Today in South Pasadena Klinger family members from three continents, myself amongst them, met for the first time since 1915. Cousins, from 5 to 80 something years old met, some for the first time during the get together. We delved into our common past. About 100 years ago my father’s family journeyed from the Russian Tsar’s empire in Poland to England.
Different, exotic and colorful stories abound. We found one picture that was common to our British, American and Australian family branches. It was of four young men, one young woman, two small children and one old lady. They are all staring at the camera very intently. They are dressed in formal attire, the men resplendently displaying fine moustaches. When I first saw the picture I thought it was a joke. How had someone photo shopped me into a picture from nearly a century ago? But it turns out that I share a face with my previously unknown great uncle. Of course he is a particularly fine figure of a man. Actually my grandfather, staring confidently at the camera, is the best looking man in the picture, and I don’t look much like him. I will write more fully about this in the future.
We then started to talk with each other and old family histories were unearthed and old journeys re-trod. There was a fine picture of my uncle Max in the uniform of the Imperial Russian Army. He looks very snappy but there is another truth. I well remember my Poppa Gershon telling me how his brother, the man in the picture, was ruthlessly beaten by his Russian commanders on a regular basis, purely because he was Jewish. It was because of his treatment that his family re-considered where they should live. In those far off days the Imperial army took one brother at a time into the army. When one came back the next had to take his place, unless he was killed earlier. Apparently his tormentors permanently injured my great uncle and the decision was made to leave.
Therefore, in some twisted grand design my great uncle’s maltreatment meant that we could all meet in Pasadena. With more benign treatment I suspect that there was a very good chance the family would have stayed in the Polish part of the Russian Empire. If we had done so about thirty years later the invading Nazis would have decimated my father’s family.
I say this with some certainty because it did happen to my father’s mother’s side of our family, the Weisberg’s (I guess it could be spelt Weissberg) of Warsaw. Sixty-three of them were murdered in the Holocaust. According to our family story my grandmother, Dora, returned to her native Poland with my father, then a small boy, before the war, to try and get her family to leave. She was only able to convince one sister. That sister agreed to make the journey to England with her two children, but their application for papers was refused. They are all lost to us now. That family will never enjoy a sunny reunion anywhere as there are none of them to meet.
Ironically today is Holocaust Memorial Day. Although I am not religious I shall go to the ceremony in the nearby park and offer up a prayer for those that were lost in my family, the Weisberg’s, and millions of other families. I fell I have to do it for my late grandmother as there is no one else to do so.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Economics Made Easy
Today I can be brief because I am borrowing some material from others. First is some computational work from my friend, Roy Wilkinson. He is, by training, employment and education a top flight, British engineer. As my late father was also a British engineer I revere such ability. You should know that anything such men say should be treated as accurate and well considered.
“Governments Gaining From the Misery
You might wish to write about the cuts, as in slice, that governments are getting from the rise in the price of crude oil. I have just done a study of Matthew’s gas bills as he seems to be paying over the odds. Anyway, gas prices have been going up for some time, 47% in a year, but just looking at the January v. April bills is quite interesting.
The unit cost of gas, i.e. cents per therm charged to the consumer, has gone up 30% thru’ Feb, March and April, but interestingly the commodity price paid by the gas company has gone cost up by 40%. That means that the company is absorbing part of the increase. In actual fact their markup has dropped from 37 to 28%, their standing charge has stayed the same as have the state reg. fee and the public surcharge as increased only marginally.
The ‘sinner’ in the woodpile is however the LA city users tax which having stayed at 10% is enjoying a 25% increase in its share of the overall bill.
The same thing is happening across the board in the UK particularly with the 5% vat (value added tax) on domestic energy.
Governments are frightened of inflation yet they are fueling it. Forgive the pun.“
I leave you to draw your own conclusions, mine are that things are, very often, not what they appear to be.
On a lighter note I received the following “laws of economics” by another friend. I don’t know who composed them originally although I am totally convinced that they are accurate and I doff my hat to their anonymous author, obviously a genius!
Economic Models explained with cows- 2008 update
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows.
You give one to your neighbour.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and gives you some milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and sells you some milk.
NAZISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and shoots you.
BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the
milk away...
TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell one and buy a bull.
Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.
SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.
The government requires you to take harmonica lessons
AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows.
Later, you hire a consultant to analyse why the cow has dropped dead.
