only be evident if the pandemonium and panic selling eases with the opening of the markets. Another week of losses of the magnitude of recent weeks is simply too frightening to contemplate.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
AvoidingDanger
The meeting of the finance ministers of the G7 countries in the USA this weekend seems to have been long on rhetoric and short on deeds.
Although the summary given by President Bush promised a comprehensive and coordinated plan of action there appeared to be no specifics on what the plan is.
Of course they could have a plan in which the details are complex but the details haven’t been worked out yet. Or, and this is considerably more worrying, perhaps they have not been able to agree an overall plan.
On the positive side let’s remember that earlier in the week the big players did come together to lower the interest rates by .5% and no one had forecast such a well-coordinated and decisive action.
My bet is that they do have some specifics worked out and it is the minutiae that are yet to be resolved and rolled out in public over the coming weeks. It needs to be or the world is facing escalating economic chaos.
However this small speech by President Bush was the 27th. by him designed to show the public that he is on top of the situation and to reassure the markets. Unfortunately so many public utterances in which he doesn’t actually say anything specific is probably becoming both soporific and counter productive.
There is grave political danger inherent in this terrifying financial spiral because people become irrational in a financial crisis and aggression follows and this provokes equal and opposite reactions.
It is quite possible that there will be leaders of countries who will use this financial meltdown, as an excuse to impose draconian legislation and new dictatorships could emerge, not all of them benevolent. It is already becoming almost unpatriotic to question any measure being taken to bolster a nation’s economy.
In these circumstances, both actual and potential, it is the duty of us all to question, probe and protest when necessary. In the UK’s Parliament we have what we call Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. It is an antiquated term for exactly what our situation demands. Of course in every country everyone back logical, well-considered policies and actions that our leaders propose and take but although we should be loyal we sometimes have a duty to oppose and must always question.
Although the summary given by President Bush promised a comprehensive and coordinated plan of action there appeared to be no specifics on what the plan is.
Of course they could have a plan in which the details are complex but the details haven’t been worked out yet. Or, and this is considerably more worrying, perhaps they have not been able to agree an overall plan.
On the positive side let’s remember that earlier in the week the big players did come together to lower the interest rates by .5% and no one had forecast such a well-coordinated and decisive action.
My bet is that they do have some specifics worked out and it is the minutiae that are yet to be resolved and rolled out in public over the coming weeks. It needs to be or the world is facing escalating economic chaos.
However this small speech by President Bush was the 27th. by him designed to show the public that he is on top of the situation and to reassure the markets. Unfortunately so many public utterances in which he doesn’t actually say anything specific is probably becoming both soporific and counter productive.
There is grave political danger inherent in this terrifying financial spiral because people become irrational in a financial crisis and aggression follows and this provokes equal and opposite reactions.
It is quite possible that there will be leaders of countries who will use this financial meltdown, as an excuse to impose draconian legislation and new dictatorships could emerge, not all of them benevolent. It is already becoming almost unpatriotic to question any measure being taken to bolster a nation’s economy.
In these circumstances, both actual and potential, it is the duty of us all to question, probe and protest when necessary. In the UK’s Parliament we have what we call Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. It is an antiquated term for exactly what our situation demands. Of course in every country everyone back logical, well-considered policies and actions that our leaders propose and take but although we should be loyal we sometimes have a duty to oppose and must always question.
Friday, October 10, 2008
NeatTrickGordon
Have you noticed in all the financial mayhem that one guy is walking the walk and talking the talk, has a jaunty air, a smile on his face and a glint in his eye? I talk of the UK’s esteemed leader, step forward the Right Honorable Gordon Brown.
Our man at Number 10 Downing Street has rediscovered himself during the present crisis. This is turning into, he hopes, his Falklands War. If he can steer us through the financial and economic super storm raging all around us he will go down in history as one of the great leaders of our history. You can see him sniffing the air, scenting the battle and relishing the challenge. The man clearly believes that history has ordained it is his destiny to be here now, at this precise moment.
He is clearly picking fights that he can win, for example with the economic basket case, which goes under the name of the country of Iceland. That cursed place has imploded and is in real difficulty. All three of their main banking institutions have either gone belly up or been nationalized totally. The results are now becoming obvious to British individuals, businesses and local government areas. We stand to lose billions of pounds because the Icelandic government has frozen the pay back of any of their deposits whilst maintaining a guarantee for their own people. In anger driven revenge Gordon, now attired in his Batman suit, used the terrorism laws to freeze all Icelandic assets in the UK. He has threatened the Prime Minister of Iceland that if the British assets are not repaid then he will repay these to the British people affected using the Icelandic assets he has seized to do so.
