Thursday, March 12, 2009

Protectionism

It’s time for a pause for breath while we look around to see what’s really happening in the world economy. There are few reasons to be cheerful. It now seems probable that unless we all get very lucky there will be entire countries whose insolvency might result in their needing large scale, long -term economic assistance.

Principal amongst these countries are the Baltic States who are in grave danger of becoming basket cases. The drop of manufacturing in the rest of the world is hurting Russia’s reliance on its export of raw materials hugely. Even the Chinese manufacturing powerhouse is beginning to falter as demand is decimated. This slack cannot be taken up by infrastructure projects, however ambitious.

Most of Africa was, as ever, already in dire economic condition and as a peculiar quirk of the financial tragedy will probably notice the worsening situation less than the rest of the world. How does a diet of war, civil strife, corruption and starvation get worse?

The Anglo Saxon countries, previously the leaders of the laissez faire market model are very severely damaged. America and the UK are both starting to feel the first major problems of the current recession with unemployment rising fast, businesses going broke, industrial output collapsing and the bottom falling out of the property market.

It is becoming a real possibility that the UK might become a bankrupt nation if the present economic trajectory continues. Hopefully the measures being taken by the government will gather traction and succeed because there are few, if any meaningful further courses of action available to it. This year we will discover whether Prime Minister Gordon Brown is a super hero only in his own mind and it’s the IMF who has to come flying to the rescue.

One of the most worrying signs in the UK is the fact that the Quantitative Easing, effectively the last ditch printing of money to purchase gilts, which started yesterday, shows no sign of freeing up money in the banking system it was designed to achieve. The huge sums of money pledged to follow this type of route in both continents will now be filtered into the system over a period of years. There is an argument for quicker and even more drastic action. But the principal concern is whether any of the actions being taken can or will be successful. Already tried has been the central bankers first line of defense, which was to decrease the interest rates. Now these are almost sitting at or near 0% and it has yet to make any difference to the lack of lending from the banks to businesses and individuals. The banks need to be compelled by government to do this for the good of all.

If we are to fully rediscover our former prosperity we have to address fundamental problems and these are the even more intractable and relate to how our societies are structured. As a correspondent wrote to me;

“N.Y. time headline today: "Job losses hint at vast remaking of U.S. Economy" (Experts see permanent restructuring)

This is what my travelogues through the rust belt were getting at long ago when we first started corresponding. This is why I couldn't fathom the Iraq war. This country (America) is in no position to do anything but figure out how to educate itself--history would be a start for some, but science is more pressing at this point. Now that the former union people in the east will be competing in earnest with people in India, Korea and Mexico, you have to ask yourself why anyone would hire a fat, narrow-minded diabetic over someone with a real education. ..The Palin/Bush/Limbaugh stuff is symptomatic of a country that does not quite get what the labor force of the future is likely to resemble. Community colleges are suddenly swamped and there is push to re-train--o.k. but the Indians and Chinese actually have training in math, logic, poetics, English grammar--this is not something you fix with a community college. Where are the new starts that will actually create the new economy?

So...unemployment at 8.1 percent, but if you factor in those who have given up looking, it is 10 and if you factor in part timers who would like to be full-time it's 14 percent. Stay tuned.” - Brad

I am in total agreement with this view. We have lost sight of the ball and the West’s leading economies have, for a long time, foolishly misdirected our attention in an attempt at easy money, soft education and even physical sloth. Countries like India and Chine have been working harder, and are being better educated. Our leaders have been playing with winning elections whilst theirs look strategically to the future.

In the immediate future we must address our educational shortcomings more realistically and think seriously about the direction we want our societies to travel.

It’s time to consider how we make our money in the longer term as more of a priority than how much we can gain from short term fixes.

In the future will we be able to sustain prosperity by outsourcing production to the cheapest suppliers, whoever and wherever they are?

The present crisis proves that we have to plan strategically for all eventualities, even those that might seem improbable when the sun is shining. We are yet to learn any of the vital economic lessons, and are whistling in the dark as the bogeyman is stalking the shadows, still carrying his mighty axe.