ENRON VENTURE CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of
credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a
debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all
four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.
The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a
Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who
sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.
The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on
one more.
You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States, leaving
you with nine cows.
No balance sheet provided with the release.
The public then buys your bull.
THE ANDERSEN MODEL
You have two cows.
You shred them.
A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You go on strike, organise a riot, and block the roads, because you want
three cows.
A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and
produce twenty times the milk.
You then create a clever cow cartoon image called 'Cowkimon' and market
it worldwide.
A GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows
You re-engineer them so they live for 100 years, eat once a month, and
milk themselves.
AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You decide to have lunch.
A RUSSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You count them and learn you have five cows.
You count them again and learn you have 42 cows.
You count them again and learn you have 2 cows.
You stop counting cows and open another bottle of vodka.
A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you.
You charge the owners for storing them.
A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You have 300 people milking them.
You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity.
You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.
AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You worship them.
A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Both are mad.
AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows.
You tell them that you have none.
No-one believes you, so they bomb the **** out of you and invade your
country.
You still have no cows, but at least now you are part of a Democracy....
AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Business seems pretty good.
You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows.
The one on the left looks very attractive.
“Governments Gaining From the Misery
You might wish to write about the cuts, as in slice, that governments are getting from the rise in the price of crude oil. I have just done a study of Matthew’s gas bills as he seems to be paying over the odds. Anyway, gas prices have been going up for some time, 47% in a year, but just looking at the January v. April bills is quite interesting.
The unit cost of gas, i.e. cents per therm charged to the consumer, has gone up 30% thru’ Feb, March and April, but interestingly the commodity price paid by the gas company has gone cost up by 40%. That means that the company is absorbing part of the increase. In actual fact their markup has dropped from 37 to 28%, their standing charge has stayed the same as have the state reg. fee and the public surcharge as increased only marginally.
The ‘sinner’ in the woodpile is however the LA city users tax which having stayed at 10% is enjoying a 25% increase in its share of the overall bill.
The same thing is happening across the board in the UK particularly with the 5% vat (value added tax) on domestic energy.
Governments are frightened of inflation yet they are fueling it. Forgive the pun.“
I leave you to draw your own conclusions, mine are that things are, very often, not what they appear to be.
On a lighter note I received the following “laws of economics” by another friend. I don’t know who composed them originally although I am totally convinced that they are accurate and I doff my hat to their anonymous author, obviously a genius!
Economic Models explained with cows- 2008 update
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows.
You give one to your neighbour.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and gives you some milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and sells you some milk.
NAZISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and shoots you.
BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the
milk away...
TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell one and buy a bull.
Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.
SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.
The government requires you to take harmonica lessons
AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows.
Later, you hire a consultant to analyse why the cow has dropped dead.
ENRON VENTURE CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of
credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a
debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all
four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.
The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a
Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who
sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.
The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on
one more.
You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States, leaving
you with nine cows.
No balance sheet provided with the release.
The public then buys your bull.
THE ANDERSEN MODEL
You have two cows.
You shred them.
A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You go on strike, organise a riot, and block the roads, because you want
three cows.
A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and
produce twenty times the milk.
You then create a clever cow cartoon image called 'Cowkimon' and market
it worldwide.
A GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows
You re-engineer them so they live for 100 years, eat once a month, and
milk themselves.
AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You decide to have lunch.
A RUSSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You count them and learn you have five cows.
You count them again and learn you have 42 cows.
You count them again and learn you have 2 cows.
You stop counting cows and open another bottle of vodka.
A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you.
You charge the owners for storing them.
A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You have 300 people milking them.
You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity.
You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.
AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You worship them.
A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Both are mad.
AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows.
You tell them that you have none.
No-one believes you, so they bomb the **** out of you and invade your
country.
You still have no cows, but at least now you are part of a Democracy....
AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Business seems pretty good.
You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows.
The one on the left looks very attractive.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Coming Soon
Today, in the warm LA sunshine at lunch, I discussed with a senior entertainment company executive what was going to be the next big thing in entertainment. Our conclusion was that it would undoubtedly combine the intuition and design elements of Apple’s sexy looking, but kind of techno chunky i Phone and a cut down, smaller even lighter version of their Mac Air, on which I’m composing this story. Married to this will be increased, enhanced flash memory, and “Tivo”, UK readers will be more familiar with the “Sky Plus” brand, type television adaptability.
