President Bush made a television address to his nation in which he stated that this is the most frightening financial period for nearly eighty years and that the American economy was in grave and imminent danger of a panic that could cause it to shut down.
Today we will discover how true the adage is, “Cometh the hour, cometh the man.” We certainly need to see that man come riding over that Washington hill on his white charger or we all have increased financial problems coming our way in a very short time.
The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffet clearly stated that the politicians have to get behind this plan, he likened the present situation to an economic Pearl Harbor and he’s not a man known for hyperbole.
Time and the situation dictate that should the folks on Capitol Hill turn down the plan on offer they have to come up with a workable alternative immediately. The seizing up of money currently being witnessed inter bank cannot be allowed to continue without it fundamentally damaging the entire market system.
It is vital that Obama and McCain join with the President wholeheartedly and are seen to enthusiastically support the agreed way forward. If not the dissenting voice had better have a great excuse when America’s voters ask them why they let the world financial system crash because of their short-term political gain.
This crisis and raw politics threatened to delay the first presidential debate as John McCain challenged Barack Obama to postpone tonight's television debate and unite to help Washington fix the financial mess. Obama rebuffed his GOP rival, saying the next president needs to "deal with more than one thing at once."
President Bush warned Americans and lawmakers reluctant to pass a $700 billion financial rescue plan that failing to act fast risks wiping out retirement savings, rising foreclosures, lost jobs and closed businesses. "Our entire economy is in danger," he said. In response the financial markets soared Thursday after the President’s talk with the nation.
The stakes cannot be bigger, as the American people are, in effect, being asked to write out a blank cheque to bail out Wall Street from its own mistakes and greed. But there are few viable alternatives other than a total meltdown, which is simply not sustainable and would lead to a worldwide financial catastrophe.
Some results of this danger are already evident when we see that banks have stopped lending to each other and, instead are hoarding their cash. This increases the risks of weaker banks going bust and then the dominoes could all fall down. What we know already is that if a deal is not done financial hell will break lose.
None of us know whether the necessary arrangements are going to be sealed in the coming hours and days but the signs are that the fundamentals of a deal are still to be agreed in Congress and we can only hope that the momentum for it is inescapable.
There is an old saying that when America’s economy sneezes the rest of the world will catch a cold. Right now Wall St. has pneumonia and this could result in a Second financial Great Depression. We must get it right in America, now, for all our sakes, as this outcome must be avoided at all costs.
President Bush called both his potential successors to the White House to help him cement the rescue plan formulated by Henry (Hank) M. Paulson, Jr., Secretary of the Treasury and Ben Bernake, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The immediate result in this fast running comic tragedy was a political impasse.
John McCain offered an alternative last minute plan in which the government does not buy the toxic debts, but offered insurance protection against them. I agree that this plan has merit, but this is arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic as it sinks. We cannot wait until we are under the cold and unforgiving water before we have a workable plan in place, which just needs to work and inspire confidence. We can add bells and whistles later.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
ProphetofDoom
Some say I am a prophet of doom because I make sweeping statements about what I project for our future. Sadly I have to continue in this manner. I was right about the collapse in banking and property prices and the consequences for the economy and I believe I am right about the huge danger Iran poses with its nuclear development program.
Twenty-seven years ago, the world’s media condemned Israel for attacking and destroying an Iraqi nuclear reactor. Years later, many of the same journalists who had condemned Israel admitted that they had been wrong, and that the Israeli attack had been justified, was in fact, essential.
Now, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel "off the map." The fact that the Iranian nuclear program is advancing rapidly necessitates that we take this threat very seriously. At the United Nations on Wednesday, Israel’s President, Shimon Peres correctly called Iran a central obstacle to peace in the Middle East.
Peres called Iran a center of fanaticism, which supports the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, thus preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. He went on to state that Iran was still developing a nuclear capacity.
“Tehran combines long-range missiles and short-range minds,” Peres said. “It is pregnant with tragedies. The General Assembly and the Security Council bear responsibility to prevent agonies before they take place.”
Peres' speech followed one day after that by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking from the same podium, called Zionists “murderers” who manipulate global finance and politics to serve their “acquisitive” interests.
In case there is any doubt I want to make it clear that I am stating for the record that this is a thinly disguised anti Semitic attack linking the Jewish people with the global financial meltdown. Not since the Nazi party and their blood libels has their been a better spokesman for pure hatred of the Jews than this disastrous leader of the once noble country of Iran.
