From the e-mails received from the readers of my blogs about the Russians in Georgia it’s clear that this is an issue that worries many of us. The fact that the Russians signed a ceasefire with the Georgians a couple of days back gave many a false sense of security.
We have all witnessed on television and media reports that there are many casual and perhaps organized acts of savagery being perpetrated on local and international civilians by the South Ossetian militia.
The facts are that, so far, the Russians are tightening their grip on the areas of Georgia in which they are interested. Clearly they are also allowing the South Ossetian militia free rein to terrorize the ethnic Georgians who live amongst them. There are many stories of murder, pillage and looting of this nature. If the Russians wanted to put an end to this outrageous behavior they could do it in a moment.
Meanwhile the American government is making increasingly graver noises of disapproval of Russia’s actions.
The Western “liberal” media’s attempt to equate Russian actions in Georgia with those of the Western alliance in Iraq and Afghanistan especially angers me. They bear virtually no similarity and this argument, should we have it, is specious and intentionally mischievous. Just for starters we all should remember two names, the Taliban and Sadaam Hussein. They, and some of their most cruel, illegitimate, barbarous, deceitful and heinous acts formed part of the argument to demolish those regimes. The fact that they massacred people, tortured, gassed and pulled people’s lives apart seems to have been conveniently forgotten. What did Georgia do that had any equivalence?
Other than having the misfortune to be geographically contiguous to the Russian bear they didn’t do much wrong. Russia just doesn’t want a friend of the West living on their doorstep.
This might have a serious and adverse affect on the long-term relationships of many of Russia’s neighbors. Poland has now agreed to the stationing of American missiles on its soil after 18 months of negotiation. As Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister stated, “We have crossed the Rubicon,” referring to this move being fundamental to the future of his country’s relationship with Russia. Tusk went on to explain that this deal with America included a “mutual commitment” between his country and the USA to come to each other’s assistance in case of trouble.
This is clearly aimed at countering the perceived Russian threat although the Polish and American official stance is that the missile umbrella is really being put into place to counter the threat from various unnamed rogue states. The Russians don’t believe this and see it as a strategic threat and believe this move upsets the military balance in their region and as a consequence they have stated they will be aiming their missiles at these new missile installations.
The Russian action in South Ossetia and Georgia is not over even though they claim that it is. Listen to the words of the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, “One can forget about Georgia’s territorial integrity because I believe it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.”
On the ground the Russians give every indication that those two semi autonomous regions are being forcibly switched from nominal Georgian control to formal Russian hegemony. There might also be some of Georgia itself that the Russians will decide to keep as a victory prize. If any country dares to challenge this the whole of that country could well find itself back in the Russian empire.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
TheFrozenNorth
The Policy Exchange think tank has reported that some cities in the North of England are beyond saving. The kinds of places they’re referring to are Bradford, Sunderland and Liverpool. I have visited them all at various times and they do have a point. I prefer Liverpool to the other two we list here, just because the people are more fun, but although it is the European city of culture it isn’t where many want to live.
Having said that I lived for about a year in this city of the North, Leeds a few years back, and loved most things about it. My wife hated it; in fact anything north of Watford brings her out in a cold sweat.
It does seem colder and wetter when you drive north, even if this is our collective imagination. But the truth is that if you’re born and bred in London everywhere else seems to offer less.
The report from the think tank is translated to mean that the future of the northern cities is irredeemable and any of its inhabitants with ambition should leave for London, Cambridge or such places as Oxford, all in the south of the country.
The trouble with this idea is that it would bring another million or so people to our already overcrowded southern cities and this would have the effect of rendering them as unappealing as their northern neighbors, albeit for different reasons.
We cannot simply abandon the northern cities because our politicians and their regeneration plans have almost totally failed them. As stated earlier the picture of failure is not universal. Leeds has re-invented itself as the vibrant centre of its region, and Manchester’s city centre has been similarly transformed for the better. Yes, there is a great deal of work to be done in other, outlaying parts of these two cities to bring them to where they should be but there has been a successful start.
The Policy Exchange recommendations are already materializing as the populations in the northern cities has decreased whilst the southeastern part of this country simultaneously and relentlessly grows.
Concurrently many of our countrymen are leaving the country for the same reasons. They don’t only leave for a better climate, but because they feel their country has let them down, and better opportunities are becoming available elsewhere.
There is nothing new in any of this. Human beings go where the climate, both actual and economic is most comfortable. That’s why the UK itself has found itself hosting several million immigrants over its recent past. Why, if these people come here to seek a better life, should we expect anything different of our citizens leaving, or people emigrating internally within our country, moving for a better life?
The challenge is for our country to find better solutions within the cities we cannot afford to abandon to their fate.
Having said that I lived for about a year in this city of the North, Leeds a few years back, and loved most things about it. My wife hated it; in fact anything north of Watford brings her out in a cold sweat.