Of course there will have to be quicker connectivity and even faster access. There won’t be a need for much hard memory as the years roll forward. The reason for this will probably turn out to be “The Grid” being currently finalized in Switzerland. This was developed to allow the processing of the incredibly large number of computations necessary to translate the huge atom smashing mechanism built into the mountains of Switzerland. This is so huge a computing project that it was necessary for The Grid to be created to free up the Internet. The result is that The Grid will create incredible spare capacity for all our information storage and moving needs. This, in turn will result in little or no need for the average user to store their information on their PC. We will all hold our information on the Grid, calling for it only when we need it. The Internet will be consigned to the dustbin of history as it simply will not have the capacity necessary to adapt to ever increasing demands.
The results will revolutionize the type of devices we use and carry with us. Super fast, super thin and light. They will all be very desirable but the winners will be those that have the best design elements. Content will eventually be freely available to everyone because advertising concerns will pay for you to have it as long as you carry their advertisements. Personally I will be the consumer who prefers the option to pay for what I want. I think many of my age group will choose the same path but it will be a progressively harder position to maintain.
I used to maintain that content is king but I believe that this position is no longer possible to maintain. This changed when the major distribution / production powerhouses in the entertainment factories decided to turn the creative industries into a paperback type industry. The idea used to be to get the maximum revenue from each area of the industry before it passed down the food chain. This kept the values optimized. Now, for reasons of market driven, short-term capitalism the idea is to get the biggest dollar figure as quickly as possible. It is comparable to harvesting all the trees in the forest and not re-planting because you want to move as much wood to the buyers as quickly as you can. Obviously, working this way you’ll bank a lot of money, but next year you won’t have any trees to sell.
As a consequence the strategic planning for and residual values of entertainment libraries are being very rapidly diminished on the questionable alter of this quarter’s figures. Even star driven, major company big pictures are being dumped into the discount bins so what chance do the little projects have in this economic model, none?
In a world in which you can compare shop in the very limited and finite linear shelf space of your supermarket, or surf the net to see what the universe has to offer, there will only be one winner. Everything in retail is migrating to the net because it’s cheaper, less labor intensive and easier to manage. This will result in even less city and town shopping centers turning some of our cities into progressively more shop and industry free places to live.
The question is can knowledge and creativity based economies such as those in the G7 club of the richest, old first world powerhouses, survive their transition from the old economic model to the new sufficiently to prosper enough to continue to consume from the new manufacturing and raw material supplying countries such as China, India and Russia? This is going to be essential to keep the world economy moving.
Of course there will have to be quicker connectivity and even faster access. There won’t be a need for much hard memory as the years roll forward. The reason for this will probably turn out to be “The Grid” being currently finalized in Switzerland. This was developed to allow the processing of the incredibly large number of computations necessary to translate the huge atom smashing mechanism built into the mountains of Switzerland. This is so huge a computing project that it was necessary for The Grid to be created to free up the Internet. The result is that The Grid will create incredible spare capacity for all our information storage and moving needs. This, in turn will result in little or no need for the average user to store their information on their PC. We will all hold our information on the Grid, calling for it only when we need it. The Internet will be consigned to the dustbin of history as it simply will not have the capacity necessary to adapt to ever increasing demands.
The results will revolutionize the type of devices we use and carry with us. Super fast, super thin and light. They will all be very desirable but the winners will be those that have the best design elements. Content will eventually be freely available to everyone because advertising concerns will pay for you to have it as long as you carry their advertisements. Personally I will be the consumer who prefers the option to pay for what I want. I think many of my age group will choose the same path but it will be a progressively harder position to maintain.
I used to maintain that content is king but I believe that this position is no longer possible to maintain. This changed when the major distribution / production powerhouses in the entertainment factories decided to turn the creative industries into a paperback type industry. The idea used to be to get the maximum revenue from each area of the industry before it passed down the food chain. This kept the values optimized. Now, for reasons of market driven, short-term capitalism the idea is to get the biggest dollar figure as quickly as possible. It is comparable to harvesting all the trees in the forest and not re-planting because you want to move as much wood to the buyers as quickly as you can. Obviously, working this way you’ll bank a lot of money, but next year you won’t have any trees to sell.
As a consequence the strategic planning for and residual values of entertainment libraries are being very rapidly diminished on the questionable alter of this quarter’s figures. Even star driven, major company big pictures are being dumped into the discount bins so what chance do the little projects have in this economic model, none?