Like the Icelandic Prime Minister I have to question the use of the anti terrorism laws to seize another country’s non-associated assets in the UK.
Brown claims that Iceland acted illegally by not honoring their bank guarantees, so how can Britain justify breaking international law by way of retribution?
These are very murky issues as is much that is happening across the world. For example, how is the British bank bail out actually going to work?
It looks like the government, on the behalf of all the citizens of the UK is supporting these banks, one way or another up to a figure of £500,000,000,000, 000 (Five hundred billion pounds or about $.85 trillion) of our money. That is one third, approximately, of our annual gross domestic product. That is a lot of money!
The neat trick is that Gordo has also announced that there will not be any reduction of public spending, and has hinted that there will also not be any tax increases. The latter supposition I am prone to believe as there will be an election some time next year and the costs of all this palaver will start to become clear after the next regime is in power. One thing is for sure; we shall all be paying for this long into our future.
Even more perverse is the fact that this money, which we, the great British public are lending to the banks, without any choice on our part, is in turn going to be lent back to us, as individuals and businesses. We will, no doubt, be charged the going rate of interest.
So, if we are lucky enough to be considered credit worthy after our money has been forcibly removed from our wallets we will be able to borrow this same money back. Is this where we are surprised as the man jumps out from behind the wall and says, “Smile you’re on candid camera!”?
No wonder Gordon Brown predicts that the country won’t lose by this transaction. It isn’t his money, or the country’s money at risk; it is my money, and your money. It will be the citizens of the country who will be losing.
Of course this is made even more tragic and unbearable in that Mr. Brown is right to do what he’s doing, and the rest of the world could do a great deal worse than emulate his actions which are likely to prove far more effective than the American and others global efforts so far. But there is a sad and underlying truth to be told; despite everyone’s efforts the market is continuing to panic, and while that holds true all bets are off and it will all continue to unravel in an increasingly fast paced crash.
Personally I think we all need a time out, perhaps one week with all the markets closed down so that everyone can catch their collective breath during which the great economic powers can construct an agreed series of actions to bring these potentially terrible economic events to an end before the human costs become unbearable.
Gordon, in the meantime forgive me for doubting that you are a magician, I thought I caught you smiling and laughing yesterday, you looked almost boyish. I’m beginning to believe you should have a new name, from here on let’s call you the master of mayhem. I’ll write anything if you can help lead the world back from the brink, you big adorable Scotsman. Here, do you want another £5; I think I still have a fiver left over.
Our man at Number 10 Downing Street has rediscovered himself during the present crisis. This is turning into, he hopes, his Falklands War. If he can steer us through the financial and economic super storm raging all around us he will go down in history as one of the great leaders of our history. You can see him sniffing the air, scenting the battle and relishing the challenge. The man clearly believes that history has ordained it is his destiny to be here now, at this precise moment.
He is clearly picking fights that he can win, for example with the economic basket case, which goes under the name of the country of Iceland. That cursed place has imploded and is in real difficulty. All three of their main banking institutions have either gone belly up or been nationalized totally. The results are now becoming obvious to British individuals, businesses and local government areas. We stand to lose billions of pounds because the Icelandic government has frozen the pay back of any of their deposits whilst maintaining a guarantee for their own people. In anger driven revenge Gordon, now attired in his Batman suit, used the terrorism laws to freeze all Icelandic assets in the UK. He has threatened the Prime Minister of Iceland that if the British assets are not repaid then he will repay these to the British people affected using the Icelandic assets he has seized to do so.
Like the Icelandic Prime Minister I have to question the use of the anti terrorism laws to seize another country’s non-associated assets in the UK.
Brown claims that Iceland acted illegally by not honoring their bank guarantees, so how can Britain justify breaking international law by way of retribution?
These are very murky issues as is much that is happening across the world. For example, how is the British bank bail out actually going to work?
It looks like the government, on the behalf of all the citizens of the UK is supporting these banks, one way or another up to a figure of £500,000,000,000, 000 (Five hundred billion pounds or about $.85 trillion) of our money. That is one third, approximately, of our annual gross domestic product. That is a lot of money!