It does seem colder and wetter when you drive north, even if this is our collective imagination. But the truth is that if you’re born and bred in London everywhere else seems to offer less.
The report from the think tank is translated to mean that the future of the northern cities is irredeemable and any of its inhabitants with ambition should leave for London, Cambridge or such places as Oxford, all in the south of the country.
The trouble with this idea is that it would bring another million or so people to our already overcrowded southern cities and this would have the effect of rendering them as unappealing as their northern neighbors, albeit for different reasons.
We cannot simply abandon the northern cities because our politicians and their regeneration plans have almost totally failed them. As stated earlier the picture of failure is not universal. Leeds has re-invented itself as the vibrant centre of its region, and Manchester’s city centre has been similarly transformed for the better. Yes, there is a great deal of work to be done in other, outlaying parts of these two cities to bring them to where they should be but there has been a successful start.
The Policy Exchange recommendations are already materializing as the populations in the northern cities has decreased whilst the southeastern part of this country simultaneously and relentlessly grows.
Concurrently many of our countrymen are leaving the country for the same reasons. They don’t only leave for a better climate, but because they feel their country has let them down, and better opportunities are becoming available elsewhere.
There is nothing new in any of this. Human beings go where the climate, both actual and economic is most comfortable. That’s why the UK itself has found itself hosting several million immigrants over its recent past. Why, if these people come here to seek a better life, should we expect anything different of our citizens leaving, or people emigrating internally within our country, moving for a better life?
The challenge is for our country to find better solutions within the cities we cannot afford to abandon to their fate.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
MoralDeficit
Yesterday a colleague told me about a young woman he knows who had been date raped. This is not one of those apocryphal stories about someone who knows someone. This really happened to a real person. Not, as it turned out, to just one young lady, but to five of them. The culprit had raped five women that he was tried for. The police brought the prosecution and were successful. The punishment was a sentence of two years in jail. This will result in the culprit being released in about one year.
This equates to about two months for each rape.
At the same time as this if the crime was robbery the punishment would be much more severe. The message is that we value our possessions far more than our people. The result is that we face a moral deficit in which it’s understood, cool or even hip to stab, rape or even kill but you will be severely punished if you are caught with your hand in the cookie jar.
There is further evidence of this dual morality occurring every day where we, as a society, seem to value possessions far higher than people. It is a grave mistake and should be addressed.
In the final analysis it’s all about moral values or the lack of them. We have all witnessed a rise in binge drinking, misbehavior in young women, and apparent increase in knife attacks amongst British young men. In a society as rich as ours this is indicative of our loss of understanding of what’s right or wrong.
The solution surely isn’t the simple increase of policing, arrest and long- term incarceration. The UK and USA already have amongst the highest numbers of people under lock and key of any society. But the numbers keep rising, which means the systems are failing.
Unquestionably we must also face up to, understand and deal with the society’s ills, which have resulted in a disproportionate number of young black men in prison. This is not a question of color, but is about social inequality brought about by a series of problems within the larger society we all inhabit.
There are simply too many young Afro-Caribbean women left to raise too many of their children without the help or presence of their partners. Where are these young men, why do they leave, and how does this ever get corrected?
Without solutions these problems will become generational with the children of these dysfunctional single parent families repeating the same mistakes.
These are not problems about color, nor are the real question about the prisons; it is about a deeper, more difficult aspect of our society. We are not educating our children properly; they are not being given a moral code that is normally the job of both parents, school and our religious and spiritual upbringing. It might be fashionable to belittle old values but without them our society is lost for the foreseeable future.
This equates to about two months for each rape.
At the same time as this if the crime was robbery the punishment would be much more severe. The message is that we value our possessions far more than our people. The result is that we face a moral deficit in which it’s understood, cool or even hip to stab, rape or even kill but you will be severely punished if you are caught with your hand in the cookie jar.
There is further evidence of this dual morality occurring every day where we, as a society, seem to value possessions far higher than people. It is a grave mistake and should be addressed.
In the final analysis it’s all about moral values or the lack of them. We have all witnessed a rise in binge drinking, misbehavior in young women, and apparent increase in knife attacks amongst British young men. In a society as rich as ours this is indicative of our loss of understanding of what’s right or wrong.
The solution surely isn’t the simple increase of policing, arrest and long- term incarceration. The UK and USA already have amongst the highest numbers of people under lock and key of any society. But the numbers keep rising, which means the systems are failing.
Unquestionably we must also face up to, understand and deal with the society’s ills, which have resulted in a disproportionate number of young black men in prison. This is not a question of color, but is about social inequality brought about by a series of problems within the larger society we all inhabit.
There are simply too many young Afro-Caribbean women left to raise too many of their children without the help or presence of their partners. Where are these young men, why do they leave, and how does this ever get corrected?
Without solutions these problems will become generational with the children of these dysfunctional single parent families repeating the same mistakes.