I watched the Iranian leader smile as he addressed the distinguished forum whilst most countries gave him a respectful audience. Until you listen to what he is saying it is easy to get lulled into a sense of unreality, in which his apologists say he doesn’t really mean the more extreme of his utterances. The facts don’t bear that argument out. He means precisely what he says.
It is a disgrace to Iran and to the human race that this person is allowed to address an international forum dedicated to peace and truth and make such slanderous attacks with impunity. People initially laughed at Hitler and ignored what he said and wrote. It was one of history’s great mistakes. Let us not repeat that tragedy, we must heed the Iranian leaders’ words very carefully because he means them and as a consequence the world must act against him before he causes the greatest catastrophe of all.
Peres went on to urge neighbour Syria to engage in face-to-face peace talks following the example set by Egypt and Jordan, both of which have concluded peace agreements with Israel. He went on to predict that peace with the Palestinians would be achieved within the coming year.
Concluding his remarks, Peres donned a kipah and recited a prayer for peace in Hebrew and English.
While diplomatic efforts, and some prayers, continue to try and stop the Iranian nuclear program, Israel has repeatedly stated that all options for stopping Iran are on the table, and this includes military force.
It would be refreshing to believe that the media learnt from their mistakes in 1981 when they misjudged the Iraqi nuclear threat to Israel and what the response should have been. Many journalists and opinion makers appear to have forgotten that lesson and are stupidly shaping public opinion by condemning any possible Israeli strike on Iran.
Israel and the other democracies have a duty to ignore these fools and put a stop to this threat from Iran, which is real and moving closer every day.
I’m sorry to upset those of you who think the world’s present financial difficulties are our biggest problem, because that is a huge, frightening issue, but it is dwarfed by the danger posed by Iran. If the World does not act Israel will have to do so in self-defence.
Unless he is stopped, Ahmadinejad plans to wipe Israel off the face of the world’s maps and to kill every Jewish man, woman and child in that country as soon as he is able. We must not remain silent; to be silent makes us all accomplices of a man aiming to lead a new holocaust.
Twenty-seven years ago, the world’s media condemned Israel for attacking and destroying an Iraqi nuclear reactor. Years later, many of the same journalists who had condemned Israel admitted that they had been wrong, and that the Israeli attack had been justified, was in fact, essential.
Now, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel "off the map." The fact that the Iranian nuclear program is advancing rapidly necessitates that we take this threat very seriously. At the United Nations on Wednesday, Israel’s President, Shimon Peres correctly called Iran a central obstacle to peace in the Middle East.
Peres called Iran a center of fanaticism, which supports the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, thus preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. He went on to state that Iran was still developing a nuclear capacity.
“Tehran combines long-range missiles and short-range minds,” Peres said. “It is pregnant with tragedies. The General Assembly and the Security Council bear responsibility to prevent agonies before they take place.”
Peres' speech followed one day after that by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking from the same podium, called Zionists “murderers” who manipulate global finance and politics to serve their “acquisitive” interests.
In case there is any doubt I want to make it clear that I am stating for the record that this is a thinly disguised anti Semitic attack linking the Jewish people with the global financial meltdown. Not since the Nazi party and their blood libels has their been a better spokesman for pure hatred of the Jews than this disastrous leader of the once noble country of Iran.
I watched the Iranian leader smile as he addressed the distinguished forum whilst most countries gave him a respectful audience. Until you listen to what he is saying it is easy to get lulled into a sense of unreality, in which his apologists say he doesn’t really mean the more extreme of his utterances. The facts don’t bear that argument out. He means precisely what he says.
It is a disgrace to Iran and to the human race that this person is allowed to address an international forum dedicated to peace and truth and make such slanderous attacks with impunity. People initially laughed at Hitler and ignored what he said and wrote. It was one of history’s great mistakes. Let us not repeat that tragedy, we must heed the Iranian leaders’ words very carefully because he means them and as a consequence the world must act against him before he causes the greatest catastrophe of all.
Peres went on to urge neighbour Syria to engage in face-to-face peace talks following the example set by Egypt and Jordan, both of which have concluded peace agreements with Israel. He went on to predict that peace with the Palestinians would be achieved within the coming year.
Concluding his remarks, Peres donned a kipah and recited a prayer for peace in Hebrew and English.
While diplomatic efforts, and some prayers, continue to try and stop the Iranian nuclear program, Israel has repeatedly stated that all options for stopping Iran are on the table, and this includes military force.
It would be refreshing to believe that the media learnt from their mistakes in 1981 when they misjudged the Iraqi nuclear threat to Israel and what the response should have been. Many journalists and opinion makers appear to have forgotten that lesson and are stupidly shaping public opinion by condemning any possible Israeli strike on Iran.