In a world in which you can compare shop in the very limited and finite linear shelf space of your supermarket, or surf the net to see what the universe has to offer, there will only be one winner. Everything in retail is migrating to the net because it’s cheaper, less labor intensive and easier to manage. This will result in even less city and town shopping centers turning some of our cities into progressively more shop and industry free places to live.
The question is can knowledge and creativity based economies such as those in the G7 club of the richest, old first world powerhouses, survive their transition from the old economic model to the new sufficiently to prosper enough to continue to consume from the new manufacturing and raw material supplying countries such as China, India and Russia? This is going to be essential to keep the world economy moving.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
My Heroes
Yesterday my favorite football team, (soccer for my American friends) Manchester United, qualified for the final of the European Champions League. They did so by beating Spain’s champions, Barcelona in the semi-final. In the final, set for Moscow in May, they will meet the winner of Liverpool V Chelsea, who are playing their game as I write. It has been quite a year for English club football in the world’s premiere club football tournament. This is like the Superbowl, the World Series and the Olympics rolled together. There will be billions of people around the globe watching this game.
All four of the English qualifying teams made it to the final stages of the competition, a feat never been achieved before by any national league’s representatives. In this sport England is treated as a separate nation from the other parts of the UK, so Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have their own leagues and representation.
There is a special importance for me related to Manchester United’s accomplishment this year that transcends normal soccer elements such as skill, tribal passion and athleticism.
The first game of football I was taken to by my father took place almost exactly a half -century ago. My family all supported one of the great old London teams, Arsenal. They were going to take me to see Arsenal play Manchester United so that I, like them, would naturally become a fan of the Arsenal.
How were they to know that, at age 8, I was to fall under the magic spell of the Red Devils, the nickname of Manchester United. They were led by a colossus who was then aged 21, called Duncan Edwards. Perhaps one of the best soccer players in the world, ever, he was already a star of the full England team. He was capable of playing in every position of the team. That’s like being an American football quarterback who could also kick all the goals and be a wide receiver!
I was a small kid but was soon spellbound by this giant Edwards. He led this team of precociously brilliant young talent, which had been assembled by one of the best managers the game had ever been graced by, Sir Matt Busby. The team he had brought together was collectively known to the world as the Busby Babes. They were the youngest team in the top division of English football and had already won the competition the previous year. I remember watching them beat Arsenal 5 – 4 in one of the greatest games I was ever to see. I was in awe of them, as was the rest of the world. There was no doubt in anyone’s mind that they would dominate world soccer for the next decade.
They were due to play in the quarterfinal of the European Cup the following week in Eastern Europe against Partisan Belgrade in Yugoslavia. The game resulted in Manchester United qualifying for the semi-final. On the way home the team’s airplane had to refuel in Munich, Germany. It was snowing and icy. The first two times the plane tried to take off there were problems. The third time the plane was destroyed.
The result was a catastrophe. Several journalists, team officials and eight players from the squad, the backbone of the team, were to die, including Duncan Edwards. He fought a long, hard, heroic but ultimately futile battle against his terrible injuries whilst his manager, Matt Busby, was read the last rites. It was the older man, forged in the tough working class of his native Scotland, who survived. He was fated to lead his club to greatness.
Within weeks the club managed to put together a scratch team, which got to the final of the English Cup, the semi final of the European Cup and a respectable finish in the League. Within another decade there was a Manchester United team winning that European Cup. The first English team ever to do so. They won it again, along with the English League and Cup in 1999, the only team to have ever won all three competitions in the same year.
The club just held the dignified memorial for the 50-year anniversary of that awful tragedy and, as fate would have it, the team has again made it to the final of the competition. Win or lose the club has already won. They are already the best-supported, biggest sports team in the world, a testament to what can be achieved against the odds.
Like the Red Devils of the past they play sweeping, attractive football, which captivates the world. Their concept is buccaneering, attack minded and based on the concept that they are simply better than anyone they ever play, now all they have to do is prove it, again!
Manchester United, the best sports team in the world.
All four of the English qualifying teams made it to the final stages of the competition, a feat never been achieved before by any national league’s representatives. In this sport England is treated as a separate nation from the other parts of the UK, so Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have their own leagues and representation.
There is a special importance for me related to Manchester United’s accomplishment this year that transcends normal soccer elements such as skill, tribal passion and athleticism.