These are not problems about color, nor are the real question about the prisons; it is about a deeper, more difficult aspect of our society. We are not educating our children properly; they are not being given a moral code that is normally the job of both parents, school and our religious and spiritual upbringing. It might be fashionable to belittle old values but without them our society is lost for the foreseeable future.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
PeaceDeficit
A few years back I recall being taken around several vast, abandoned military bases in the USA that had been converted to civilian use. I remember thinking that was fine if the bogeymen had actually vanished for good as we had been told, but what if he still lurked in the dark corners of this all too small planet we share?
A few years back the governments of the UK and USA solemnly declared that we were going to reap major rewards from the “peace dividend”.
Their contention being that no realistic, symmetrical threat from the rest of the world existed after the collapse of the evil Soviet Empire. Therefore almost immediately we reduced our spending on big-ticket defense items. We cut back on all those things we had thought necessary for us to fight a big land war in Europe and another, lesser conflict elsewhere simultaneously.
Yes, the government leaders stated, we would have to deal with the Islamic fundamentalists and similar types of threat, and yes, there were some little countries with whom our forces might have to contend. But for these asymmetric threats, there was not going to be a need for new building programs for capital ships, main battle tanks and big armies.
Instead we would need lighter, quicker forces we could deploy with extreme speed anywhere in the world. The days when we had to plan for pitched battles on the plains of Europe, or elsewhere, were over for good.
We could, so the argument went, therefore save money on unnecessary and wasteful defense expenditure. But my argument is that we were premature in these and similar reductions in our military spending and preparedness.
Tell these myths to the people of Georgia today. Now their country faces the threat of total occupation and only continues to exist as democratic and free entity while Russia decided its next move and tests the water of world opinion. The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been pleading for a ceasefire for the last two days but the Russians are stating that their first priority is the safety of Russian citizens who they are pledged to protect. First amongst these, we can suppose, are the Russian soldiers now advancing on all fronts in Georgia!
Both sides in this rapidly worsening conflict should remember that there never is a good war or a bad peace.
Now, when we in the Western democracies might well need those ships, planes and men we don’t have them readily available. No one pretends that Russia is the same kind of threat as the Soviet Union; but it might turn out to be worse.
It was far easier to identify the evil inherent in the brutal suppression of freedom and dissent within the Soviet Union and it was also less difficult to predict the actions of such a centrally administered bureaucracy. In other words we could pretty much work out what that ruling gerontocracy was going to do, and how we should react. They were unsmiling, clearly our sworn enemies and wore bad suits and looked the part of Bond villains.
China under the despotic leadership of Mao Tse-Tung was also much easier to comprehend in geo- political terms than the political doughnut it has since become. The Chinese People's Republic is a curious mixture of a capitalist covering of sweet enrichment over a hard core Communist center. No one can know for sure how that will work out in practice; the world has never experienced anything like it.
Look at the polished and media savvy leaders of China and Russia as they smile broadly for the cameras, and understand that the level of threat to freedom has probably increased in direct proportion to their level of sophistication, whilst at the same moment our economies hit free fall. At precisely the moment we need to be strong so we don’t have to act tough, we’re visibly too weak. Don’t, for a second, think the Russians and Chinese are not calculating this into their strategy.
You watch the brutal oppression of dissidents in Tibet and elsewhere under Chinese hegemony and you realize that should the Chinese government turn its mind, energy and resources to increasing its pressure on its Asian neighbors we have to be ready to assist in resistance. The situation in Taipei (Taiwain) is calm now, but can we safely assume this will continue if China is angered or becomes impatient?
Russia is also beginning to flex its dormant imperial muscle and it makes an unappealing and scary picture. We’ve got to realize where this can lead. If Russia finds it is possible to force the issue as desired in Georgia there will be little or nothing we can do to stop it taking similar actions in the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Therefore it is imperative that Nato, led by Britain and the United States does more than make polite noises of protest against Russia’s disguised takeover in Georgia.
This is where it becomes extremely difficult for Europe to act in a concerted manner against Russia. We have become very reliant on the supply of Russian energy to our collective power grids. If we push them about Georgia be ready for them to push back.
That leaves America alone to do more than make noises of protest. No one seriously expects that George Bush will get out the well-battered American big stick with which to combat Russia on the ground. This leaves the US with the discredited economic sanction weapon, which might end up hurting it more than it damages a now, much strengthened Russia.
The only military option the US would have is the use of its ships and planes to harass and bomb Russian military targets and they are simply not going to be that dangerously adventurous. This all leaves Russia with a free pass to do what it wants in the Caucasus region, and that might, very worryingly, awaken another dream for the Russian hawks. If they can get away with this in Georgia how about the Ukraine, and if that’s possible, wouldn’t it be great to get back at the Baltic States?
The UK and the USA and Nato must rethink priorities fast and re-evaluate medium to long-term military spending plans.