The neat trick is that Gordo has also announced that there will not be any reduction of public spending, and has hinted that there will also not be any tax increases. The latter supposition I am prone to believe as there will be an election some time next year and the costs of all this palaver will start to become clear after the next regime is in power. One thing is for sure; we shall all be paying for this long into our future.
Even more perverse is the fact that this money, which we, the great British public are lending to the banks, without any choice on our part, is in turn going to be lent back to us, as individuals and businesses. We will, no doubt, be charged the going rate of interest.
So, if we are lucky enough to be considered credit worthy after our money has been forcibly removed from our wallets we will be able to borrow this same money back. Is this where we are surprised as the man jumps out from behind the wall and says, “Smile you’re on candid camera!”?
No wonder Gordon Brown predicts that the country won’t lose by this transaction. It isn’t his money, or the country’s money at risk; it is my money, and your money. It will be the citizens of the country who will be losing.
Of course this is made even more tragic and unbearable in that Mr. Brown is right to do what he’s doing, and the rest of the world could do a great deal worse than emulate his actions which are likely to prove far more effective than the American and others global efforts so far. But there is a sad and underlying truth to be told; despite everyone’s efforts the market is continuing to panic, and while that holds true all bets are off and it will all continue to unravel in an increasingly fast paced crash.
Personally I think we all need a time out, perhaps one week with all the markets closed down so that everyone can catch their collective breath during which the great economic powers can construct an agreed series of actions to bring these potentially terrible economic events to an end before the human costs become unbearable.
Gordon, in the meantime forgive me for doubting that you are a magician, I thought I caught you smiling and laughing yesterday, you looked almost boyish. I’m beginning to believe you should have a new name, from here on let’s call you the master of mayhem. I’ll write anything if you can help lead the world back from the brink, you big adorable Scotsman. Here, do you want another £5; I think I still have a fiver left over.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
PopsTheEconomist
My grandfather Gershon was not an economist, he was a tailor’s presser, not far up the food chain in terms of macro economic theory, but he possessed more common sense in one of his strong fingers than our present government leaders have in their entire bodies.
Poppa used to whistle and sing little foreign songs as he skipped up and down his pressing table lifting the impossibly heavy iron for hours without end. Whilst he did this he dispensed little pearls of homespun wisdom that have stayed with me.
One of these was a favorite, and you need to imagine it being said with a strong East European accent, “If you owe the bank one pound you have a problem, if you owe the bank one million pounds then they have a problem!”
This from a man who never borrowed a pound from anyone was quite a theoretical leap, but it seemed clever and true to me. So how does it work when you’re the bank and you owe hundreds of billions of pounds; who has the problem then?
The answer is obvious; we will all have the problem. And we need to remember that this is the gift that will keep on giving. The bad smell from this gift is going to be with us, like an anchor on our longer-term aspirations for generations to come.
I wrote several months ago that we are living through the last days of the golden age of our society and that soon it would draw to a close. I feel like calling myself a seer, but then again it was so obvious to me I was surprised that many other columnists were not making the same predictions. Our society was creating a fair facsimile of the South Sea Bubble, and like all bubbles it had to burst.
This morning the UK leaders followed their peers in many other countries in creating a supply of capital liquidity to our banks so that they were propped up against imminent and possible total collapse. We would all prefer not to be where we are, but we have to start rectifying the situation and this was an obvious if somewhat belated step. The time to start taking such decisions was when the run on Northern Rock started instead the management of this crisis has been piecemeal and tactical instead of what we needed, which was bold, decisive and strategic decisions.
The USA and the rest of the world is suffering from the almost identical problems, and it was refreshing and very positive that the central banks and governments acted together today to reduce their interest rates by .5%. As I’ve said before we must act together for survival or sink separately.
It is democratic and correct that the US Presidential debates and election goes on throughout this period. It validates our system of democracy and confirms that it will survive this crisis. However, it would be even more encouraging if both the candidates stated that whoever won the election would be happy to work in a government of national unity until this situation was resolved and it could go back to business as usual. The same applies in the UK and elsewhere. This problem is economic but so profound that it could have the same impact as a major war or natural national catastrophe and we must use anyone with talent and ability to help sort the problems out.