The first game of football I was taken to by my father took place almost exactly a half -century ago. My family all supported one of the great old London teams, Arsenal. They were going to take me to see Arsenal play Manchester United so that I, like them, would naturally become a fan of the Arsenal.
How were they to know that, at age 8, I was to fall under the magic spell of the Red Devils, the nickname of Manchester United. They were led by a colossus who was then aged 21, called Duncan Edwards. Perhaps one of the best soccer players in the world, ever, he was already a star of the full England team. He was capable of playing in every position of the team. That’s like being an American football quarterback who could also kick all the goals and be a wide receiver!
I was a small kid but was soon spellbound by this giant Edwards. He led this team of precociously brilliant young talent, which had been assembled by one of the best managers the game had ever been graced by, Sir Matt Busby. The team he had brought together was collectively known to the world as the Busby Babes. They were the youngest team in the top division of English football and had already won the competition the previous year. I remember watching them beat Arsenal 5 – 4 in one of the greatest games I was ever to see. I was in awe of them, as was the rest of the world. There was no doubt in anyone’s mind that they would dominate world soccer for the next decade.
They were due to play in the quarterfinal of the European Cup the following week in Eastern Europe against Partisan Belgrade in Yugoslavia. The game resulted in Manchester United qualifying for the semi-final. On the way home the team’s airplane had to refuel in Munich, Germany. It was snowing and icy. The first two times the plane tried to take off there were problems. The third time the plane was destroyed.
The result was a catastrophe. Several journalists, team officials and eight players from the squad, the backbone of the team, were to die, including Duncan Edwards. He fought a long, hard, heroic but ultimately futile battle against his terrible injuries whilst his manager, Matt Busby, was read the last rites. It was the older man, forged in the tough working class of his native Scotland, who survived. He was fated to lead his club to greatness.
Within weeks the club managed to put together a scratch team, which got to the final of the English Cup, the semi final of the European Cup and a respectable finish in the League. Within another decade there was a Manchester United team winning that European Cup. The first English team ever to do so. They won it again, along with the English League and Cup in 1999, the only team to have ever won all three competitions in the same year.
The club just held the dignified memorial for the 50-year anniversary of that awful tragedy and, as fate would have it, the team has again made it to the final of the competition. Win or lose the club has already won. They are already the best-supported, biggest sports team in the world, a testament to what can be achieved against the odds.
Like the Red Devils of the past they play sweeping, attractive football, which captivates the world. Their concept is buccaneering, attack minded and based on the concept that they are simply better than anyone they ever play, now all they have to do is prove it, again!
Manchester United, the best sports team in the world.
Keeping our Nerve
My baby boomer generation is probably living in the last of the best days man has ever experienced. There have been the usual series of small, contained wars in places like Vietnam, Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan but nothing like the carnage experienced in World Wars One and Two. We have experienced unprecedented freedom, wealth and personal liberty and all of this whilst communications, technology, travel and entertainment have all become more available to more people than ever before.
We’re facing a very different, much more worrying world. Facing the twin threats of increasing terrorism and decreasing resources within the context of a diminishing economy will lead to major problems. We’ve seen the first signs of this. The sub-prime mortgage debacle in the States has now spread its contagion throughout the banking world. This has resulted in the juddering halt of inter bank lending which means you and I will not be able to qualify for a loan unless our name is Rockefeller or Rothschild.
This would be bad enough in normal times, but this banking screw up coincides with the general economy backfiring and the start of major food supply problems. Food riots have already happened in the past weeks in various disadvantaged countries. Oil prices have leapt above $100 a barrel at the same time as property prices begin to slump.
The planting of large swathes of agricultural land with ethanol crops instead of food, will, perhaps, have a short-term beneficial effect reducing our use of fossil fuels. However the concomitant, longer term cost in reducing the amount of land being used to grow our food is a disaster.
Economies depend on the general population having faith in the economic system, particularly its faith in banks and governments. That faith is unraveling and our leaders need to work on this as their priority or we will all suffer. We all saw the result in the UK when one of our biggest mortgage banks, Northern Rock, became a basket case about a month ago. Although bailed out by the British Government it is not ever going to be independently financial viable again. This all happened within days, almost immediately after the public realized the bank was under threat. That could happen anywhere operating from within our economic heartbeat in the City of London or Wall St.