Otherwise as China holds onto Tibet and Russia toys with Georgia we have learned nothing. These two events roll out in different parts of the world, and seemingly don’t connect to the peace dividend until you realize that they form part of what is actually a peace deficit. As the Roman writer Vegetius stated, “Let him who desires peace prepare for war.”
You don’t walk down a dangerous, dark alley at night and declare to anyone who might listen, “come and get me, I’m not armed and can’t defend myself,” unless you’re crazy.
The big bad bogeyman never went away, he was just hiding in the dark whilst we went to sleep. It’s time to WAKE UP!
A few years back the governments of the UK and USA solemnly declared that we were going to reap major rewards from the “peace dividend”.
Their contention being that no realistic, symmetrical threat from the rest of the world existed after the collapse of the evil Soviet Empire. Therefore almost immediately we reduced our spending on big-ticket defense items. We cut back on all those things we had thought necessary for us to fight a big land war in Europe and another, lesser conflict elsewhere simultaneously.
Yes, the government leaders stated, we would have to deal with the Islamic fundamentalists and similar types of threat, and yes, there were some little countries with whom our forces might have to contend. But for these asymmetric threats, there was not going to be a need for new building programs for capital ships, main battle tanks and big armies.
Instead we would need lighter, quicker forces we could deploy with extreme speed anywhere in the world. The days when we had to plan for pitched battles on the plains of Europe, or elsewhere, were over for good.
We could, so the argument went, therefore save money on unnecessary and wasteful defense expenditure. But my argument is that we were premature in these and similar reductions in our military spending and preparedness.
Tell these myths to the people of Georgia today. Now their country faces the threat of total occupation and only continues to exist as democratic and free entity while Russia decided its next move and tests the water of world opinion. The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been pleading for a ceasefire for the last two days but the Russians are stating that their first priority is the safety of Russian citizens who they are pledged to protect. First amongst these, we can suppose, are the Russian soldiers now advancing on all fronts in Georgia!
Both sides in this rapidly worsening conflict should remember that there never is a good war or a bad peace.
Now, when we in the Western democracies might well need those ships, planes and men we don’t have them readily available. No one pretends that Russia is the same kind of threat as the Soviet Union; but it might turn out to be worse.
It was far easier to identify the evil inherent in the brutal suppression of freedom and dissent within the Soviet Union and it was also less difficult to predict the actions of such a centrally administered bureaucracy. In other words we could pretty much work out what that ruling gerontocracy was going to do, and how we should react. They were unsmiling, clearly our sworn enemies and wore bad suits and looked the part of Bond villains.
China under the despotic leadership of Mao Tse-Tung was also much easier to comprehend in geo- political terms than the political doughnut it has since become. The Chinese People's Republic is a curious mixture of a capitalist covering of sweet enrichment over a hard core Communist center. No one can know for sure how that will work out in practice; the world has never experienced anything like it.
Look at the polished and media savvy leaders of China and Russia as they smile broadly for the cameras, and understand that the level of threat to freedom has probably increased in direct proportion to their level of sophistication, whilst at the same moment our economies hit free fall. At precisely the moment we need to be strong so we don’t have to act tough, we’re visibly too weak. Don’t, for a second, think the Russians and Chinese are not calculating this into their strategy.
You watch the brutal oppression of dissidents in Tibet and elsewhere under Chinese hegemony and you realize that should the Chinese government turn its mind, energy and resources to increasing its pressure on its Asian neighbors we have to be ready to assist in resistance. The situation in Taipei (Taiwain) is calm now, but can we safely assume this will continue if China is angered or becomes impatient?
Russia is also beginning to flex its dormant imperial muscle and it makes an unappealing and scary picture. We’ve got to realize where this can lead. If Russia finds it is possible to force the issue as desired in Georgia there will be little or nothing we can do to stop it taking similar actions in the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Therefore it is imperative that Nato, led by Britain and the United States does more than make polite noises of protest against Russia’s disguised takeover in Georgia.
This is where it becomes extremely difficult for Europe to act in a concerted manner against Russia. We have become very reliant on the supply of Russian energy to our collective power grids. If we push them about Georgia be ready for them to push back.
That leaves America alone to do more than make noises of protest. No one seriously expects that George Bush will get out the well-battered American big stick with which to combat Russia on the ground. This leaves the US with the discredited economic sanction weapon, which might end up hurting it more than it damages a now, much strengthened Russia.
The only military option the US would have is the use of its ships and planes to harass and bomb Russian military targets and they are simply not going to be that dangerously adventurous. This all leaves Russia with a free pass to do what it wants in the Caucasus region, and that might, very worryingly, awaken another dream for the Russian hawks. If they can get away with this in Georgia how about the Ukraine, and if that’s possible, wouldn’t it be great to get back at the Baltic States?
The UK and the USA and Nato must rethink priorities fast and re-evaluate medium to long-term military spending plans.