The single biggest problem of this British government is that its leaders are OK with plenty of time to think but not great when the bullets are flying and they need to be diving for cover and firing back. Gordon Brown doesn’t do quick or slick. There is no other choice but to back all of our governments through this crisis as it is the only hope of getting through the debacle with as little damage as possible. The time for recrimination is later; right now we need steady nerves.
We are all going to suffer some damage resulting from this crisis. Some might gain financially but will see friends and family lose. This is going to hurt our society and the extent of this damage could change perceptions. Remember the hyperinflation suffered by the Weimar Republic led directly on to Hitler. We must remain vigilant against extreme thoughts and actions.
Perhaps the best place to be right now is in front of the mirror whilst we consider whether we should use this problem as a pause in which we re-evaluate our lives?
Tonight and tomorrow is the Jewish religion’s Day of Atonement, otherwise known as Yom Kippur. There will be no blog posted (or much eating!) by me until Friday. In my own inadequate way I shall pray for forgiveness for the sins of us all. Let’s hope that when we resume work there is better news for us all.
Poppa used to whistle and sing little foreign songs as he skipped up and down his pressing table lifting the impossibly heavy iron for hours without end. Whilst he did this he dispensed little pearls of homespun wisdom that have stayed with me.
One of these was a favorite, and you need to imagine it being said with a strong East European accent, “If you owe the bank one pound you have a problem, if you owe the bank one million pounds then they have a problem!”
This from a man who never borrowed a pound from anyone was quite a theoretical leap, but it seemed clever and true to me. So how does it work when you’re the bank and you owe hundreds of billions of pounds; who has the problem then?
The answer is obvious; we will all have the problem. And we need to remember that this is the gift that will keep on giving. The bad smell from this gift is going to be with us, like an anchor on our longer-term aspirations for generations to come.
I wrote several months ago that we are living through the last days of the golden age of our society and that soon it would draw to a close. I feel like calling myself a seer, but then again it was so obvious to me I was surprised that many other columnists were not making the same predictions. Our society was creating a fair facsimile of the South Sea Bubble, and like all bubbles it had to burst.
This morning the UK leaders followed their peers in many other countries in creating a supply of capital liquidity to our banks so that they were propped up against imminent and possible total collapse. We would all prefer not to be where we are, but we have to start rectifying the situation and this was an obvious if somewhat belated step. The time to start taking such decisions was when the run on Northern Rock started instead the management of this crisis has been piecemeal and tactical instead of what we needed, which was bold, decisive and strategic decisions.
The USA and the rest of the world is suffering from the almost identical problems, and it was refreshing and very positive that the central banks and governments acted together today to reduce their interest rates by .5%. As I’ve said before we must act together for survival or sink separately.
It is democratic and correct that the US Presidential debates and election goes on throughout this period. It validates our system of democracy and confirms that it will survive this crisis. However, it would be even more encouraging if both the candidates stated that whoever won the election would be happy to work in a government of national unity until this situation was resolved and it could go back to business as usual. The same applies in the UK and elsewhere. This problem is economic but so profound that it could have the same impact as a major war or natural national catastrophe and we must use anyone with talent and ability to help sort the problems out.
The single biggest problem of this British government is that its leaders are OK with plenty of time to think but not great when the bullets are flying and they need to be diving for cover and firing back. Gordon Brown doesn’t do quick or slick. There is no other choice but to back all of our governments through this crisis as it is the only hope of getting through the debacle with as little damage as possible. The time for recrimination is later; right now we need steady nerves.
We are all going to suffer some damage resulting from this crisis. Some might gain financially but will see friends and family lose. This is going to hurt our society and the extent of this damage could change perceptions. Remember the hyperinflation suffered by the Weimar Republic led directly on to Hitler. We must remain vigilant against extreme thoughts and actions.
Perhaps the best place to be right now is in front of the mirror whilst we consider whether we should use this problem as a pause in which we re-evaluate our lives?
Tonight and tomorrow is the Jewish religion’s Day of Atonement, otherwise known as Yom Kippur. There will be no blog posted (or much eating!) by me until Friday. In my own inadequate way I shall pray for forgiveness for the sins of us all. Let’s hope that when we resume work there is better news for us all.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Twit
The departing commander of British forces in Afghanistan says he believes the Taliban will never be defeated. Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, the commander of 16 Air Assault Brigade, whose troops have suffered severe casualties after six months of tough fighting, will hand over to 3 Commando Brigade Royal Marines this month.