This, in turn means that long term bonds, government backed, begin to look less desirable for some of their biggest investors. The big institutional Arabic and Chinese money won’t chase a losing concern which on paper we are. Right now they are, willing or otherwise, propping up our system.
We will be revisiting this theme more in the coming months as this all unravels. For now, the wise thing to do is to hold on to your cash, and hold your breath for the rest. The property market comparison for California is down 28% year on year. It will recover, because property is a finite resource that always will increase in value over the longer term, as long as the whole of society doesn’t crash and burn.
Common sense will prevail, and our economies will more forward, eventually. The amount of damage caused in the interim is going to be in direct proportion to the degree we all keep our nerve.
We’re facing a very different, much more worrying world. Facing the twin threats of increasing terrorism and decreasing resources within the context of a diminishing economy will lead to major problems. We’ve seen the first signs of this. The sub-prime mortgage debacle in the States has now spread its contagion throughout the banking world. This has resulted in the juddering halt of inter bank lending which means you and I will not be able to qualify for a loan unless our name is Rockefeller or Rothschild.
This would be bad enough in normal times, but this banking screw up coincides with the general economy backfiring and the start of major food supply problems. Food riots have already happened in the past weeks in various disadvantaged countries. Oil prices have leapt above $100 a barrel at the same time as property prices begin to slump.
The planting of large swathes of agricultural land with ethanol crops instead of food, will, perhaps, have a short-term beneficial effect reducing our use of fossil fuels. However the concomitant, longer term cost in reducing the amount of land being used to grow our food is a disaster.
Economies depend on the general population having faith in the economic system, particularly its faith in banks and governments. That faith is unraveling and our leaders need to work on this as their priority or we will all suffer. We all saw the result in the UK when one of our biggest mortgage banks, Northern Rock, became a basket case about a month ago. Although bailed out by the British Government it is not ever going to be independently financial viable again. This all happened within days, almost immediately after the public realized the bank was under threat. That could happen anywhere operating from within our economic heartbeat in the City of London or Wall St.
This, in turn means that long term bonds, government backed, begin to look less desirable for some of their biggest investors. The big institutional Arabic and Chinese money won’t chase a losing concern which on paper we are. Right now they are, willing or otherwise, propping up our system.
We will be revisiting this theme more in the coming months as this all unravels. For now, the wise thing to do is to hold on to your cash, and hold your breath for the rest. The property market comparison for California is down 28% year on year. It will recover, because property is a finite resource that always will increase in value over the longer term, as long as the whole of society doesn’t crash and burn.
Common sense will prevail, and our economies will more forward, eventually. The amount of damage caused in the interim is going to be in direct proportion to the degree we all keep our nerve.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
The Fault Lines
Today in Los Angeles it is over 40 degrees Celsius, which is more than I am comfortable with. I love air conditioning. This is one of the best inventions along with hats and umbrellas when it’s this hot. LA has them all. It is the idea that this place might have to live with heat like this one day in the future without air conditioning that is the subject of this posting.
The reason for fat and flabby is that you don't have to be fit and fast. We have so ordered our world that we have to now find ways to get the exercise and discipline that has always been part of our everyday lives previously. We eat too much and move too little. It hasn't always been like this, and I suspect that this will not always be the case in the future.
We, in the affluent first world have become used to adjusting our world to fit our needs. We simply turn up the heat when it’s cold, the air-cooling when it’s too hot. Too dark and on come the lights, too far away and we get on a car, train, bus or airplane to bring it within reach. This all demands fuel, and that is finite. The primary source for future wars will be conflicting demands for raw materials such as fuel and food.
Will we choose to live less well to be fair to our fellow man? I don’t think we will unless we have to. That’s called losing the next war. It’s the people who were on the losing side who get the raw deal. They don’t get to write the history, or to be at the front of the line to pick up the goody bag.
We met some friends today from the UK in the bright sunshine in the excellent Marmalade café for breakfast. They were commenting on the fact that prices in LA were much higher than a year back. I think they’re right. The dollar’s weakness is beginning to impact on the price of imported goods.
Like most people, America is living in a bubble of suspended reality. We all tend to believe tomorrow is going to be much like today but have no evidence except yesterday to sustain this assumption.
The truth is that tomorrow is never like today. Most days the changes are small but sometimes they are much bigger. It’s a bit like an earthquake fault; many tiny cracks will appear before the big bang rips the place apart. That’s what I believe is happening to the World economy. I don’t expect that we are about to collapse, but I do anticipate a lot of fault lines becoming apparent. If we don’t address the problems we will get very big, potentially uncontrollable problems.