Otherwise as China holds onto Tibet and Russia toys with Georgia we have learned nothing. These two events roll out in different parts of the world, and seemingly don’t connect to the peace dividend until you realize that they form part of what is actually a peace deficit. As the Roman writer Vegetius stated, “Let him who desires peace prepare for war.”
You don’t walk down a dangerous, dark alley at night and declare to anyone who might listen, “come and get me, I’m not armed and can’t defend myself,” unless you’re crazy.
The big bad bogeyman never went away, he was just hiding in the dark whilst we went to sleep. It’s time to WAKE UP!
Monday, August 11, 2008
GeorgianAdventure
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s Prime Minister and former President traveled direct from the Olympics to North Ossetia and visited his commanding generals as they invade South Ossetia and, possibly, in case you missed it, the country of Georgia.
For those of you who haven’t been following what happened so far here’s a quick refresher.
Since about 1800 the Georgians regarded Ossetia as part of their country, whereas the Russians similarly considered Georgia a province of Russia. North Ossetia is in the Russian Federation, South Ossetia is in Georgia.
South Ossetia speaks its own language, and most of its people chose to have Russian rather than Georgian passports. It’s not that they wanted to be Russian but they didn’t want to be Georgian. The result was that their tiny country has been semi autonomous for about a decade and a half.
Russia armed, encouraged and provoked their South Ossetian allies to attack the Georgians at every recent opportunity. The Georgians fell for the provocation and retaliated with much bigger scale attacks. This is exactly what the Russians were waiting for. Now they had an excuse to “protect” those with Russian passports in South Ossetia. The Russian peacekeepers of South Ossetia soon morphed into the advance forces of the Russian attack on Georgia.
The Russians have now driven the Georgians out of South Ossetia but are still attacking them in other parts of Georgia. The Georgians, now realizing their huge strategic mistake, are calling for a ceasefire, which the Russians are studiously ignoring. They are calling for the Georgians to totally withdraw from South Ossetia before they will ceasefire.
There are major repercussions that might well flow from these Russian provoked actions. Chief amongst these for the West is the breaching of the major power pipeline in Georgia. This means that there are countries that are totally reliant on that pipeline, which will now have to get their power via Russia.
Similarly there is another semi autonomous region called Abkhazia. Georgia has contended for nearly twenty years with these two regions, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia that want to control their own destiny. Both of these are supported by Russia as part of the Kremlin’s strategy to weaken Tbilisi’s authority.
The West, in particular America, has, some might say, mischievously stirred the embers of this fire. At the NATO summit in Bucharest the Americans pressed for Georgia and Ukraine’s membership of the alliance. Primarily the Germans temporarily blocked this move, but NATO still gave a commitment to offer membership to the two countries membership at some future date. Moscow saw this as a challenge to its dominance in the former Soviet republics.
Russia hasn’t been shy to make it crystal clear that it will do anything to prevent NATO’s expansion on its borders.
America and Britain have been intimately involved in providing arms and military assistance to the Georgians. The claim being that this support is in place to encourage Georgia as an independent, sovereign state.
We were also trying to protect the pipeline across Georgia that carries the crude oil from the Caspian to the Black Sea, which was the only export route bypassing Russia’s stranglehold on energy via this region.
This defeat for the Georgians might well signal the end of Mr. Saakashvili’s rule and set back Georgia’s efforts to establish itself as a modern Western-looking democracy for the foreseeable future. In any event, this small-scale war risks further undermines the already strained relations between Russia and the West. We mustn’t lose sight of the dangers of any conflict in a region like this, and that is the risk of it becoming a bigger war.
For those of you who haven’t been following what happened so far here’s a quick refresher.
Since about 1800 the Georgians regarded Ossetia as part of their country, whereas the Russians similarly considered Georgia a province of Russia. North Ossetia is in the Russian Federation, South Ossetia is in Georgia.
South Ossetia speaks its own language, and most of its people chose to have Russian rather than Georgian passports. It’s not that they wanted to be Russian but they didn’t want to be Georgian. The result was that their tiny country has been semi autonomous for about a decade and a half.
Russia armed, encouraged and provoked their South Ossetian allies to attack the Georgians at every recent opportunity. The Georgians fell for the provocation and retaliated with much bigger scale attacks. This is exactly what the Russians were waiting for. Now they had an excuse to “protect” those with Russian passports in South Ossetia. The Russian peacekeepers of South Ossetia soon morphed into the advance forces of the Russian attack on Georgia.
The Russians have now driven the Georgians out of South Ossetia but are still attacking them in other parts of Georgia. The Georgians, now realizing their huge strategic mistake, are calling for a ceasefire, which the Russians are studiously ignoring. They are calling for the Georgians to totally withdraw from South Ossetia before they will ceasefire.
There are major repercussions that might well flow from these Russian provoked actions. Chief amongst these for the West is the breaching of the major power pipeline in Georgia. This means that there are countries that are totally reliant on that pipeline, which will now have to get their power via Russia.