The biggest threat to the entire world economic order is the distinct danger that countries and groups of countries will retire behind growing barriers of trade protection. It is this natural inclination for protectionism, which could yet send us into a full-blown Second Great Depression. It must be avoided at all costs.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

OldFashionedValues

A few days ago a cousin telephoned to tell me that her cousin, on her dad’s side, was in town from Georgia, USA. Would I like to join them for dinner?

It was the first time I had seen John, his wife Betty and his sister Janet in nearly fifty years. Their mother was a British GI bride who had returned with her soldier husband to a farm just after the war.

Yesterday was the appointed day and we duly reconnected. They still live in a small rural town about 150 miles out of Atlanta where John teaches agricultural and forestry business and Betty teaches the Arts at the same High School,and Janet has retired..

As some of you know I have experience as a Lecturer in both Further and Higher Education in the UK and you might share my view that there are vast swathes of this part of the English academic structure that simply make no sense. One of the great curses here being that the systems are forced to change top down led by theorists rather than allowed to evolve and improve due to logic and experience. Sadly America seems to follow the same mistaken path although there the motivation might be more commercial and less ideologically driven.

But back to my extended family. I had forgotten how sweet and charming people from the backwoods of America can be. They didn’t complain about anything, they totally lacked cynicism and their attitude is totally positive and loving. They are deeply patriotic, love their country and even when they don’t support a leader as they don’t support President Obama, they sensibly wished him the strength and wisdom to complete his ambitious plans. Perhaps we could learn something from these “old fashioned” values.

Watching these country cousins sit open mouthed as they listened to the British branch of our loud, opinionated and feisty family complain about everything in Britain was a treat. They just couldn’t believe how we criticize almost everything in the UK, a country that they still enjoy and respect greatly.

One of the things that will stay with me from our brief time together was the ready smile on the faces of these genuinely good and wholesome people. We all hugged one another when it came to say our farewells and expressed the hope that we won’t be 100 years old when we next meet. After a great meal and the wonderful company of our kissing cousins I came away with a smile on my face.

It’s easy to forget that it was people like John, Janet and Betty who built America with their appreciation of family, education, tradition, law and justice. The sophisticates in the big cities, including me, should all learn something from this brief return to all our yesterdays.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

BloodyIreland

Just when you began to think there was one intractable problem in the world that could be solved by diplomacy along comes another murdering bunch of bastards to prove you wrong.

Over the last few months there have been authorative voices raising concerns over security in Northern Ireland. Principal amongst these was the Police Chief, Sir Hugh Orde, who repeatedly stated that there were serious terrorist plans to kill and maim at an advanced stage of preparation. Even more recently elements of the British military infiltration and observation teams who work closely with the SAS were put into Northern Ireland.

But it was too little too late. A couple of days ago two soldiers, unarmed, about to eat a pizza before going to serve with the army in Afghanistan were gunned down in cold blood. Yesterday, in case we didn’t get the point a long serving police officer was summoned by a call from a woman in distress only to be ambushed and shot dead. The murderous bastards are back. After a decade of relative quiet purchased at the price of common sense and peace at any price.

The leaders of Sinn Fein, who, we mustn’t forget were and are the leaders of the Provisional IRA, weep crocodile tears over these losses. The fact is that the recent killers are from the Real IRA and are a dissident Republican group who don’t accept the peace process.

It would be an error to over react to the bloody outrages, but on the other hand our government must act decisively against the growing threat. The way to do this is to pressurize the leaders of Sinn Fein to provide their intelligence information about the perpetrators. Without doubt the Republican community knows exactly who committed these crimes and where they are. If Sinn Fein wants to cloak itself in false respectability and suck at the teat of the munificent British public purse this is the price and it must be levied now.

This is not yet a return to the “Troubles” of the past, but it is very easy to imagine the situation quickly spiraling downwards and out of control unless firm and sensible counter actions are taken.

If these crimes are allowed to stand larger scale attacks would be an inevitable consequence. That would be enough to suck a new generation of hard men from all sides back on the streets.