Will we in the old Anglo Saxon alliance sit back if we can’t obtain fuel or food or anything else of substance? I don’t think we will and I believe the rest of the world should be aware of this. I am not saying this makes everything we might do in the future right. Our pragmatism means that we have almost always followed what could be considered our enlightened self-interest. Most often that has turned out to be beneficial for the World community because our moral compass has been aimed in the right direction. That doesn't make us right, but it has generally made us less bad than we might have been. This might not continue to be the case.
The reason for fat and flabby is that you don't have to be fit and fast. We have so ordered our world that we have to now find ways to get the exercise and discipline that has always been part of our everyday lives previously. We eat too much and move too little. It hasn't always been like this, and I suspect that this will not always be the case in the future.
We, in the affluent first world have become used to adjusting our world to fit our needs. We simply turn up the heat when it’s cold, the air-cooling when it’s too hot. Too dark and on come the lights, too far away and we get on a car, train, bus or airplane to bring it within reach. This all demands fuel, and that is finite. The primary source for future wars will be conflicting demands for raw materials such as fuel and food.
Will we choose to live less well to be fair to our fellow man? I don’t think we will unless we have to. That’s called losing the next war. It’s the people who were on the losing side who get the raw deal. They don’t get to write the history, or to be at the front of the line to pick up the goody bag.
We met some friends today from the UK in the bright sunshine in the excellent Marmalade café for breakfast. They were commenting on the fact that prices in LA were much higher than a year back. I think they’re right. The dollar’s weakness is beginning to impact on the price of imported goods.
Like most people, America is living in a bubble of suspended reality. We all tend to believe tomorrow is going to be much like today but have no evidence except yesterday to sustain this assumption.
The truth is that tomorrow is never like today. Most days the changes are small but sometimes they are much bigger. It’s a bit like an earthquake fault; many tiny cracks will appear before the big bang rips the place apart. That’s what I believe is happening to the World economy. I don’t expect that we are about to collapse, but I do anticipate a lot of fault lines becoming apparent. If we don’t address the problems we will get very big, potentially uncontrollable problems.
Will we in the old Anglo Saxon alliance sit back if we can’t obtain fuel or food or anything else of substance? I don’t think we will and I believe the rest of the world should be aware of this. I am not saying this makes everything we might do in the future right. Our pragmatism means that we have almost always followed what could be considered our enlightened self-interest. Most often that has turned out to be beneficial for the World community because our moral compass has been aimed in the right direction. That doesn't make us right, but it has generally made us less bad than we might have been. This might not continue to be the case.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Being Unwell
Let me start by saying I am now fine, but one day last week was heavy. I use the term heavy because it sums up what a fright it is when you’re suddenly unwell. I have long been fortunate with my health but yesterday was scary. I will, in fact, not post this blog until a few days have gone past since I want those of you who care to know that I have fully recovered before you read this. I am, in fact, now back to normal, but that day last week was a different story.
It started normally enough, for those of you who have traveled to wonderful foreign parts in a big cruise liner that is. I awoke in my beautiful room on the Golden Princess and looked out over the Mexican town of Mazatlan. I was eager to explore it and went to the bathroom to undertake my ablutions. There was a towel on the floor, I bent to pick it up and that was when the world began to spin on its axis in a most peculiar and undesirable manner. I felt awful, and it was unlike anything I had ever suffered from before.
I nudged my wife and sought help as I collapsed on the bed. She summoned the medical staff who first told her to get me to walk down to the medical center. I was totally incapable of unaided walking, so they sent a nurse with a wheelchair. I would normally do anything rather than allow myself to be wheeled in my pajamas through a shipload of fellow travelers, but somehow none of that mattered.
After arriving in the medical center they quickly took my blood pressure, which was unusually low, as was my heart rate. I then started to feel even worse and they now wheeled me to a more complicated room, full of monitors and curious machinery. But I have to admit I was unable to focus on anything as consciousness begin to ebb and flow. I felt like being violently ill as they were taking blood samples, and started pumping me with saline and injecting me with heart stimulants. I heard them call out my blood pressure readings as I was now being attended by two doctors and a couple of nurses who were simultaneously hooking me up to heart monitors. The readings were the kind of numbers you witness on U.S. television programs like “House” or British counterparts like “Casualty” just before the slap on the electric shock paddles. It wasn’t good. But the good news for me is that they soon got everything going again.