Similarly there is another semi autonomous region called Abkhazia. Georgia has contended for nearly twenty years with these two regions, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia that want to control their own destiny. Both of these are supported by Russia as part of the Kremlin’s strategy to weaken Tbilisi’s authority.
The West, in particular America, has, some might say, mischievously stirred the embers of this fire. At the NATO summit in Bucharest the Americans pressed for Georgia and Ukraine’s membership of the alliance. Primarily the Germans temporarily blocked this move, but NATO still gave a commitment to offer membership to the two countries membership at some future date. Moscow saw this as a challenge to its dominance in the former Soviet republics.
Russia hasn’t been shy to make it crystal clear that it will do anything to prevent NATO’s expansion on its borders.
America and Britain have been intimately involved in providing arms and military assistance to the Georgians. The claim being that this support is in place to encourage Georgia as an independent, sovereign state.
We were also trying to protect the pipeline across Georgia that carries the crude oil from the Caspian to the Black Sea, which was the only export route bypassing Russia’s stranglehold on energy via this region.
This defeat for the Georgians might well signal the end of Mr. Saakashvili’s rule and set back Georgia’s efforts to establish itself as a modern Western-looking democracy for the foreseeable future. In any event, this small-scale war risks further undermines the already strained relations between Russia and the West. We mustn’t lose sight of the dangers of any conflict in a region like this, and that is the risk of it becoming a bigger war.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Travel
This blog is very much about travel. Allow me to congratulate Heathrow airport on some of the recent changes. Today we pulled up outside Terminal 3 and it was clean, well policed and the roads were working well. The general opening up of the entire area in front of the terminal is a tremendous improvement, long overdue, but excellent.
I parked the car in the recently finished car park for Terminal 3, and it was also clean, easy to park in and well organized. All of this, so far was terrific, and was much to my surprise, as it wasn’t always thus.
Then we went to the Virgin check in which is also hugely enhanced by the widening of the area, which makes it feel much less crowded. There were problems with the conveyor belts but they were coping with the problem. I don’t know how that will work out if the problem continues.
Then we had breakfast upstairs which was edible, very pleasantly served and not too unreasonably priced by English standards. We also visited some shops and these were also acceptable. There is nothing terrible to report in any of these aspects.
Our only gripe was about the lousy signposting between the departure section of terminal 3 and its short stay car park. Please BAA, it would be really easy to correct this and we were not the only people with this observation.
Have you noticed how much it cost to renew your passport?
We are one of the most expensive countries in the world at £72 ($145) for an adult and nothing for a child. There is a comparison price list on the Passport Office web site and this confirms that we are top of the costs. If you live abroad it costs much more to simply renew your passport. I know this through my daughter who lives in the States. Her next passport is going to cost her $250 (£125) and for her children, presently 4 and 7 years old, $160 (£80) each.
Why should it cost that much more for those of us who live abroad to have our passport processed?
Another question we should all be interested in is why the UK produces 6.3 million passports per year whilst countries listed, with similar population to our own, such as Germany, Italy and France only issue 2.5 million, 1.4 million, and 3.3 million passports respectively?
Japan, with a population of nearly twice that of the UK only issued 4.3 million passports. Why is the UK producing so many more passports proportionately?
These figures are those issued by the Passport Office itself.
All of this came to light in the last day before my daughter and her children, Maya and Soli returned to their Los Angeles home. It is, as you with families who live a long way off know, wonderful when you get together with your kids after a long gap, but its awful when they have to go back.
I parked the car in the recently finished car park for Terminal 3, and it was also clean, easy to park in and well organized. All of this, so far was terrific, and was much to my surprise, as it wasn’t always thus.
Then we went to the Virgin check in which is also hugely enhanced by the widening of the area, which makes it feel much less crowded. There were problems with the conveyor belts but they were coping with the problem. I don’t know how that will work out if the problem continues.
Then we had breakfast upstairs which was edible, very pleasantly served and not too unreasonably priced by English standards. We also visited some shops and these were also acceptable. There is nothing terrible to report in any of these aspects.
Our only gripe was about the lousy signposting between the departure section of terminal 3 and its short stay car park. Please BAA, it would be really easy to correct this and we were not the only people with this observation.
Have you noticed how much it cost to renew your passport?
We are one of the most expensive countries in the world at £72 ($145) for an adult and nothing for a child. There is a comparison price list on the Passport Office web site and this confirms that we are top of the costs. If you live abroad it costs much more to simply renew your passport. I know this through my daughter who lives in the States. Her next passport is going to cost her $250 (£125) and for her children, presently 4 and 7 years old, $160 (£80) each.
Why should it cost that much more for those of us who live abroad to have our passport processed?