These sickening crimes have to be dealt with quickly and visibly. The culprits must be brought to justice and all measures to achieve this end must be employed, NOW!

Monday, March 9, 2009

GoodbyeGreg

I have just returned from a very moving Tribute to the life of Greg Smith a film and theatrical Producer of some note who passed away last week. I had an intermittent but nevertheless intimate relationship with Greg.

Greg had a tough time growing up having lost much of his family before he was a teenager. He always kept this part of his life private and clearly found it a bit of a difficult subject. On leaving drama school in London at the age of 15, Greg joined the Argyle Theatre Touring Company and then took a job as a runner to impresario, Bernard, later Lord Delfont, where he learned the craft of being an agent.

I met Greg when he produced the documentaries,” Brendan Behan's Dublin" and “The London Nobody Knows”, which were both directed by his client and friend Norman Cohen with my late father’s film company where I was working during my school holidays as a very junior editor. Greg had also set up a small talent agency that represented a respectable client list of producers, directors and writers, amongst whom I was later to be a minor and very difficult client.

I wrote the outline for a novel and when I was about 18 Greg negotiated an offer for me to write the book for a publisher for a very healthy advance. Being a stupid and obstinate teenager I turned down the offer. Now I realize what a miracle worker Greg must have been and how disappointed he must have been at my reaction.

Greg and Norman made the film of the BBC TV series "Dad's Army" for Columbia Pictures and filmed Spike Milligan’s novel “Adolf Hitler - My Part in His Downfall” for United Artists, which quickly followed.

A short time later my father asked me to read a book whilst I was on a train journey to the North of England. Later dad asked me what I thought, I said it was very funny and asked him what his interest was in the book. He said he was going to make it into a film and asked me to work on it as the line producer with our old friend Greg Smith. Once again being a very silly young man I turned down the invitation saying I wouldn’t touch such raunchy material with a barge pole. Hence was born the "Confessions …." Series being produced by Greg and executive produced by my father.

The first of these was released in 1974, and it was the amazingly successful "Confessions of a Window Cleaner" which grossed a higher sum per dollar spent than any other Columbia film in the non-US markets and gained entry into the Guinness Film Book of Records. This proves conclusively that no one knows nothing, especially yours truly. Well perhaps Greg and Michael Klinger knew a great deal more than me!

Greg then produced "The Thirty Nine Steps" (starring Robert Powell, John Mills and David Warner) from Buchan's original book rather than as a remake of the famous Hitchcock version.

In 1979 Greg moved into television with the series "Tropic of Ruislip", followed by the TV movie "The Shillingbury Blowers" starring Trevor Howard and leading to the popular series "Shillingbury Tales" in 1981/82; then another Leslie Thomas creation "Dangerous Davies - The Last Detective".

In the early '80s Greg also produced the movies "Funny Money" and "The Boys in Blue" and the TV series "Cuffy” plus a 12 x 1 hour series for Euston Films "Prospects" (1984/85), and two series of the sitcom
"Rude Health".

"Great Expectations" followed in 1988/89, a mini-series (starring Anthony Hopkins, Jean Simmons, Ray McAnally and John Rhys Davies) that received two ACE awards and four EMMY nominations.

Perhaps the single most successful venture of Greg’s productive life came when he co-produced "Buddy - The Buddy Holly Story" , with Laurie Mansfield and Paul Elliott. The stage production proved a major hit World Wide. “Buddy” has been nominated for many international awards including two English Laurence Olivier Awards, one US Tony Award and six Canadian Dora Mavor Moore Awards.

During 1987 to '89, Greg chaired the British Cannes Action Committee and the British Pavilion at the Cannes Film Festival. In 1989-90, Greg produced Trevor Nunn's highly acclaimed "Othello" (starring Sir Ian McKellan and Willard White), which received two BAFTA nominations and in 1992 Trevor and Greg joined forces again to make the world television production of Gershwin's operatic masterpiece "Porgy and Bess".