Within a short while my blood pressure started to move towards more reasonable levels and the color apparently came back to my cheeks. To be honest it scared the hell out of everyone in the room. Even the medical staff admitted afterwards that they were very concerned, but not half as concerned as I was when they were using me like a pincushion.
I then had to stay under total observation for twelve hours as a safety measure and then I was allowed back to my cabin. We missed Mazatlan totally and then we had to stay on board when the ship berthed outside Cabo St. Lucas in Baja, California. Do you know what, I couldn’t care less as I am just thrilled to be able to write this and to say thank you to Doctor Mark Mason, and the nurses Mark and Faye who were terrific to me when I needed them to be efficient, cool under pressure and unfailingly honest throughout my small ordeal.
I shall not bother the reader with my medical condition other than to state for the record that luckily there was absolutely no damage to my heart and it was not a heart attack. I’ll still be here, writing for a long while yet.
I would like to say an especially big thank you to my wife, Avril. Without her dealing with this emergency quickly and with great determination it could have all got a lot worse. She was very brave, bright and wonderfully supportive. Sometimes we lose sight of the more important things in life, we look at the bills, or the petty annoyances and people that aggravate and forget what really makes the world go round. My father used to say you’ve got nothing if you haven’t got your health. He was right, and how lucky I am, that today I’m here and I’m back to normal. I’ll sign off by wishing you all well. Tomorrow is another day.
It started normally enough, for those of you who have traveled to wonderful foreign parts in a big cruise liner that is. I awoke in my beautiful room on the Golden Princess and looked out over the Mexican town of Mazatlan. I was eager to explore it and went to the bathroom to undertake my ablutions. There was a towel on the floor, I bent to pick it up and that was when the world began to spin on its axis in a most peculiar and undesirable manner. I felt awful, and it was unlike anything I had ever suffered from before.
I nudged my wife and sought help as I collapsed on the bed. She summoned the medical staff who first told her to get me to walk down to the medical center. I was totally incapable of unaided walking, so they sent a nurse with a wheelchair. I would normally do anything rather than allow myself to be wheeled in my pajamas through a shipload of fellow travelers, but somehow none of that mattered.
After arriving in the medical center they quickly took my blood pressure, which was unusually low, as was my heart rate. I then started to feel even worse and they now wheeled me to a more complicated room, full of monitors and curious machinery. But I have to admit I was unable to focus on anything as consciousness begin to ebb and flow. I felt like being violently ill as they were taking blood samples, and started pumping me with saline and injecting me with heart stimulants. I heard them call out my blood pressure readings as I was now being attended by two doctors and a couple of nurses who were simultaneously hooking me up to heart monitors. The readings were the kind of numbers you witness on U.S. television programs like “House” or British counterparts like “Casualty” just before the slap on the electric shock paddles. It wasn’t good. But the good news for me is that they soon got everything going again.
Within a short while my blood pressure started to move towards more reasonable levels and the color apparently came back to my cheeks. To be honest it scared the hell out of everyone in the room. Even the medical staff admitted afterwards that they were very concerned, but not half as concerned as I was when they were using me like a pincushion.
I then had to stay under total observation for twelve hours as a safety measure and then I was allowed back to my cabin. We missed Mazatlan totally and then we had to stay on board when the ship berthed outside Cabo St. Lucas in Baja, California. Do you know what, I couldn’t care less as I am just thrilled to be able to write this and to say thank you to Doctor Mark Mason, and the nurses Mark and Faye who were terrific to me when I needed them to be efficient, cool under pressure and unfailingly honest throughout my small ordeal.
I shall not bother the reader with my medical condition other than to state for the record that luckily there was absolutely no damage to my heart and it was not a heart attack. I’ll still be here, writing for a long while yet.
I would like to say an especially big thank you to my wife, Avril. Without her dealing with this emergency quickly and with great determination it could have all got a lot worse. She was very brave, bright and wonderfully supportive. Sometimes we lose sight of the more important things in life, we look at the bills, or the petty annoyances and people that aggravate and forget what really makes the world go round. My father used to say you’ve got nothing if you haven’t got your health. He was right, and how lucky I am, that today I’m here and I’m back to normal. I’ll sign off by wishing you all well. Tomorrow is another day.
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