Another question we should all be interested in is why the UK produces 6.3 million passports per year whilst countries listed, with similar population to our own, such as Germany, Italy and France only issue 2.5 million, 1.4 million, and 3.3 million passports respectively?
Japan, with a population of nearly twice that of the UK only issued 4.3 million passports. Why is the UK producing so many more passports proportionately?
These figures are those issued by the Passport Office itself.
All of this came to light in the last day before my daughter and her children, Maya and Soli returned to their Los Angeles home. It is, as you with families who live a long way off know, wonderful when you get together with your kids after a long gap, but its awful when they have to go back.
Saturday, August 9, 2008
RussianTanksRoll
An odd thing happened at the Olympic opening ceremony yesterday.
Don’t worry; this is not going to be a sporting article, that would be at http://tonyklinger.co.uk/
It was the moment when a very worried look crossed the face of President George W. Bush as he sat in the heat of the Bird’s Nest super stadium. Looking like the front-page character of “Mad” comic books, Alfred E. Neumann, the President’s body language was perplexed, unhappy and hot. You could see he had something other than the two thousand and eight drummers working in syncopated harmony on his mind.
Bush stood up and spotted Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister and former President. A dark frown passed over the American’s face. Words were exchanged. You can imagine the conversation. “Hi Ya Vlad, what are your boys doing in Georgia?” Putin shrugs, “Is in my own back yard, is nothing to do with you, what about this drumming, I’m getting a headache!” Putin then shrugged and left after obtaining a headache pill from Laura Bush who smiled enigmatically and said nothing.
To me it is no coincidence that the Russian leader, because that’s what he still is despite stepping down from the Russian Presidency, is at the Olympics at precisely the moment when the Russian tanks were rolling towards the former Russian province of Georgia.
Formerly Georgia was a part of the Soviet Union, and the Russian leadership seems to have developed a bit of geographic amnesia. They clearly believe these annoying little countries on their borders should still be part of the empire, or at least be in their sphere of influence or control.
Russia doesn’t accept the progressive shift of Georgia and Ukraine towards the West. They are particularly upset and unsettled by both countries wanting to become parts of NATO.
So yesterday Russian tanks rolled into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia.
Russia is becoming progressively more unpredictable as it feels its growing economic muscle. This makes the Western response more difficult.
It isn’t easy to say why this "frozen" conflict escalated now. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that the Russians timed it for the very moment when the world’s eyes were on the Olympics.
The Russians claim that Georgia launched an invasion of South Ossetia, aiming to pacify the breakaway region. Georgia, meanwhile, stated that its troops entered the South Ossetian "capital" in response to escalating South Ossetian attacks, which have been going on for a week—years, really—as well as the Russian aerial bombardment of Georgian territory.
Pots and kettles come to mind. How can Russia accuse Georgia of doing precisely the same thing it does in Chechnya? The truth is we’re all hypocrites when it suits us. Before America gets on its own high horse don’t forget it’s historical attempts at invasion of Cuba, Canada and Mexico!
Previous tensions—both in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the other piece of Georgia that declared sovereignty—had been resolved without war. Someone wanted this to go further.
Both sides have deeper motives for fighting. The Russians want to prevent a Western oriented Georgia from joining NATO. George Bush called the country a "beacon of liberty"—has long wanted to do. Now the Russians will almost certainly succeed. No Western power has an interest in a military ally that is involved in a major military conflict with Russia.
The Georgian leadership, by contrast, had come to believe that the constant pressure of Russian aggression, coupled with the West's failure to accept Georgia into NATO, compelled them to demonstrate "self-reliance."
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili purchased a great many weapons in preparation for this. He apparently believed a military conflict was inevitable but could be won if he was clever. As of Friday night, with Russian soldiers fighting in South Ossetia—only a few short miles from Tblisi, the Georgian capital—it appears as if he’s made a potentially huge mistake. Russia didn’t send 150 tanks across that border to lose.
Georgia shouldn’t have played the brinksmanship game with the big bear to its north unless it didn’t mean a big hug. It should have stepped back from the precipice—and should still do so if given a chance—but Russia's deployment of such a large and carefully prepared force, not only in South Ossetia but in the rest of Georgia, is clearly an unacceptable breach of Georgia’s sovereignty and international bodies such as the UN must condemn it and order them out of their neighbor’s soil.
The whole thing reminds me of the historical claim by the German government that they had been attacked over the Polish border which they were resisting. That became the start of the Second World War.
Whoever is to blame for the present escalation, the West has little, if any influence on the outcome. Saakashvili's appeals for help and moral support—"This is not about Georgia," he told CNN, "it is about America, its values"—won’t help his country unless Russia allows them to. Putin didn’t look like he was feeling very well disposed to this idea when he shrugged in response to George Bush’s glad handing.
The truth is that the international community should have dealt with this conflict years ago. There was a dangerous security vacuum in the Caucuses; and that always makes war more likely.
In the most dangerous conflict between ideologies since the Cuba missile crisis there is potential for human suffering on an immense scale.