Israel and the other democracies have a duty to ignore these fools and put a stop to this threat from Iran, which is real and moving closer every day.
I’m sorry to upset those of you who think the world’s present financial difficulties are our biggest problem, because that is a huge, frightening issue, but it is dwarfed by the danger posed by Iran. If the World does not act Israel will have to do so in self-defence.
Unless he is stopped, Ahmadinejad plans to wipe Israel off the face of the world’s maps and to kill every Jewish man, woman and child in that country as soon as he is able. We must not remain silent; to be silent makes us all accomplices of a man aiming to lead a new holocaust.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
QuestionsAnswers
Yesterday at the Labour Party conference in the UK there was a make or break speech by the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. He wasn’t broken, but he wasn’t necessarily made.
His wife, Sarah, preceded the P.M. at the rostrum and she drew a standing ovation for her guts before she said a word, she lends him the humanity and warmth he finds hard to deliver. She says she asked to speak so that she could say how proud she is that her husband is motivated each and every day to work on behalf of all the people of the country, she showed a brief film that showed some of the Party’s claimed success over the last years of the Labour government.
By the time his wife had shown the pep rally type film with pop music pumping the cheers were ringing out. Suddenly the mood was warm and it was like something pent up had burst in favour of the Prime Minister, and he clearly enjoyed the major standing ovation, which was elongated and genuine before he spoke.
The hall was absolutely packed and buzzing with anticipation. The crowd demanded to know what the tone and vision would be for the next year or two.
The gossip before the speech was pretty downbeat apart from the professional cheerleaders. The more thoughtful Labour Party supporters were keen to rally behind their leader as he leads them toward the next general elections.
I will tell you “Who I am, what I believe, and what I can lead this country to achieve, I know the people have concerns about the future of this country”, Brown stated with more passion and flair than he usually displays, “A fair Britain for the new age!” he promised his audience, when the present global financial meltdown is sorted out.
As Brown said, “When I was first standing for election in Fife 25 years ago it was to serve the country I love.” And the message was clear, he still does feel the same drive and energy, he continued,” If people accuse me of being too serious well let me say there is a great deal to be serious about.”
Then he trotted out some very obvious but long cherished New Labour Party principles, “Every child should have a good school” and “We are, we remain and we will be in the future, pro business and pro enterprise. At all times we will put people first.”
He then took a clear side swipe at his Conservative rival leader, David Cameron, “My children aren’t props, they’re people.” He made this statement in light of the fact that Cameron has shown his family eating breakfast on his web site and apparently Brown has refused to use his family this way. In this context it is very strange that Brown saw no contradiction in his allowing Sarah, his wife, to introduce his speech.
Brown then made a more interesting statement with which I agree entirely, “It’s now the global age, we haven’t seen anything like this since the industrial age began. What happened in the last week will be studied by generations to come.”
Then came his promise for what he called the New Settlement, and which many years ago, a great American President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, during the Depression, called The New Deal. He wants to rebuild the world financial system around four clear principles. These are 1. Transparency on all transactions 2. Sound banking 3. Responsibility for your actions, so that if a financial institution cannot use as an excuse that they didn’t know the risk they were running and walk away from it. 4. Integrity, bonuses must not be for short-term gain but for long-term success, hard work and effort. These must be Global standards and this demands global supervision.
He added that we must end the dictatorship of oil and move to an 80% cut in the UK’s carbon emissions by 2050 working towards the lessening of climate change.
At approximately the same time the leaders of the American financial system were facing their political masters in Congressional committee. Their task was quite simply to sell their package of measures to some deeply cynical politicians on both sides of the spectrum.
Right wing Republicans feel, with some truth, that the proposed financial rescue package is almost socialist in nature, leaving, as it does, huge swathes of the American economy publicly owned and controlled. They labeled this Un-American, and it is. That doesn’t mean it isn’t the right thing to do. A National Health Service and Gun Control would also be considered Un-American in this definition, but would be greatly welcomed by many equally patriotic Americans.
The more left leaning Democrats on the committee don’t think the measures go far enough and would like to see punishments and penalties and yet more regulations imposed on the financial birds of prey they consider guilty of dragging us all into this financial quagmire. Again they have a point to consider, but more regulation will only drive more financial control away from Wall St. and off shore to rivals eager to snap up the business.
We can only hope that everyone realizes, in time, it is probably right to have a package of rescue measures somewhere down the middle. We need to see these measures moving forward before the weekend. The markets will react very badly to prolonged political indecision that they simply don’t comprehend.