In fact, he goes further, he strongly suggests that the best we can hope for is to negotiate some kind of settlement or accommodation with the Taliban. Does he not understand that even if he is pragmatically correct there is a human cost to ordinary Afghanistanis if we go down that road? For the sake of clarity let me make the point that the Taliban are evil, psychotic, murderous bastards who are violently misogynistic, racist, and who have a long record of slaughtering anyone that disagrees with them.
He stated that a military victory over the Taliban was “neither feasible nor supportable”. With the Brigadier in charge I concur, it is a certainty with his attitude that there is zero chance of victory.
He continues, “What we need is sufficient troops to contain the insurgency to a level where it is not a strategic threat to the longevity of the elected Government”.
The brigadier believes that his soldiers had “taken the sting out of the Taliban” during ongoing clashes in Helmand province in southern Afghanistan, but at a heavy cost, with many of his men killed or injured by roadside bombs or other explosive devices.
The brigadier’s blunt warning follows a leaked cable from the deputy French Ambassador in Kabul in which he detailed dialogue with Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, the British Ambassador. It claimed that the strategy for Afghanistan was “doomed to failure”.
Mr Fitou told President Sarkozy that Sir Sherard believed “the security situation is getting worse, so is corruption and the Government has lost all trust”. He said Sir Sherard had told him Britain had no alternative but to support the US, “but we should tell them that we want to be part of a winning strategy, not a losing one. The American strategy is doomed to fail.”
You may well remember exactly the same sort of defeatist talk in Iraq before the super confident and competent General Petraeus came into military power there. He instigated the troop surge that almost everyone in the upper echelons of power, both military and diplomatic, believed was doomed to fail. In fact his tactics have been a major success, almost inconceivable just last year.
Brigadier Carleton-Smith admitted that it had been “a turbulent summer” but claimed the Taliban was “riven with deep fissures and fractures”.
He added: “However, the Taliban, tactically, is reasonably resilient, certainly quite dangerous and seems relatively impervious to losses. Its potency is as a force for influence.”
It is his belief that the only way forward was to find a political solution, which includes the Taliban with whom The Government of President Karzai has launched a reconciliation programme. The principal Taliban commanders are thought to be totally opposed to any compromise. Therefore negotiation efforts could be enhanced with the so-called “tier-two” and “tier-three” Taliban, who are perceived to be less ideologically intransigent. My view is that the Taliban are an enemy that has to be wiped out, as their idea of compromise is to kill you cleanly rather than sadistically.
The brigadier said that in the areas where the Government had no control, the Afghan population was “vulnerable to a shifting coalition of Taliban, mad mullahs and marauding militias”. In other areas, however, progress was being made and children were going back to school. “We are trying to deliver sufficient security for a degree of normalization,” he said.
The British commander said that there was a continuation of the 30-year-old Afghanistan government vacuum, and even now the Kabul Government didn’t view Helmand as a key province. He claimed that there were areas in which the Afghan people were starting to shift their allegiance towards traditional power structures “rather than the shadowy and illegal structures” of the Taliban and the warlords.
Just for the record Brigadier, you might be a good soldier, and you could be a nice chap, but you are certainly a grade A super twit! For my non-British readers a twit is a peculiarly British type of personality, somewhere beyond a fool and not quite a villain. It is defined by the sound of a small bird making a “twittering” sound, which is a little pathetic and somewhat plaintive.
The Brigadier is clearly aware he is about to be replaced or he wouldn’t utter such a defeatist and misleading statement. The truth is that any conflict is winnable with good strategy, well motivated and men and sufficient resources.
It could well be that the government’s refusal of his plea of September 24 to double the number of soldiers he could lead to cope with the increasingly tough fight against the Taliban so aggravated the general that he decided to push his case in this way. He has just got it wrong.
Despite my grave reservations at the Brigadier's tactics in this matter I still thank him, on behalf of us all, for his service and bravery for our country, during this tours of duty. I just wish our solders were as good at talking as they are at fighting.
In fact, he goes further, he strongly suggests that the best we can hope for is to negotiate some kind of settlement or accommodation with the Taliban. Does he not understand that even if he is pragmatically correct there is a human cost to ordinary Afghanistanis if we go down that road? For the sake of clarity let me make the point that the Taliban are evil, psychotic, murderous bastards who are violently misogynistic, racist, and who have a long record of slaughtering anyone that disagrees with them.