Georgia is an eager ally of the USA, and a successful Russian invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, reflects poorly on the West. Our moral cowardice, economic weakness, over extension and distraction elsewhere, ineptitude, lack of ideas, eliminated any thought of our involvement. Now it’s probably too late.
Don’t worry; this is not going to be a sporting article, that would be at http://tonyklinger.co.uk/
It was the moment when a very worried look crossed the face of President George W. Bush as he sat in the heat of the Bird’s Nest super stadium. Looking like the front-page character of “Mad” comic books, Alfred E. Neumann, the President’s body language was perplexed, unhappy and hot. You could see he had something other than the two thousand and eight drummers working in syncopated harmony on his mind.
Bush stood up and spotted Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister and former President. A dark frown passed over the American’s face. Words were exchanged. You can imagine the conversation. “Hi Ya Vlad, what are your boys doing in Georgia?” Putin shrugs, “Is in my own back yard, is nothing to do with you, what about this drumming, I’m getting a headache!” Putin then shrugged and left after obtaining a headache pill from Laura Bush who smiled enigmatically and said nothing.
To me it is no coincidence that the Russian leader, because that’s what he still is despite stepping down from the Russian Presidency, is at the Olympics at precisely the moment when the Russian tanks were rolling towards the former Russian province of Georgia.
Formerly Georgia was a part of the Soviet Union, and the Russian leadership seems to have developed a bit of geographic amnesia. They clearly believe these annoying little countries on their borders should still be part of the empire, or at least be in their sphere of influence or control.
Russia doesn’t accept the progressive shift of Georgia and Ukraine towards the West. They are particularly upset and unsettled by both countries wanting to become parts of NATO.
So yesterday Russian tanks rolled into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia.
Russia is becoming progressively more unpredictable as it feels its growing economic muscle. This makes the Western response more difficult.
It isn’t easy to say why this "frozen" conflict escalated now. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that the Russians timed it for the very moment when the world’s eyes were on the Olympics.
The Russians claim that Georgia launched an invasion of South Ossetia, aiming to pacify the breakaway region. Georgia, meanwhile, stated that its troops entered the South Ossetian "capital" in response to escalating South Ossetian attacks, which have been going on for a week—years, really—as well as the Russian aerial bombardment of Georgian territory.
Pots and kettles come to mind. How can Russia accuse Georgia of doing precisely the same thing it does in Chechnya? The truth is we’re all hypocrites when it suits us. Before America gets on its own high horse don’t forget it’s historical attempts at invasion of Cuba, Canada and Mexico!
Previous tensions—both in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the other piece of Georgia that declared sovereignty—had been resolved without war. Someone wanted this to go further.
Both sides have deeper motives for fighting. The Russians want to prevent a Western oriented Georgia from joining NATO. George Bush called the country a "beacon of liberty"—has long wanted to do. Now the Russians will almost certainly succeed. No Western power has an interest in a military ally that is involved in a major military conflict with Russia.
The Georgian leadership, by contrast, had come to believe that the constant pressure of Russian aggression, coupled with the West's failure to accept Georgia into NATO, compelled them to demonstrate "self-reliance."
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili purchased a great many weapons in preparation for this. He apparently believed a military conflict was inevitable but could be won if he was clever. As of Friday night, with Russian soldiers fighting in South Ossetia—only a few short miles from Tblisi, the Georgian capital—it appears as if he’s made a potentially huge mistake. Russia didn’t send 150 tanks across that border to lose.
Georgia shouldn’t have played the brinksmanship game with the big bear to its north unless it didn’t mean a big hug. It should have stepped back from the precipice—and should still do so if given a chance—but Russia's deployment of such a large and carefully prepared force, not only in South Ossetia but in the rest of Georgia, is clearly an unacceptable breach of Georgia’s sovereignty and international bodies such as the UN must condemn it and order them out of their neighbor’s soil.
The whole thing reminds me of the historical claim by the German government that they had been attacked over the Polish border which they were resisting. That became the start of the Second World War.
Whoever is to blame for the present escalation, the West has little, if any influence on the outcome. Saakashvili's appeals for help and moral support—"This is not about Georgia," he told CNN, "it is about America, its values"—won’t help his country unless Russia allows them to. Putin didn’t look like he was feeling very well disposed to this idea when he shrugged in response to George Bush’s glad handing.
The truth is that the international community should have dealt with this conflict years ago. There was a dangerous security vacuum in the Caucuses; and that always makes war more likely.
In the most dangerous conflict between ideologies since the Cuba missile crisis there is potential for human suffering on an immense scale.
Georgia is an eager ally of the USA, and a successful Russian invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, reflects poorly on the West. Our moral cowardice, economic weakness, over extension and distraction elsewhere, ineptitude, lack of ideas, eliminated any thought of our involvement. Now it’s probably too late.
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