I am not partisan, but I do know that it is essential that we all support our present leaders through this present situation. The present crisis transcends petty differences and we need the leaders we have to see us through these problems for the sake of our entire planet.
“Fairness is in our DNA,” said Brown, during his excellent and rousing speech that ended this part of a very difficult week. For the first time in a long while the Prime Minister took the battle to the Conservatives. This was a real Labour speech from a real Labour leader.
Brown will continue the UK’s huge public spending programme because he believe in it and he in a future for a British century and he is determined it will be. He claimed his Party’s government has been responsible for 1 million new businesses, 3 million new jobs and 1 million people benefiting from a minimum wage, and all of this he humanized very effectively.
In the bubble of love that is a Party Conference this speech was considered a huge success from a man who came out of his corner ready to fight. “We don’t give in and we never will!” was Brown’s keynote message, and we all need some of this fighting spirit to be employed on our behalf by all our leaders in the biggest economic battle we have ever faced.
His wife, Sarah, preceded the P.M. at the rostrum and she drew a standing ovation for her guts before she said a word, she lends him the humanity and warmth he finds hard to deliver. She says she asked to speak so that she could say how proud she is that her husband is motivated each and every day to work on behalf of all the people of the country, she showed a brief film that showed some of the Party’s claimed success over the last years of the Labour government.
By the time his wife had shown the pep rally type film with pop music pumping the cheers were ringing out. Suddenly the mood was warm and it was like something pent up had burst in favour of the Prime Minister, and he clearly enjoyed the major standing ovation, which was elongated and genuine before he spoke.
The hall was absolutely packed and buzzing with anticipation. The crowd demanded to know what the tone and vision would be for the next year or two.
The gossip before the speech was pretty downbeat apart from the professional cheerleaders. The more thoughtful Labour Party supporters were keen to rally behind their leader as he leads them toward the next general elections.
I will tell you “Who I am, what I believe, and what I can lead this country to achieve, I know the people have concerns about the future of this country”, Brown stated with more passion and flair than he usually displays, “A fair Britain for the new age!” he promised his audience, when the present global financial meltdown is sorted out.
As Brown said, “When I was first standing for election in Fife 25 years ago it was to serve the country I love.” And the message was clear, he still does feel the same drive and energy, he continued,” If people accuse me of being too serious well let me say there is a great deal to be serious about.”
Then he trotted out some very obvious but long cherished New Labour Party principles, “Every child should have a good school” and “We are, we remain and we will be in the future, pro business and pro enterprise. At all times we will put people first.”
He then took a clear side swipe at his Conservative rival leader, David Cameron, “My children aren’t props, they’re people.” He made this statement in light of the fact that Cameron has shown his family eating breakfast on his web site and apparently Brown has refused to use his family this way. In this context it is very strange that Brown saw no contradiction in his allowing Sarah, his wife, to introduce his speech.
Brown then made a more interesting statement with which I agree entirely, “It’s now the global age, we haven’t seen anything like this since the industrial age began. What happened in the last week will be studied by generations to come.”
Then came his promise for what he called the New Settlement, and which many years ago, a great American President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, during the Depression, called The New Deal. He wants to rebuild the world financial system around four clear principles. These are 1. Transparency on all transactions 2. Sound banking 3. Responsibility for your actions, so that if a financial institution cannot use as an excuse that they didn’t know the risk they were running and walk away from it. 4. Integrity, bonuses must not be for short-term gain but for long-term success, hard work and effort. These must be Global standards and this demands global supervision.
He added that we must end the dictatorship of oil and move to an 80% cut in the UK’s carbon emissions by 2050 working towards the lessening of climate change.
At approximately the same time the leaders of the American financial system were facing their political masters in Congressional committee. Their task was quite simply to sell their package of measures to some deeply cynical politicians on both sides of the spectrum.
Right wing Republicans feel, with some truth, that the proposed financial rescue package is almost socialist in nature, leaving, as it does, huge swathes of the American economy publicly owned and controlled. They labeled this Un-American, and it is. That doesn’t mean it isn’t the right thing to do. A National Health Service and Gun Control would also be considered Un-American in this definition, but would be greatly welcomed by many equally patriotic Americans.
The more left leaning Democrats on the committee don’t think the measures go far enough and would like to see punishments and penalties and yet more regulations imposed on the financial birds of prey they consider guilty of dragging us all into this financial quagmire. Again they have a point to consider, but more regulation will only drive more financial control away from Wall St. and off shore to rivals eager to snap up the business.