He stated that a military victory over the Taliban was “neither feasible nor supportable”. With the Brigadier in charge I concur, it is a certainty with his attitude that there is zero chance of victory.
He continues, “What we need is sufficient troops to contain the insurgency to a level where it is not a strategic threat to the longevity of the elected Government”.
The brigadier believes that his soldiers had “taken the sting out of the Taliban” during ongoing clashes in Helmand province in southern Afghanistan, but at a heavy cost, with many of his men killed or injured by roadside bombs or other explosive devices.
The brigadier’s blunt warning follows a leaked cable from the deputy French Ambassador in Kabul in which he detailed dialogue with Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, the British Ambassador. It claimed that the strategy for Afghanistan was “doomed to failure”.
Mr Fitou told President Sarkozy that Sir Sherard believed “the security situation is getting worse, so is corruption and the Government has lost all trust”. He said Sir Sherard had told him Britain had no alternative but to support the US, “but we should tell them that we want to be part of a winning strategy, not a losing one. The American strategy is doomed to fail.”
You may well remember exactly the same sort of defeatist talk in Iraq before the super confident and competent General Petraeus came into military power there. He instigated the troop surge that almost everyone in the upper echelons of power, both military and diplomatic, believed was doomed to fail. In fact his tactics have been a major success, almost inconceivable just last year.
Brigadier Carleton-Smith admitted that it had been “a turbulent summer” but claimed the Taliban was “riven with deep fissures and fractures”.
He added: “However, the Taliban, tactically, is reasonably resilient, certainly quite dangerous and seems relatively impervious to losses. Its potency is as a force for influence.”
It is his belief that the only way forward was to find a political solution, which includes the Taliban with whom The Government of President Karzai has launched a reconciliation programme. The principal Taliban commanders are thought to be totally opposed to any compromise. Therefore negotiation efforts could be enhanced with the so-called “tier-two” and “tier-three” Taliban, who are perceived to be less ideologically intransigent. My view is that the Taliban are an enemy that has to be wiped out, as their idea of compromise is to kill you cleanly rather than sadistically.
The brigadier said that in the areas where the Government had no control, the Afghan population was “vulnerable to a shifting coalition of Taliban, mad mullahs and marauding militias”. In other areas, however, progress was being made and children were going back to school. “We are trying to deliver sufficient security for a degree of normalization,” he said.
The British commander said that there was a continuation of the 30-year-old Afghanistan government vacuum, and even now the Kabul Government didn’t view Helmand as a key province. He claimed that there were areas in which the Afghan people were starting to shift their allegiance towards traditional power structures “rather than the shadowy and illegal structures” of the Taliban and the warlords.
Just for the record Brigadier, you might be a good soldier, and you could be a nice chap, but you are certainly a grade A super twit! For my non-British readers a twit is a peculiarly British type of personality, somewhere beyond a fool and not quite a villain. It is defined by the sound of a small bird making a “twittering” sound, which is a little pathetic and somewhat plaintive.
The Brigadier is clearly aware he is about to be replaced or he wouldn’t utter such a defeatist and misleading statement. The truth is that any conflict is winnable with good strategy, well motivated and men and sufficient resources.
It could well be that the government’s refusal of his plea of September 24 to double the number of soldiers he could lead to cope with the increasingly tough fight against the Taliban so aggravated the general that he decided to push his case in this way. He has just got it wrong.
Despite my grave reservations at the Brigadier's tactics in this matter I still thank him, on behalf of us all, for his service and bravery for our country, during this tours of duty. I just wish our solders were as good at talking as they are at fighting.
Monday, October 6, 2008
StopDigging
Today the German leader, Frau Merkel, appears to have broken ranks with her peers in the European Union. Just a couple of days ago in an emergency summit of the major EU economic powers it was agreed that we would act together. Now, it seems, that Germany has decided to follow several smaller European economic powers and issue an unlimited guarantee to its personal bank depositors. This, if true, and right now the lines to Berlin must be buzzing, is another break in the wall against widespread, incipient panic among the central bankers.
To tell the truth, even without this problem, we are looking at such severe forecasts for employment and the economy that these are going to be hard blows for us all to absorb
We are facing about 5 to 10 years of financial rations of bread and water unless we get very lucky. We might have had about all the luck we were due when this collapse in confidence didn't happen about 5 to 10 years previously, when I started to predict it.