Following the production of "The Old Curiosity Shop" as a mini-series starring Sir Peter Ustinov, Tom Courtney, Greg and Trevor Nunn formed Circus Films Limited, which, in 1995/96 produced, "Twelfth Night".

Laurie Mansfield, Paul Elliott and Greg then brought "Jolson" to London with Brian Conley playing the title role. The show was awarded the Laurence Olivier Award of "Best Musical 1996". In the spring of 1996, Greg produced Neil Simon's "London Suite".

In 1998-99 Greg, as Producer filmed George Orwell's "Animal Farm" in Ireland - and within weeks of the completion of this shoot - "David Copperfield", shot in Dublin, with Greg as Co-Producer.

During this period, he and Laurie Mansfield also Co-Produced "Agnes Brown" with Jim Sheridan and Morgan O'Sullivan. In the London theatre, Greg and Laurie Mansfield, with Chris Davis, Chris Marino and Effective Productions, brought "Animal Crackers", the Marx Brothers' comedy classic to the West End for a limited tour. In July 1999, Greg, Laurie Mansfield, Jim Davidson and Robin Clark launched "Great Balls of Fire", the Jerry Lee Lewis story,

A couple of years ago Greg and I spent some time discussing the idea of his studying American history at university as I had, by then, spent quite a lot of time in academia. I loved his enthusiasm as the ideas streamed off him but time and circumstances didn’t allow this opportunity to flower.

The last time we talked we were exploring the idea of putting on our moon boots to make a film together that my late father had developed many years previously. But ill health handled with the utmost discretion by Greg was one hurdle he was unable to overcome, it was not to be.

When I had need of some friendship, advice and a guiding hand I asked and Greg was there for me and there was no embarrassment. I hope that I have been as good with others when it has been my turn to pass along some of my good fortune. Greg felt he had a “fabulous” life doing all the things he wanted and not many of us can say that.

At the service celebrating the life of Greg there were sincere, funny and touching contributions from John Clive, Robin Askwith, Seamus Smith and the writer Leslie Thomas. Greg would have thought the whole thing was “Nonsense!” but we know better.

Sue Hayworth, Greg’s charming and accomplished assistant for many years finished the ceremony with this very appropriate poetry reading;

You can shed tears that he is gone,
Or you can smile because he lived,
You can close your eyes and pray that he will come back,
Or you can open your eyes and see all that he has left.

Your heart can be empty because you can’t see him
Or you can be full of the love that you shared,
You can turn your back on tomorrow and live yesterday,
Or you can be happy for tomorrow because of yesterday.

You can remember him and only that he is gone
Or you can cherish his memory and let it live on,
You can cry and close your mind be empty and turn your back,
Or you can do what he would want: smile, open your eyes,
love and go on.

Sue then smiled and added “he was a good boss” to which I would like to add, “he was a good man.”

To the family of Greg, his widow Gloria Thomas Smith and Officer-Cadet Jamie Thomas, his step-son I wanted to convey our fondest wishes and condolences as we say goodbye to Greg, from all your friends.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Thank you so much for the comments you send me. Please feel free to post your comments directly onto the appropriate part of the site but in the meantime I thought you might enjoy some of the more recent thoughts, observations and exchanges.

Tony:
Headline in U.S.A. Today: Mortgage Collapse Started in Few Areas. They
have a map that says it all--and there are other stories out now on radio
and TV. picking up the thread. When you really crunch it, it was the
housing developments I pointed out in Southern California, central valley,
and in particular, Pahrump/Las Vegas that triggered the collapse. This
Paper was used to leverage on Wall St. Saw this years ago and told my dad to sell his Palm Springs crib--everyone saw this coming. ...The larger
consequences for the economy were sounded clearly by Paul Krugman and others.

On the national scene, half of the foreclosures are in only 35
Counties--the majority in California, Nevada.

Increasingly, it seems possible to pin this whole thing on hookers in
Pahrump who became real estate agents.
Brad.


Brad
I don't know if you're right but I love the idea of the hookers f…ing the
World rather than the other way around.