We can only hope that everyone realizes, in time, it is probably right to have a package of rescue measures somewhere down the middle. We need to see these measures moving forward before the weekend. The markets will react very badly to prolonged political indecision that they simply don’t comprehend.
I am not partisan, but I do know that it is essential that we all support our present leaders through this present situation. The present crisis transcends petty differences and we need the leaders we have to see us through these problems for the sake of our entire planet.
“Fairness is in our DNA,” said Brown, during his excellent and rousing speech that ended this part of a very difficult week. For the first time in a long while the Prime Minister took the battle to the Conservatives. This was a real Labour speech from a real Labour leader.
Brown will continue the UK’s huge public spending programme because he believe in it and he in a future for a British century and he is determined it will be. He claimed his Party’s government has been responsible for 1 million new businesses, 3 million new jobs and 1 million people benefiting from a minimum wage, and all of this he humanized very effectively.
In the bubble of love that is a Party Conference this speech was considered a huge success from a man who came out of his corner ready to fight. “We don’t give in and we never will!” was Brown’s keynote message, and we all need some of this fighting spirit to be employed on our behalf by all our leaders in the biggest economic battle we have ever faced.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
FindingFinancialSolutions
Presently in the USA a man called Hank Paulson has possibly the most influential job in the world. He is the man putting together the plans to bail out the economy of his country, and from there, we all hope, that of the world.
The first step, already stage managed by his boss, President Bush, was to restore some faith in the system. This was achieved, simply, by showing some true grit in the face of the oncoming storm. Letting the global economy know that America was determined to act in economic self- defense was the first, vital step in saving our collective fall over the precipice into a financial void.
I was talking to an economist and she said something very wise to me, to the effect that any measure at any cost was better than the disaster we were about to suffer. I believe she was right, but as I said to her, there would be a cost, but none of us can know how huge it might be.
Hank Paulson is not a well-known figure, and he is under enormous pressure to do this impossible job and get it right. However like the curate’s egg, it’s likely that the result will be good in parts. The inevitable consequence of the last few weeks and months is that aspects of laissez faire capitalism will never be the same again, and maybe that’s just as it should be.
However, with the back door, but essential nationalization of Northern Rock in the UK and Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG in the USA, the re-alignment of big banking and the federal plan to buy non performing or toxic debts we face a very different future. The government of the USA now owns more than half of all mortgages in the USA. In the UK we used to call such a scenario “socialism: red in tooth and claw”. It’s hard to imagine that America is now in this situation.
At the Labour Party conference in the UK there are calls for the re-nationalization of the formerly publicly owned energy utility companies and a well received call for more legislation and regulation of the City institutions considered guilty, via their short term greed, of getting us all into this financial mess. It begins to sound like the bad old days that preceded New Labour, and supporters should remember, their Party was unelectable.
In the USA the Democratic party were holding up the necessary legislation so that the details of the financial bailout could be better considered. This could be a huge political error however right they might be within the context of the tactical details. The global community, especially the financial section of it, demands immediate action, and won’t understand or sympathize with anything that holds this up. The market in the States almost immediately crashed in reaction and the dollar plummeted against a basket of currencies. This is not the time for politics as normal!
The first step, already stage managed by his boss, President Bush, was to restore some faith in the system. This was achieved, simply, by showing some true grit in the face of the oncoming storm. Letting the global economy know that America was determined to act in economic self- defense was the first, vital step in saving our collective fall over the precipice into a financial void.
I was talking to an economist and she said something very wise to me, to the effect that any measure at any cost was better than the disaster we were about to suffer. I believe she was right, but as I said to her, there would be a cost, but none of us can know how huge it might be.
Hank Paulson is not a well-known figure, and he is under enormous pressure to do this impossible job and get it right. However like the curate’s egg, it’s likely that the result will be good in parts. The inevitable consequence of the last few weeks and months is that aspects of laissez faire capitalism will never be the same again, and maybe that’s just as it should be.
However, with the back door, but essential nationalization of Northern Rock in the UK and Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG in the USA, the re-alignment of big banking and the federal plan to buy non performing or toxic debts we face a very different future. The government of the USA now owns more than half of all mortgages in the USA. In the UK we used to call such a scenario “socialism: red in tooth and claw”. It’s hard to imagine that America is now in this situation.
At the Labour Party conference in the UK there are calls for the re-nationalization of the formerly publicly owned energy utility companies and a well received call for more legislation and regulation of the City institutions considered guilty, via their short term greed, of getting us all into this financial mess. It begins to sound like the bad old days that preceded New Labour, and supporters should remember, their Party was unelectable.