The economy being so buoyant was simply a mirage that was maintained by wishful thinking. The reality is we are not making enough stuff and have been pump priming ourselves with the "knowledge economy" or as we call it in the UK, the "creative sector". That element plus the financial sector itself has been propping up the Anglo Saxon economic global success story of the recent past and it was a totally unrealistic expectation that we can maintain ourselves at our present levels of consumption when we don't make much else (in proportion to our economic size) but puff and fluff.
Now, if it is accurate that Germany, Iceland, Ireland and Greece have cut and run by declaring a total guarantee for all the depositors in their banks we have the beginnings of the isolationism that led to the making of the Great Depression. The countries that have not given such blanket guarantees will now have to either do so or go under, or the governments in the countries that haven't will have to force the ones that have to reword those guarantees or we will all get financially slaughtered. This is seriously bad news and they need to get onto it today or the market drop of several percent in the first hour of trading in London just now will look like nothing.
By the way this was a direct breaking of her promise by Frau Merkel the Chancellor of Germany who assured the other major leaders of Europe that she wouldn't take any such action and her implication was that anyone who did was a selfish idiot. Reports indicate that she gave that promise on Saturday. What prompted her to break that promise was the news of later that same day, when Germany's second biggest mortgage bank, Hypo out of Munich, had a rescue package collapse on it. This was "corrected" yesterday at about the same time when Merkel apparently converted to seemingly short sighted and idiotic economic nationalism.
It's like I said to a pal who wanted to go with me to a bank to raise some funding for a good new business, and I said to him that if a bank won't lend to another bank now is not a great time to go seeking a loan, however good the proposition is, and whatever security you can provide. If that is the case, then businesses will start to go bust in big numbers, and these are the small businesses, which supply by far the largest number of jobs in the economy. That sector starting to unravel will cause a concomitant loss of jobs and of course has a knock on negative effect.
Interest rates will therefore be forced down in the short term, and we might well go the way of the Japanese economy in the late 80's through the 90's in which they suffered from stagflation. Let's hope we have learned enough from their experience not to repeat those mistakes.
The solution can only be a total rethink of some parts of our economic model led by international cooperation and some central players of stature. Looking around just now, I think we are in for bigger problems, as I don't see any FDR or Thatcher on the horizon. That doesn't mean we have to agree with every detail, but we need a man (or woman) with a plan, a vision, powerful charisma, and clout to push through radical new ideas to push us out of this huge pile of effluent or we are going to wallow in it for a long time. I hope and pray I am wrong about all of this, but we are now in the hole, and we are still digging,
To tell the truth, even without this problem, we are looking at such severe forecasts for employment and the economy that these are going to be hard blows for us all to absorb
We are facing about 5 to 10 years of financial rations of bread and water unless we get very lucky. We might have had about all the luck we were due when this collapse in confidence didn't happen about 5 to 10 years previously, when I started to predict it.
The economy being so buoyant was simply a mirage that was maintained by wishful thinking. The reality is we are not making enough stuff and have been pump priming ourselves with the "knowledge economy" or as we call it in the UK, the "creative sector". That element plus the financial sector itself has been propping up the Anglo Saxon economic global success story of the recent past and it was a totally unrealistic expectation that we can maintain ourselves at our present levels of consumption when we don't make much else (in proportion to our economic size) but puff and fluff.
Now, if it is accurate that Germany, Iceland, Ireland and Greece have cut and run by declaring a total guarantee for all the depositors in their banks we have the beginnings of the isolationism that led to the making of the Great Depression. The countries that have not given such blanket guarantees will now have to either do so or go under, or the governments in the countries that haven't will have to force the ones that have to reword those guarantees or we will all get financially slaughtered. This is seriously bad news and they need to get onto it today or the market drop of several percent in the first hour of trading in London just now will look like nothing.
By the way this was a direct breaking of her promise by Frau Merkel the Chancellor of Germany who assured the other major leaders of Europe that she wouldn't take any such action and her implication was that anyone who did was a selfish idiot. Reports indicate that she gave that promise on Saturday. What prompted her to break that promise was the news of later that same day, when Germany's second biggest mortgage bank, Hypo out of Munich, had a rescue package collapse on it. This was "corrected" yesterday at about the same time when Merkel apparently converted to seemingly short sighted and idiotic economic nationalism.