Tony

The following was addressed to me about my articles regarding the fast disappearing economy;

Another good one and so true. Slowly emerge step by step out of the madness and the chaos. I love your blogs....
Stevie

My article about “Family” provoked the following observations. I was especially moved by the wonderful and warm loving reactions of many members of my own family. I took the decision not to print their remarks since some stuff should remain personal. Suffice it to say I am proud of them and proud to share their love, which is entirely mutual.

I loved this blog.
I am going to send it to work colleagues and family!
Roz

That was really heartfelt and lovely, Tony
Marjorie

Bravo!!! Many more!
Neville

Observations

Thank you so much for the comments you send me. Please feel free to post your comments directly onto the appropriate part of the site but in the meantime I thought you might enjoy some of the more recent thoughts, observations and exchanges.

Tony:
Headline in U.S.A. Today: Mortgage Collapse Started in Few Areas. They
have a map that says it all--and there are other stories out now on radio
and TV. picking up the thread. When you really crunch it, it was the
housing developments I pointed out in Southern California, central valley,
and in particular, Pahrump/Las Vegas that triggered the collapse. This
Paper was used to leverage on Wall St. Saw this years ago and told my dad to sell his Palm Springs crib--everyone saw this coming. ...The larger
consequences for the economy were sounded clearly by Paul Krugman and others.

On the national scene, half of the foreclosures are in only 35
Counties--the majority in California, Nevada.

Increasingly, it seems possible to pin this whole thing on hookers in
Pahrump who became real estate agents.
Brad.


Brad
I don't know if you're right but I love the idea of the hookers f…ing the
World rather than the other way around.

Tony

The following was addressed to me about my articles regarding the fast disappearing economy;

Another good one and so true. Slowly emerge step by step out of the madness and the chaos. I love your blogs....
Stevie

My article about “Family” provoked the following observations. I was especially moved by the wonderful and warm loving reactions of many members of my own family. I took the decision not to print their remarks since some stuff should remain personal. Suffice it to say I am proud of them and proud to share their love, which is entirely mutual.

I loved this blog.
I am going to send it to work colleagues and family!
Roz

That was really heartfelt and lovely, Tony
Marjorie

Bravo!!! Many more!
Neville

Friday, March 6, 2009

PLANESTUPID

In the UK today we were cursed with a series of acts that were plane stupid.

Outside a London "low carbon" conference at breakfast time a protestor threw a container of green custard in the face of British Government Business Secretary, Lord Mandelson.

She was later discovered to be Leila Dean and she was protesting about the proposed third airport runway at London's Heathrow airport. That additional runway is long overdue and despite the Government's support is still many years and endless hearings, protests and legal hurdles away from completion.

"While I'm prepared to take my fair share of the green revolution on my shoulders, I'm less keen on it in my face," he said after the scare.

"When democracy is failing you have to resort to any means necessary as long as it is peaceful and does not harm other human beings," she said.

"Peter Mandelson is the same person who effectively bullied Ed Miliband and other members of the Cabinet to accept a third runway that nobody wants, a third runway that no one was consulted on and no one is able to say no to.

"It's not right that someone like Peter Mandelson can stand up and talk about being green."

Speaking later where the incident took place Lord Mandelson said: "I don't think anyone should overreact. Ifs there's a security issue it's for the police and others.

"In a democracy people can have their say but I'd rather people said it to my face rather than throw it at my face."

The young woman who threw the custard is a serial protest veteran who comes from a campaign group called PLANE STUPID, which tells you everything you need to know for they do indeed live up to their name.

At the conference the Prime Minister made jokes about the attack as if the whole thing were just a bit of whimsy. I think he was attempting to whistle in the dark, to demonstrate the British bulldog spirit; but all he succeeded in demonstrating was complacency and stupidity.

British politicians have a naive belief that democracy allows them to be complacent and cavalier about their personal security when all the evidence indicates that they should be aware of the potential of threats from many quarters. Imagine if the woman had acid in her container or had decided to kidnap a Minister. Our security apparatus must heed this stark warnings before someone is killed. If we don't protect ourselves and our leaders we are all just PLANE STUPID.