In the USA the Democratic party were holding up the necessary legislation so that the details of the financial bailout could be better considered. This could be a huge political error however right they might be within the context of the tactical details. The global community, especially the financial section of it, demands immediate action, and won’t understand or sympathize with anything that holds this up. The market in the States almost immediately crashed in reaction and the dollar plummeted against a basket of currencies. This is not the time for politics as normal!
Monday, September 22, 2008
FinancialSurvival
Hold the presses, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown apologized. This is not something anyone can remember, and it was a little frightening.
This might well be the beginning of the end game for the Prime Minister’s loosening grip on his seal of office. Looking more relaxed than has been the case in the recent past he even smiled at some of the forceful questioning he was confronted with during several tough interview sessions over the last couple of days.
I think he’s smiling because he knows how desperate his political situation has become and realizing that the game is up has at last relaxed with the shrug of the shoulders a person about to get executed might display.
Perversely Brown is much more likeable when he relaxes and has a script he’s happy with. That script is based around the hypothesis that his government has done a great, solid, dependable job, that the problems are global and therefore the solution has to also be global but that the UK is singularly well placed to recover.
The British Labour Party is holding its annual conference in Manchester, England this week. It is sandwiched between the Liberal-Democrats and the Conservatives and usually it heralds the announcement of new initiatives, fresh beginnings and re-launches. This time around Gordon Brown will be thrilled to come out in one piece.
“I want to do better”, Gordon Brown said; admittedly he couldn’t do much worse in the eyes of most of the population. He went on to say, “I always want to do better. My school motto was, I must try my utmost”. This is the first time many of us can remember Mister Brown ever admitting that he is fallible so openly.
This is a testing time and no one yet knows whether Gordon Brown is made of the right stuff to pass that test. He is going to find it very difficult to convince the country that he will pull the nation through,
The crisis is in the Labour leadership according to Charles Clarke, a former Senior Minister, and no friend of his old adversary, is Brown himself. Clarke’s view is that he believes the leader must resign to give the party and the nation a leadership it will believe in. Or put it another way; give Labour a chance to recover in time for the election after next, as he has already written off his Party’s chances for the next contest.
The doubters will have their say, but at the conference there are more that will back him this week than not. Brown is clearly correct about one thing, this is a global crisis, not of his or Britain’s making. He will make it though this week, and to be honest the nation and the world needs stolid men like this right now.
Within the Labour Party there is no credible threat to Brown’s leadership, but this doesn’t mean there won’t be a threat to it after the conference. Right now no one is going to put his or her head over the parapet; but the time will come.
Next on the firing line was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling who appeared on this morning’s breakfast television. He still hasn’t worked out that his cause would be better served by his acquiring rudimentary communication skills. He is awful at the most basic question and answer technique without which modern politicians cannot survive.
The rather gentle interviewer on GMTV asked Darling 4 times whether he would rule out tax increases to pay for the present difficulties and he would not utter the words, “Yes” or “No”.
Quite clearly he cannot give an absolute reply right now, and he would be wrong to do so, but couldn’t he just say, “We have a problem, and I’ll do my best to keep taxes down but honestly no one knows the answer to that question just yet.”
I am not sure whether Brown and Darling’s recent pronouncements mean that they were not aware of the kinds of trades being undertaken and consequential bonuses given over the last few years in the City of London, or whether they were aware, and simply thought them OK. Either way they are culpable, probably to a greater extent if they knew and did nothing and are hypocritically now blaming their former City cronies.
Watching these two men, who run our country you are not filled with confidence and this is ironic since their performance improved since the Northern Rock fiasco. They seem to have been consistently in advance of their American colleagues reaction, which has been a bit too slow at times.
The economic and political price of the actions being taken at both edges of the Atlantic Anglo-Saxon financial world are yet to be known, but the price for inaction would have been catastrophic and unthinkable. The end game is still cloudy and undecided but there might be a glimmer of light if everyone now remembers the route to financial survival is to hold his or her nerve.
This might well be the beginning of the end game for the Prime Minister’s loosening grip on his seal of office. Looking more relaxed than has been the case in the recent past he even smiled at some of the forceful questioning he was confronted with during several tough interview sessions over the last couple of days.
I think he’s smiling because he knows how desperate his political situation has become and realizing that the game is up has at last relaxed with the shrug of the shoulders a person about to get executed might display.