It's like I said to a pal who wanted to go with me to a bank to raise some funding for a good new business, and I said to him that if a bank won't lend to another bank now is not a great time to go seeking a loan, however good the proposition is, and whatever security you can provide. If that is the case, then businesses will start to go bust in big numbers, and these are the small businesses, which supply by far the largest number of jobs in the economy. That sector starting to unravel will cause a concomitant loss of jobs and of course has a knock on negative effect.
Interest rates will therefore be forced down in the short term, and we might well go the way of the Japanese economy in the late 80's through the 90's in which they suffered from stagflation. Let's hope we have learned enough from their experience not to repeat those mistakes.
The solution can only be a total rethink of some parts of our economic model led by international cooperation and some central players of stature. Looking around just now, I think we are in for bigger problems, as I don't see any FDR or Thatcher on the horizon. That doesn't mean we have to agree with every detail, but we need a man (or woman) with a plan, a vision, powerful charisma, and clout to push through radical new ideas to push us out of this huge pile of effluent or we are going to wallow in it for a long time. I hope and pray I am wrong about all of this, but we are now in the hole, and we are still digging,
Sunday, October 5, 2008
TheEndlessDrive
Every year, as tradition, duty and love demand, at least once, I drive to a part of south London called Streatham. There I visit the graves of the close members of my family who have passed away. Accompanying me on this tortuous journey is my living family.
It is a terrible drive from the edge of North East London to the other extreme in the South of the city. It takes between nearly two hours to as much as three hours to get there. My late father always believed that the right weather for such a journey is incessant rain and today he got his wish. I am convinced he would be laughing as we stood in the torrential rain visiting his grave and that of the rest of our family.
I recited the ancient prayers in memory of the departed and the rain found every square inch of our formerly dry clothing and turned it into a soggy mess, despite our water proof jackets and umbrellas.
I looked at the ages of my close relatives and realized I am already older than two of them, and approaching the age of several others. I felt like, perhaps I might as well wait for my turn at the cemetery to save my kids the cost of a funeral car. My older sister, who was standing next to me, certainly shouldn’t bother buying any long life batteries.
I noticed that the family plot, owned by my late father, still has space for one of us, but I have decided that his saying, “first come first served!” should hold true, and this is one race I don’t want to win.
Afterwards, in case we were not wet enough, we gossiped about our kids and grand kids, as ever they are an endless source of chat. I wonder if, one day, a long, long time in the future, any of our kids will ever bother making such a pilgrimage to our future burial place. Just for the record kids, that will be at the Cheshunt cemetery, and if you do turn up I do hope it will rain every time you come, as I agree with my dad, it should rain in such a place; and rest assured as you stand there with rain dripping off the end of your noses, I shall be laughing.
There is only one thing worse than the drive to the cemetery, and that is the drive from the cemetery, which seems to take even longer in the impossible and impassible traffic. Home never looked drier or more welcoming; and I believe it will be the same for years to come.
It is a terrible drive from the edge of North East London to the other extreme in the South of the city. It takes between nearly two hours to as much as three hours to get there. My late father always believed that the right weather for such a journey is incessant rain and today he got his wish. I am convinced he would be laughing as we stood in the torrential rain visiting his grave and that of the rest of our family.
I recited the ancient prayers in memory of the departed and the rain found every square inch of our formerly dry clothing and turned it into a soggy mess, despite our water proof jackets and umbrellas.
I looked at the ages of my close relatives and realized I am already older than two of them, and approaching the age of several others. I felt like, perhaps I might as well wait for my turn at the cemetery to save my kids the cost of a funeral car. My older sister, who was standing next to me, certainly shouldn’t bother buying any long life batteries.
I noticed that the family plot, owned by my late father, still has space for one of us, but I have decided that his saying, “first come first served!” should hold true, and this is one race I don’t want to win.
Afterwards, in case we were not wet enough, we gossiped about our kids and grand kids, as ever they are an endless source of chat. I wonder if, one day, a long, long time in the future, any of our kids will ever bother making such a pilgrimage to our future burial place. Just for the record kids, that will be at the Cheshunt cemetery, and if you do turn up I do hope it will rain every time you come, as I agree with my dad, it should rain in such a place; and rest assured as you stand there with rain dripping off the end of your noses, I shall be laughing.
There is only one thing worse than the drive to the cemetery, and that is the drive from the cemetery, which seems to take even longer in the impossible and impassible traffic. Home never looked drier or more welcoming; and I believe it will be the same for years to come.
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