Perversely Brown is much more likeable when he relaxes and has a script he’s happy with. That script is based around the hypothesis that his government has done a great, solid, dependable job, that the problems are global and therefore the solution has to also be global but that the UK is singularly well placed to recover.
The British Labour Party is holding its annual conference in Manchester, England this week. It is sandwiched between the Liberal-Democrats and the Conservatives and usually it heralds the announcement of new initiatives, fresh beginnings and re-launches. This time around Gordon Brown will be thrilled to come out in one piece.
“I want to do better”, Gordon Brown said; admittedly he couldn’t do much worse in the eyes of most of the population. He went on to say, “I always want to do better. My school motto was, I must try my utmost”. This is the first time many of us can remember Mister Brown ever admitting that he is fallible so openly.
This is a testing time and no one yet knows whether Gordon Brown is made of the right stuff to pass that test. He is going to find it very difficult to convince the country that he will pull the nation through,
The crisis is in the Labour leadership according to Charles Clarke, a former Senior Minister, and no friend of his old adversary, is Brown himself. Clarke’s view is that he believes the leader must resign to give the party and the nation a leadership it will believe in. Or put it another way; give Labour a chance to recover in time for the election after next, as he has already written off his Party’s chances for the next contest.
The doubters will have their say, but at the conference there are more that will back him this week than not. Brown is clearly correct about one thing, this is a global crisis, not of his or Britain’s making. He will make it though this week, and to be honest the nation and the world needs stolid men like this right now.
Within the Labour Party there is no credible threat to Brown’s leadership, but this doesn’t mean there won’t be a threat to it after the conference. Right now no one is going to put his or her head over the parapet; but the time will come.
Next on the firing line was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling who appeared on this morning’s breakfast television. He still hasn’t worked out that his cause would be better served by his acquiring rudimentary communication skills. He is awful at the most basic question and answer technique without which modern politicians cannot survive.
The rather gentle interviewer on GMTV asked Darling 4 times whether he would rule out tax increases to pay for the present difficulties and he would not utter the words, “Yes” or “No”.
Quite clearly he cannot give an absolute reply right now, and he would be wrong to do so, but couldn’t he just say, “We have a problem, and I’ll do my best to keep taxes down but honestly no one knows the answer to that question just yet.”
I am not sure whether Brown and Darling’s recent pronouncements mean that they were not aware of the kinds of trades being undertaken and consequential bonuses given over the last few years in the City of London, or whether they were aware, and simply thought them OK. Either way they are culpable, probably to a greater extent if they knew and did nothing and are hypocritically now blaming their former City cronies.
Watching these two men, who run our country you are not filled with confidence and this is ironic since their performance improved since the Northern Rock fiasco. They seem to have been consistently in advance of their American colleagues reaction, which has been a bit too slow at times.
The economic and political price of the actions being taken at both edges of the Atlantic Anglo-Saxon financial world are yet to be known, but the price for inaction would have been catastrophic and unthinkable. The end game is still cloudy and undecided but there might be a glimmer of light if everyone now remembers the route to financial survival is to hold his or her nerve.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
PakistanTerrorism
Last night in Islamabad, Pakistan there was another horrendous bombing. This time the target for the terrorists is the Marriott hotel that managed to kill more than fifty people and injure hundreds more, many of them critically.
There were security barriers in operation at this hotel, favorite of the rich and powerful of Pakistan and foreign visitors. This is the third major attack of Marriott hotels in the city.
It is no accident that this attack happened in the same period when the new Pakistani government was pledging itself to combating terrorism in the country.
Neither the local Taliban or Al Qaeda have yet claimed responsibility for this evil and cowardly attack on civilians but surely incidents like this will cause Pakistan to get off the fence and decide how they see their future.
It’s a probability that attacks like this one will cause one of two results in this blighted country. Either there will be a craven caving in to the terrorist organizations or they will choose to fight so that they are not swallowed by events. But this would be a huge mistake; for if they do give in they will eventually lose control of their own country and destiny.
It is legitimate to question whether everyone in each department of the government and its agencies shared the Pakistani government’s avowed combative stance against terrorist organizations. There are many question marks over some of the actions of the Pakistani intelligence agencies when dealing with these groups.
The relationship of the Western powers with Pakistan remains somewhat ambiguous and will do so until it is believed that they are a trustworthy regime. At the moment question marks remain over their underlying attitude to the terrorist groups, how they handle their nuclear weapons and how they act towards the combatants from the Afghanistan war who they allow to simply slip across their border for training, supplies and rest and recreation.
There has long been an official Pakistani blind eye turned to the regions running through the blurred lines of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, peopled on both side by the Pathan people. The Pakistani authorities would do well to remember that you can’t dine with the devil, the price is poisonous and will kill.
There were security barriers in operation at this hotel, favorite of the rich and powerful of Pakistan and foreign visitors. This is the third major attack of Marriott hotels in the city.
It is no accident that this attack happened in the same period when the new Pakistani government was pledging itself to combating terrorism in the country.
Neither the local Taliban or Al Qaeda have yet claimed responsibility for this evil and cowardly attack on civilians but surely incidents like this will cause Pakistan to get off the fence and decide how they see their future.
It’s a probability that attacks like this one will cause one of two results in this blighted country. Either there will be a craven caving in to the terrorist organizations or they will choose to fight so that they are not swallowed by events. But this would be a huge mistake; for if they do give in they will eventually lose control of their own country and destiny.
It is legitimate to question whether everyone in each department of the government and its agencies shared the Pakistani government’s avowed combative stance against terrorist organizations. There are many question marks over some of the actions of the Pakistani intelligence agencies when dealing with these groups.
The relationship of the Western powers with Pakistan remains somewhat ambiguous and will do so until it is believed that they are a trustworthy regime. At the moment question marks remain over their underlying attitude to the terrorist groups, how they handle their nuclear weapons and how they act towards the combatants from the Afghanistan war who they allow to simply slip across their border for training, supplies and rest and recreation.
There has long been an official Pakistani blind eye turned to the regions running through the blurred lines of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, peopled on both side by the Pathan people. The Pakistani authorities would do well to remember that you can’t dine with the devil, the price is poisonous and will kill.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
WheretheMoneyWillComeFrom
This is a very brief but pointed blog. The US Federal government yesterday announced that they were working on a plan to buy toxic and worthless debt from the American banks struggling under a mountain of the poisonous paper.
This will cost many hundreds of billions of dollars.
Putting this into context, this month the American government had its defense budget, for $612.5 billion waved through the legislature.
There are innumerable other costs mounting up for America that are beginning to look insupportable.
I have one question, where is all this money going to come from?
If the Feds print it we will end up with runaway inflation, which could ruin the lives of future generation.
If they borrow the necessary funds we will find ourselves owing money overseas, where it would have to come from potential foes in Asia and Arabia. We cannot be in hock to people who could pressure us to do things against our long term, strategic interests.
If the decision is to raise the money through taxing us we will be crippled by the size of the debt.
Unquestionably the announcement by President Bush that the Feds were going to take this action did relieve some of the huge anxiety that had built up in the stock markets of the world but we do need to question where the money is going to come from and what are the long term ramifications of this probably essential action.
You can’t help believe that this might well be the long heralded beginning of the end of America as the key financial superpower. Maybe the baton is being reluctantly pried from America’s grasp by hungrier, richer, more successful Asian powers. This would result in the USA and possibly the EU, being relegated from a long held and easy assumption of pre-eminence.
There is no doubt that when a country’s financial muscles atrophy and fail it’s military and political dominance will also wither to a similar extent.
Therefore, unless the Western powers are ready to abdicate their long held hegemony they will have to do more than survive, they have to find a way to prosper. That is going to prove extremely difficult.
This will cost many hundreds of billions of dollars.
Putting this into context, this month the American government had its defense budget, for $612.5 billion waved through the legislature.
There are innumerable other costs mounting up for America that are beginning to look insupportable.
I have one question, where is all this money going to come from?
If the Feds print it we will end up with runaway inflation, which could ruin the lives of future generation.
If they borrow the necessary funds we will find ourselves owing money overseas, where it would have to come from potential foes in Asia and Arabia. We cannot be in hock to people who could pressure us to do things against our long term, strategic interests.
If the decision is to raise the money through taxing us we will be crippled by the size of the debt.
Unquestionably the announcement by President Bush that the Feds were going to take this action did relieve some of the huge anxiety that had built up in the stock markets of the world but we do need to question where the money is going to come from and what are the long term ramifications of this probably essential action.
You can’t help believe that this might well be the long heralded beginning of the end of America as the key financial superpower. Maybe the baton is being reluctantly pried from America’s grasp by hungrier, richer, more successful Asian powers. This would result in the USA and possibly the EU, being relegated from a long held and easy assumption of pre-eminence.
There is no doubt that when a country’s financial muscles atrophy and fail it’s military and political dominance will also wither to a similar extent.
Therefore, unless the Western powers are ready to abdicate their long held hegemony they will have to do more than survive, they have to find a way to prosper. That is going to prove extremely difficult.
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